When you are close to a big win, it’s comforting to know you are going to have a good night, but in my mind, I can’t help but play the “what if” game sometimes.
“What if” Jordan Montgomery hangs on and gets the win last night?
“What if” Carlos Gonzalez gets one more AB?
“What if” Daniel Robertson doesn’t save a run in the bottom of ninth to win the game for the Indians and E5 gets one more AB?
“What if” I had played Player C instead of Player E?
That was me last night after a sweat. It’s fun, all of it, even if you don’t take home the jackpot, the idea of it happening or possibility of it happening, makes DFS so fun.
I hope those of you reading this have been able to sweat it out in a DFS tournament. I hope that sweat paid off, but if you didn’t take home the top prize, I hope you had fun trying to get there.
That’s what I feel can make you successful in DFS – having fun. If you aren’t having fun, then you might need to take a step back and take a break. No sense in lighting money on fire or watching it swirl around the drain, figuratively speaking.
I had to learn to get back to the fun of it all myself, and since I changed my mindset/outlook, I couldn’t be happier with the results. Even if I have an off night, I brush it off and move on to the next slate. That helps, not only keep the fun factor, but keeping my recency biases in check.
Anyway, I didn’t come away with a life-changing win last night, but I got to feel the sweat, and it was great. Overall, a great Tuesday night of DFS for this guy and I hope something in this narrative helps you arrive at a different mindset if you are struggling. I think it’s important to hear from others who have success after they have had a run of bad luck. You will get there, too, DFS BABIP doesn’t stick around for ever and positive regression is looming.
Now on to tonight, shall we?
It’s a 10-game affair in the majors with yet again a couple of games we have to monitor due to the weather. We have Chris Sale on the mound tonight against my Rangers. He gets the Kershaw effect in the Index – he is the top play on the board, so he’s an unofficial official pick for me, but you don’t need me to tell you to play him.
What you might need are some bats/value pitching options to play to be able to squeeze Sale into your lineups, so that’s what we are doing for today’s Index.
Let’s get to it!
Carlos Gonzalez – OF – Colorado Rockies – $4,500
Analysis: Carlos Gonzalez is finally starting to hit the ball in recent days. It’s taken awhile for me to come around on CarGo, but perhaps we are going to see a long heater from him. He’s got a hit in 10 of his last 11 games and tonight faces Jeremy Hellickson who is making his next start despite having some back issues last time out. Hellickson has been extremely lucky against lefties this season (.252 wOBA, .149 BABIP) despite a 31% hard contact rate and a 1.17 HR/9 rate so far. The Rockies are the first NL team to 30 wins, so they are really good. They also got Trevor Story back, so this lineup is jacked. CarGo should see plenty of good pitches considering there’s no safety in this lineup in a hitter’s park.
Josh Bell – 1B – Pittsburgh Pirates – $3,900
Analysis: I finally have come to grips that SunTrust Field is not going to be Julio Teheran’s best friend. The old adage was play lefties against Teheran, and now that strategy is even more enhanced by this new ballpark that is designed for power lefty bats. Against lefties this season, Teheran has a .399 wOBA, a 1.86 HR/9 rate and is allowing 40% hard contact. As for Josh Bell’s spot in this puzzle, he mashes RH pitching this season – .360 wOBA and a .225 ISO.
George Springer – OF – Houston Astros – $4,200
Analysis: People are bagging on George Springer last night for his lack of offense against “Pig Shit,” a new nickname a buddy of mine gave Jordan Zimmermann. So I feel this is a perfect time to hop on because recency bias. But I say, whatever, Springer is going to be up and down. When he’s up, he’s way up and tonight he faces a lefty in the lead-off spot. Springer has been putting up fantasy points despite striking out multiple times in four straight. Springer goes up against lefty Daniel Norris who is going to be giving up more home runs than his 0.54 HR/9 rate against RH bats this season. Why is that? Because he gives up 46.4% hard contact to RH bats and has a 1.40 GB/FB rate, so he’s not an elite ground ball guy. There’s a short porch in right that swallows long fly balls and Springer can hit lefties – .341 wOBA, a .282 ISO and a 45% hard contact rate this season – oh and he’s only $4,200.
