It’s payday!
Well, at least for me in regard to my full-time job as a teacher.
Hopefully, for you, it’s DFS payday and you have the Value Index to thank later on.
Today is a really ugly split slate of games. We have 5 early games with some weather to keep an ey eon and we have 6 evening games, also with weather to keep an eye on.
For the sake of today’s picks, I am going to give you 3 early and 3 evening picks.
I am not much for chit cat today, so let’s fire away!
Early
Carlos Gonzalez – OF – Colorado Rockies – $4,400
Analysis: Well, this play worked last night and so CarGo makes the list again. He’s seeing the ball well and starting to put it all together. Vince Velasquez has the stuff to strike out 10 on any given night, but he’s dreadful against left-handed bats and is pitching in a small ballpark this afternoon. Against lefties, Double V has allowed a .375 wOBA and a 1.80 HR/9 this season. CarGo and the next fella are elite plays in the early slate.
Charlie Blackmon – OF – Colorado Rockies – $5,600
Analysis: Chuckie is another Rockies’ lefty that is seeing the ball really well…I mean REALLY well. In his last 11 games, Blackmon has EIGHT multi-hit games and hits in all but one. Needless to say, he might be the hottest player in baseball right now and his price reflects his success and daily upside. I’ve discussed Velasquez already and guess what? The same goes for Blackmon. Both Blackmon and CarGo have had success against Velasquez albeit in small sample sizes.
Jean Segura – SS – Seattle Mariners – $4,100
Analysis: My rule when it comes to Seattle players against lefties is to always play Nelson Cruz. While Cruz gets a lefty in Gio Gonzalez today, I am not in love with the play partially due to a lack of success against Gio (but I guess he’s due for one now, right?). Anyway, I am switching gears and targeting Jean Segura, the M’s leadoff man, who has actually struggled with lefties this season, only a .245 wOBA and a .000 ISO. But no need to worry, Segura has a 45% hard contact rate against southpaws this season, so he’s making good contact, the hits just haven’t fallen yet, and they will. The added bonus here is that Segura is 7-for-13 with a double against Gio, AND he has four steals…so yea, Segura has lots of upside here today.
Late
Hanley Ramirez – 1B – Boston Red Sox – $4,500
Analysis: i really wanted to put a 3-man Boston stack as my three picks for the evening slate, but I couldn’t leave out an Arizona pick. Nick Martinez sucks and I don’t care if he has to troll me 5 more times, I am stacking against him no matter what. I don’t think he trolls me again in this spot though as the Red Sox seem to be clicking on offense right now. First Red Sox player on the Index is Hanley, who is 4-for-6 with 2 doubles, 2 HRs, 3 walks and no strikeouts against Martinez in his career. I think Hanley has his number. Normally we want lefties against Martinez, but Hanley can hit RH pitchers with the best of them and benefits in Fenway with the Green Monster.
Andrew Benintendi – OF – Boston Red Sox – $4,600
Analysis: Now here’s a lefty against Nick Martinez tonight – the Super Nintendo! While Fenway can help zap lefty power, I am going to make sure I have Benintendi in a lot of lineups tonight. The price is up, but that’s OK with me because Martinez has been dreadful against lefties in his career. Currently, Martinez has allowed only a .316 wOBA to lefties this season. His peripherals suggest that is not going to last long as he carries a 34% hard contact rate allowed and a 1.80 HR/9 rate this season, too. I hope the weather cooperates today and we can target this game heavily. Mitch Moreland and Xander Bogaerts are also two plays I really love in this spot, so keep them in mind too.
David Peralta – OF – Arizona Diamondbacks – $4,400
Analysis: A power lefty getting to take swings in Miller Park, a stadium that heavily favors lefty bats? Hell yes! Jake Lamb is a great play today as well, but it’s Peralta at a cheap price and hitting in the two-hole that has me salivating. Zach Davies is pitching for the Brew Crew and he’s struggled keeping the ball in the park this season. He owns a .352 wOBA to lefty bats and is allowing a 1.82 HR/9 rate this season along with a 33% hard contact rate. Looks like lefty bats are going to occupy a lot of my lineups today.
