Welcome back to another edition of the Value Index!
Today we get another 15-game slate to tackle, our second one in as many days. While this slate doesn’t have the stud pitchers to choose from, there are plenty of bats in great spots we can exploit!
To break that down vaguely, we have the Nats and Diamondbacks facing off against lefties, the Rangers and Astros in premium matchups against opposing pitching, We have Mike Pelfrey on the mound, the Cubs’ lefties in a prime spot against a solid pitcher that struggles with southpaw bats. The A’s are up against a lefty, we have a game in Fenway and a red-hot Pirates team in the Great American Smallpark.
There’s lots to dissect and for today’s Index, we do not have a pitching recommendation. Jake Arrieta is on the mound tonight, but he’s been home run prone and struggled of late, so I am not fully ready to play him myself, so I can’t make him an official pick.
Good luck tonight!
Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Arizona Diamondbacks – $4,900
Analysis: I don’t think Gio Gonzalez is a good pitcher. He walks too many batters and if you roster him in DFS, the points always seem to be subtracting due to his lack of control. Tonight he gets a terrible matchup in the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have three or four very potent bats that make it difficult for southpaws. The main guy on my radar is Paul Goldschmidt. The guy destroys lefties and we are getting him under $5K tonight. He’s also destroyed Gio so far in his career, going 8-for-12 with 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 RBIs and 2 steals. The D-Backs are a running team when they get on base, and Goldy can steal with the best of him, increasing his floor and upside. Goldy hasn’t hit lefties as well this season, but he’s walked 21% of the time. SInce 2016, Goldy has a .428 wOBA with an ISO over .200 and a 46% hard contact rate. Gio gives up 33% hard contact to RH pitching since 2016.
Gregory Polanco – OF- Pittsburgh Pirates – $4,100
Analysis: No one plays Polanco and he’s been one of my favorite guys to use in all formats since he came into the league. He’s off to a slow start this year, but he’s in a great spot to notch his first home run of the season. He’s in the Great American Smallpark against a Rookie pitcher (and his name is Rookie!), a Reds prospect that, so far, has given up a .553 wOBA to lefties, but that is a small sample size. But overall, Rookie Davis’ peripherals show he’s not very good, giving up almost 3 HR/9 this season with a 5.32 SIERA. The Pirates are red hot right now and are one of my favorite stacks of the day. Polanco is going in all lineups tonight. He has 2 BBs and a steal against Davis in his lone start against him earlier this year.
Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Miami Marlins – $4,300
Analysis: The next two guys need no introduction. They are both going up against lefties, and you know, if you have been reading, I have a few rules for DFS. One of those rules is “Play Giancarlo when he’s facing a lefty.” Tonight, Giancarlo is facing a lefty in Blake Snell. Yes, the ballpark isn’t favorable, but Stanton is cheaper that usual. Snell has limited the damage so far this year and has a lower ERA than his SIERA, by nearly two points, meaning he’s getting rather lucky (.234 BABIP as well). Stanton is one of the best in the game against lefties since 2016 and has 3 of the 4 Marlin’s HR’s against lefties this season. He will be in all of my lineups tonight.
Buster Posey – C – San Francisco Giants – $3,600
Analysis: The catcher position has a lot of great options tonight and so it’s going to make it difficult for me to pick just one. I love Brian McCann against Nick Martinez and I love Josh Phegley against flyball pitcher Hector Santiago. But I will always have my shares of Posey, who again is up against a lefty tonight in Julio Urias. Posey homered off Kershaw, disappointed a bit against Alex Wood and now gets a crafty young lefty to tackle, one he has a couple of walks against this season. The only thing that might draw me away from Posey tonight is not only the options at C, but that Urias doesn’t throw a lot of pitches. But all it takes is one mistake for Posey to let fly.
A.J. Pollock – OF – Arizona Diamondbacks – $4,100
Analysis: Another Diamondback on my radar is Pollock, who already has double-digit steals this season and is flashing his 2015 season all over again. He’s been a cash game staple of mine for quite some time and I am not afraid to keep returning for more. He’s got Gio tonight and is a perfect player to pair with Goldy. He leads off, is 4-for-9 with a steal against Gio and continue to be one of the more underrated outfielders for DFS. There are a ton of outfielders i love tonight, but Pollock is right up there in my daily rankings.
Josh Reddick – OF – Houston Astros – $3,700
Analysis: There’s no bigger pitching troll in the majors than Nick Martinez. But a road game against a quality Astros’ squad that took part in an 8-homer game last night does not bode well for the Martinez gas can. This is a spot to target lefties against Martinez (but righties are great too!). Reddick fits the mold against Martinez, who has an insanely high .388 wOBA and 2.21 HR/9 rate since 2016. Reiddkc also has the track record against Martinez, going 7-for-14 with 2 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run and 4 RBI. I will be stacking this game all over the place and Reiddck will make my rosters quite a bit at under $4K.
