It’s another Monday and another edition of the Value Index.
We are starting to get well into May, and we continue to have some surprising events going on in Major League Baseball.
The Reds and Yankees continue to sport juggernaut offenses, the Rockies, too. All are in first place in their divisions! Not the Cubs. Not the Red Sox. Not the Cardinals. Not the Giants. The Royals have the worst winning percentage in the league and the new Braves’ stadium might be the new Coors Field.
Of course we still have a long way to go, but it will be interesting to see how much of what we see right now remains a month from now, two months from now and well into September.
The Value Index is a premium article today, BUT I have 7 picks, so I am throwing in an extra pick for free. Hope you enjoy what you read and that it brings you great success on tonight’s 10-game slate!
Manny Machado – 3B – Baltimore Orioles – $5,100
Analysis: Perception is one thing, diving into the numbers is another. Bias can control how we feel about a player, and so can statistics. Generally, the stats say Manny Machado doesn’t hit lefties well. Well, he doesn’t hit them poorly, just not as much as we would like to believe…except in 2017. Machado is destroying left-handed pitching so far this season.While the rest of the team can’t hit a ball the size of a globe if thrown by a southpaw, Machado has been dominant, posting a .422 wOBA and a .406 ISO with 4 of the team’s 10 homeruns off of lefties this season. Even more spectacular is Machado’s 62.8% hard contact rate against lefties this season. The sample size is small, but the production is there. Machado typically always hits better at home than on the road and tonight he gets Gio Gonzalez, who is bound to blow up at some point. Machado has started to find his stroke and maybe it’s because Chris Sale threw behind him intentionally. Whatever it was, he’s finally starting to produce with 5 home runs in his last 10 games, including 4 in his last 6. Gonzalez allows a 33% hard contact rate to RH bats since 2016. His ERA is 1.64 but his SIERA is 4.51. All of the regression won’t come tonight, but Machado is in a good spot to help get it started.
Wilmer Flores – 1B/3B – New York Mets – $3,100
Analysis: Matt Moore has been getting pounded away from AT&T Park, and I personally found that out the hard way the last time he pitcher. After the Mets got blanked on Sunday, they will be in a decent spot to rough up a guy who has struggled this season. There aren’t a lot of healthy Mets to choose from in this spot, but there is one that sticks out and that’s Wilmer Flores, who should bat in the heart of the order today. SInce 2016, Flores has a .463 wOBA and a .381 ISO with 13 home runs against southpaws. This season, Moore has allowed a .346 wOBA with a 1.69 HR/9 and a 33% hard contact rate against lefties. Flores has just 2 ABs against Moore and is 0-for-2, so I don’t know if he’s due, but Flores is a cheap play that offers a lot of pop.
Blake Snell – SP – Tampa Bay Rays – $7,400
Analysis: Let me preface this with, I am sorry if this pick goes bad. I can’t count how many times I’ve played guys in this pricing tier this season that have absolutely let me down. Now with that said, Snell is in a dreamy matchup against a lackluster Royals offense that can’t hit anything. Like I said above, the Royals have the worst winning percentage in all of baseball and they are the worst offense against left-handed pitching. Snell hasn’t been perfect himself as walks have really, really been his kryptonite this season. Let’s hope an offense that provides some of the least worrisome power in the league helps him settle in a groove. Snell owns a 7.76 K/9 this season and an 8.91 K/9 vs. RH and an 11.1 K/9 vs. LH bats since the start of 2016. His walk rate is 6.03 BB/9 this season, so let’s hope that’s not sustainable starting tonight. Oh, the Royals, meanwhile, have a .183 batting average, a .232 wOBA, a .080 ISO and a 23% K rate against lefties this season. If they erupt for power and runs today, I don’t know anyone will see that coming.
