Well, I took a longer than wanted hiatus from the Value Index this past week, but **** happens, right?
Anyway, I am in the last week before having a couple of months off for summer and won’t be so damn tired at night and hopefully stress free!
So let’s get back at it.
Tuesday brings us a full 15-game slate, a day removed from a blasphemous 3-game late Monday night slate.
June is here and this is the time when we might start seeing more trades moving forward. We’ve seen Jay Bruce move along to Philly. Who will be next?
We also should see some notable prospect call ups and Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel should be finding a team some time soon.
As for this 15-game slate, let me say that the Braves, while not cheap tonight, are one of my favorite stacks to pay up for. You won’t see them on the value portion of this write-up, but I will be looking for cheap bats to fit in the stacks I like.
Now, let’s get it on!
HITTERS
Willy Adames – SS – Tampa Bay Rays – $2,500
Analysis: It’s uncertain if Pham and Garcia will be back in the lineup tonight. If they are, the Rays are really sneaky as a stack today. Adames and the Rays draw Ryan Carpenter, a noodle-armed lefty that the Tigers are almost forced to roll out into the rotation at this point. Here’s Carpenter’s numbers against RH bats this season – .370 wOBA, .217 BABIP, 39% hard contact, 2.93 HR/9 and 39% fly ball rate. Adames has been so unlucky this season against lefties. He has a .189 BABIP but a 40% hard hit rate. He’s cheap and should hit in the middle of the order.
Travis Shaw – 3B – Milwaukee Brewers – $2,200
Analysis: Shaw is supposed to come off the IL today and hopefully some time in the minors (which hasn’t gone super well) and some home cooking will help him get back on track. Tonight the Brewers draw Pablo Lopez, who has been a tough pitcher at home, but continues to lit up on the road. He draws a tough lineup with a tough ballpark for pitchers to pitch in. Shaw has a below average BABIP, a 40% hard hit rate and a 14% BB rate against right-handed pitchers. The power hasn’t arrived yet, but some positive regression is in order. This price is too cheap for a potential home run in a park that lefty friendly.
Hanser Albert0 – 2B – Baltimore Orioles – $2,500
Analysis: The Orioles are my favorite value stack of the night. They draw Rangers’ lefty Drew Smyly, who has been awful this year…to both sides of the plate. So stack them up tonight, all handedness. Alberto is one of the better value plays overall tonight. He’s been hitting in the leadoff spot and he’s facing his former team. Against lefties this season, Alberto owns a whopping .401 wOBA, a .156 ISO, and 35% hard hit rate. Smyly, meanwhile, owns the following numbers against RH bats in 2019: .364 wOBA, 5.81 xFIP, 51% hard hit rate, 6.32 BB/9 and a 2.01 HR/9.
