Welcome to my first NBA Hot Sheet! For those of you who subscribe and read our NFL content you likely have seen my NFL Hot Sheet. I have transferred the same concept over to the NBA for this season and will publish an NBA Hot Sheet every weekday when there are at least four games on the main slate. I will also include my “Droppin’ Dimes” (top 10 plays) for each slate based on the Hot Sheet and overall analysis of the slate.
There is a lot of number crunching behind the scenes to finally come with the overall rating for each position per team. The ratings consider each team’s offensive performance and their opponent’s defensive performance for the season and last five games (Note that last season’s numbers are used until we get data for this NBA season). Since “positions” in the NBA are also somewhat subjective I also blend the positional DvP numbers such as SG is made up of 70% SG stats, 10% PG stats and 20% SF stats to try to account for the variability of positional matchups. Some of the statistics and factors that are weighted to make up the final rating include:
- Vegas lines (spread & totals)
- Pace of play
- Points
- FG Attempts & efficiency
- 3-point Attempts & efficiency
- FT Attempts
- Rebounds
- Assists
- Steals
- Blocks
- Turnovers
The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.
Hot Sheet for October 18th
Droppin’ Dimes
James Harden (HOU) – Harden posted a double-double last night to help the Rockets beat the Warriors and even though he will be playing a back-to-back Wednesday in Sacramento it is a favorable matchup and Chris Paul may sit it out to rest his leg injury.
Damian Lillard (POR) – Lillard is in a situation much like Harden, where he has a very favorable matchup against the Suns and he will be without is backcourt mate CJ McCollum who was suspended for this game. Lillard could see an increase in minutes and had an increase of 2.2% in his usage with McCollum off the court last season.
LaMarcus Aldridge (SA) – Keeping the theme going of utilizing a star player when the team is missing their other star player, let’s go with Aldridge for a Spurs’ team that is without Kawhi Leonard. Aldridge had a 4.3% usage increase without Leonard last season and gets a favorable matchup against the Timberwolves who allowed the 8th most points and 3rd highest FG % to opposing PFs last season.
Myles Turner (IND) – Turner should continue to improve in his third season in the league and be looked to more often on offense with Paul George out of town. Turner performed very well against the weak Nets interior defense last season posting 16.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 3.8 blocks in four games.
Mike Conley (MEM) – Conley set a career-high in points (20.5), rebounds (3.5) and three-pointers (2.5) per game last season. He will be the primary offensive threat for the Grizzlies on Wednesday with Marc Gasol battling the twin towers (Cousins & Davis) for the Pelicans. The Pelicans allowed the 4th most points (23.5), the most 3pt attempts (7.9) and 3rd most rebounds (6.1) to opposing PGs last season.
Bradley Beal (WAS) – Beal lit up the 76ers last season averaging 30.0 points over two games. The 76ers struggled to contain opposing SGs last year, giving up the 8th most points (21.7), 7th most assists (4.7) and 2nd most steals (2.0) to the position. It may be a new-look 76ers team but Beal should continue to have his way on offense.
Victor Oladipo (IND) – Getting exposure to the Pacers playing at home against the up-tempo Nets is a must tonight. The newly acquired Oladipo should put on a good showing in his debut against a Nets’ team that allowed the 2nd most points (22.6), the most rebounds (6.7) and 3rd most steals (1.9) to SGs last year. Meanwhile, Oladipo averaged 23.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals in two matchups against the Nets last season.
Khris Middleton (MIL) – The Bucks’ offense will continue to flow through Giannis Antetokounmpo and Middleton this season. It will be interesting to see how the Celtics’ matchup with Antetokounmpo and Middleton now that Gordon Hayward is out leaving them with a bunch of young wing players. Small forward could be a tough position to fill tonight so Middleton is a solid mid-priced option.
Willie Cauley-Stein (SAC) – I want to get a piece of the Kings’ frontcourt against the Rockets on Wednesday. Watch Zach Randolph’s status, if he is out then Skal Labissiere could also be an option. However, if you have the salary space or Randolph plays than I prefer WCS who averaged 12.8 points and 8.6 rebounds over the final 20 games of last season including five double-doubles.
Jeremy Lamb (CHA) – Lamb is a strong value option on Wednesday night’s slate. He will join the starting lineup for the Hornets with Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist out. Lamb should see at least 30 minutes and had a small increase in his usage when Batum and MKG were off the court last season.
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