We shall not speak of politics in this space, so forget what today is regarding that realm of the world and focus on tonight’s 9-game NBA slate.
This is the first week of the NBA version of the Value Index, I hope you have found it helpful for you and you stick with it the remainder of the season. Next week we will go to two days of premium versions and two free versions. That will be the schedule each week until our coverage of the NBA moves over for baseball.
From the looks of things, it doesn’t appear that we have a lot of injury news to sift through, which is great because that has been such a beating during this stretch of the season without late swap.
We also have a huge matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets. This is the third straight game of a gauntlet for the Warriors, who have actually made mince meat of the Cavaliers and Thunder this week. Houston has been playing exceptionally well at home and has been a better defense team than many expected. James Harden (more on him later) has been playing at the highest of high levels this season, so that could be a really fun game to watch should it stay close, and of course, a great source for fantasy points.
If you are just joining in on the Value Index, I make five picks using DraftKings pricing and eligibility. I will provide one point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward and center that i am going to likely use as a core for either cash games or tournaments. My picks are guys I like to make 5x or better based on their salary and matchup. I have steadily switched my strategy this year from a one-lineup, cash game heavy player to a no cash game and multiple lineup player. The switch has yielded much more success during this part of the season. If I like a player, I likely would play them in a cash game whether they feel volatile or not. I write the Index the night before, so my picks could change in my lineups due to injury notifications or lineup changes.
Let’s dive into my favorite plays of the slate…
Point Guard
James Harden – Houston Rockets – vs. Golden State Warriors – $12,200
Analysis: I think front court has some really strong options in all tiers, but PG is not a position where I am finding a lot of guys that I just love. I want to love someone when I recommend them to you and I love James Harden tonight. Most of the time I try to stay away from rostering high-priced studs on DraftKings and it’s worked out pretty well when I do. Bu there are always exceptions to the rule. Harden plays shooting guard, but has the ball in his hands a ton on the offensive side of the ball. I love Harden because he is at home where he averages 5 more fantasy points per game, and this game has an insanely high total (236) with the Warriors favored by 5. It’s the third strong opponent for the Warriors, who allow 42 points per game to SGs and 53.5 fantasy points per game to the point guard position. Harden plays both of those roles and he put up 70+ fantasy points in these teams first meeting of the season. Harden should eat.
Shooting Guard
Klay Thompson – Golden State Warriors – vs. Houston Rockets – $6,500
Analysis: All of the Warriors’ players prices have come up in the past week, especially Durant coming off a 70-point effort vs. his former team. I am not chasing that price increase when I can find value elsewhere. Klay is more of a tournament play considering if he gets hot, he can pile up the points in a hurry. For Thompson, he’s facing one of the worst teams defending SGs in the league as the Rockets allow 44.3 points per game to the position. Klay has shown a fairly high floor this year, between 26-28 points. He’s going to get points more for his shooting and 3-point attempts than stuffing the peripherals, but anything he gets outside of his point total is just an added bonus. It’s a high total, low spread and a great position vs. the opposing defense is a solid recipe for success.
Small Forward
Paul George – Indiana Pacers – vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $7.800
Analysis: This suggestion is more of a raw points play for cash games than one I like for tournaments. George is the leader in the clubhouse for usage rate. At 28.6%, George has one of the best matchups on the board against the Lakers, who allow 45.3 FPPG to small forwards. This game has second highest total of the slate and George had nearly 50 points in these two teams meeting earlier in the season. Luol Deng looks like he may not play, leaving rookie Brandon Ingram to play opposite George. Ingram has the length, but George has the size and strength to have his way with the rookie. I don’t like paying up for SF most of the time, but I feel George is the safest bet to score 40 fantasy points in a plum matchup on the road against the Lakers.
Power Forward
Joel Embiid – Philadelphia 76ers – vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $8,400
Analysis: There’s only one guy I will pay up for with a minutes restriction and you guessed it, that person is the Process. His price leaves little room for upside with his minutes restriction, but this is one of those situations where I like the possibility of a close game with overtime potential. If you have been paying attention to the NBA, what do I need to say about Embiid. He has an insane usage rate of 36.5%. Portland has been struggling mightly lately, getting blown out in 4 of their last 5. The Sixers have shown it is difficult for them to blow anyone out, even with Embiid on the floor. There’s not a Trail Blazer on this team that can matchup with The Process and Portand has been dusted by big men all season, allowing 53 FPPG to PFs and 49.2 FPPG to centers. Embiid plays both the 4 and 5 at times. Trust the Process.
Centers
Mason Plumlee – Portland Trail Blazers – vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $5,200
Analysis: Plumdog has been my go-to-guy in any and all lineups this season. Because of his team’s struggles of late, his price has come down to the low-$5K range, something we haven’t seen in awhile. The 76ers can seem scary to face in the backcourt with Embiid, but the Sixers have struggled all year with centers, surrendering 52.7 FPPG to the position. Plumlee has been seeing near or right at 30 minutes per game and he stuffs the stat sheets outside of scoring, my favorite type of fantasy players. While the Blazers have been piss poor of late, I feel this is a perfect spot for this team to play well and get a win, leaving Plumlee to see the floor a ton where he can work his magic.
