Well I hope you enjoyed Super Bowl LI, what a freaking game. I started writing this thinking about how the NFL playoffs were a joke.
But then I had to mass delete everything I had written because the GOAT of the NFL led the Pats back to victory in the first NFL overtime game in Super Bowl history.
What a game, by far the best NFL game in history and maybe will be one of the greatest sports games ever to be played. It has to be one of the greatest comebacks ever.
I know the Patriots are reading this, gearing up for a relaxing day of NBA DFS, but congrats to them and to Brady, winning his fifth Super Bowl title. Unbelievable.
Now that football is over, we can really focus on the NBA, which has about a week and a half left until its all-star break.
Tonight we get an awesome 11-game slate, and it’s chock full of options in the front court again. If you read any of the Index last week, reading today’s might feel like a copy because a lot of these names made the cut last week. And we are going back to the well again today.
In case you have forgotten or are new to the Index, Mondays and Wednesdays are premium days, so if you don’t want to sign up for a free 7-day trial, then you will have to wait for Wednesday and Friday to read all picks on those slates for free.
Point Guard
George Hill – Utah Jazz – vs. Atlanta Hawks – $5,800
Analysis: The #GOAT would be here if we knew of the status of Deron Williams, but know that Yogi Ferrell is a great play tonight if we know Deron sits. Switching gears to old faithful for me is George Hill, whose price has dipped below $6K for the first time in a long time (if at all this season?). Before his last injury, HIll was a solid bet for 30 fantasy points. But with the return of Derrick Favors, the usage Gordon Hayward sees, and the rise of Rudy Gobert, Hill hasn’t been as much of a focal points in this offense of late. He still sports a 26.8% usage rate, but he recording as many of the peripherals as we would like to see on a consistent basis. But I am OK with all of that tonight because HIll has such a great matchup against Atlanta point guard Dennis Schroder. Atlanta has been giving up Grand Canyon-sized amounts of fantasy points to PGs….56 FPPG to be exact. Schroder is what we call a mediocre defender. Hill put up 37 fantasy points in this matchup earlier in the year. With Gobert and Favors having difficult individual matchups on their end, I like for some of that offense to funnel to Hayward, but also Hill. HIll will see low ownership for sure, especially with Yogi right there at $6K.
Shooting Guard
Devin Booker – Phoenix Suns – vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $6,900
Analysis: Booker is becoming a model for consistency (please don’t let that be a jinx). Shooting guard (and Small Forward) are ugly positions tonight with no one I really want to pay down for at the moment. Booker is still under $7K and has put up the following fantasy points in his last 10 (starting with most recent): 40.75, 46, 36, 33, 33.5, 33, 34.5, 33.5, 33.25, 39.75. His price has come up some, but if he continues to show us a 33 point floor, Booker is more than worth paying for in all formats. Booker gets another solid matchup against the Pelicans, who are allowing 42 fantasy points per game to SGs. This game has one of the highest totals on the slate at 221 with NO favored by only 5. i find it hard to trust the Suns on the road sometimes, but the Suns matchup well against this team across the board, so I like the potential pace of this game to go along with the lack of defense we should see. If Booker has another solid game, I think we might see his price rise into the $7K range.
Small Forward
Shabazz Muhammed – Minnesota Timberwolves – vs. Miami Heat – $4,300
Analysis: I have disdain for SG tonight, but I really had disdain for small forward, so I want to pay down as much as possible. Unless we hear word about a Cav sitting out or JImmy Butler playing, then I might think differently, but for now, I am just glad Shabazz is SF eligible. Shabazz should log solid minutes the rest of the year with Zach LaVine out for the remainder of the season. There are others that could vie for PT, but its Shabazz who had been seeing a lot of minutes before the LaVine injury. Now, there’s a reason why Shabazz isn’t a starter and that’s likely because he’s not good enough to be a starter every night. With that said, he should be a solid value despite a tough matchup against the slower-paced Heat. Andrew Wiggins does make a great play because of the LaVine injury, but I don’t try to pretend I know when Wiggins is going to actually pay off his salary (hot take, I am not a Wiggins whisperer, I am the silencer, meaning when I play him, his game goes quiet). Anyway, Muhammed may be a little pricey, needing to score 21.5 fantasy points to pay off while not receiving 30 minutes consistently, but this is a spot where you can feel safe that he will get you the floor of 16-18 points in 25-28 minutes of floor time.
Power Forward
Blake Griffin – Los Angeles Clippers – vs. Toronto Raptors – $8,800
Analysis: That $7,500 price tag didn’t stay around for long, but at $8,800, I still feel this is way to cheap to pay for Blake while Chris Paul nurses an injury. Griffin owns the highest usage rate on the team without Paul on the floor at 29.9%. He’s also averaging 1.37 fantasy points per minute in that span as well. Nevertheless, if Blake gets 30 minutes as he has seen, he should eat up the boards and dominate the paint against a very weak Toronto frontcourt that has allowed 48.7 points per game to PFs this season. Griffin has put up a couple of 50-point efforts since his return from injury, and as long as the Clippers can keep it close on a back-to-back, then Griffin should eat against the likes of Pascal Siakam and Patrick Patterson (if healthy).
Center
Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets – vs. Dallas Mavericks – $9,000
Analysis: Coming off a bad game against San Antonio with limited minutes, I absolutely love the Joker tonight against the Mavericks. We know Andrew Bogut is out for the Mavs, so that means Dirk Nowitzki at the 5. Dirk has never been a good defender, and now at an advanced age, Dirk isn’t exactly going to get better at defending all of a sudden. Jokic should probably be priced in the $10K range, and may very well get there after tonight. Jokic has averaged nearly 60 fantasy points in two meetings with the Mavs. The center position is stacked tonight and I feel people will jump off of the Joker a bit after his recent dud and sudden drop in minutes. I will hop on in that case and we will see if Jokic can impose his will once again against Dallas.
