We have a huge slate tonight, but it’s one that could conceivably change completely up until lock.
There’s a lot of injury news we are awaiting, and that could drastically change our thinking when making lineups.
John Wall, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis (though probably), Pat Beverly, Jeremy Lamb, Tyreke Evans, Tim Hardaway, Jr., Marvin Williams, Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee are all in question tonight.
If John Wall sits, Brad Beal, Otto Porter and Markieff become instantly better plays. IF Embiid sits, Dario Saric becomes the top value play on the slate and Ben Simmons is thrust into some ultra usage.
If Pat Beverly plays, we can downgrade Lou Williams, but give a boost to stacking the game against the Knicks. If Evans sits, that means Mario Chalmers gets a greater boost with Conley out, Gasol gets a boost as would Chandler Parsons, etc. And if Millsap sits, I really like Jokic and Mason Plumlee to get a bump in usage and playing time, respectively.
It’s a lot to consider, but I think Embiid and Wall are the top guys to keep an eye on.
With that said, let’s get to today’s recommendations from yours truly. Again, some of these could change as we get news of injuries and starting lineups.
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Dwayne Wade – PG/SG – Cleveland Cavaliers – $5,100
Analysis: No Iman Shumpert, no Derrick Rose, no Tristan Thompson. That leaves a lot of minutes to be eaten up by some of the Cavs’ bench players. Without Shumpert, who was taking over Rose’s PG minutes, Wade played 30+ minutes and a 50 spot. He’s flashed this upside at times, but now he has to take on a larger role. The Cavs are only favored by 2 and because of their lack of defense this year, they have been in some close, high-scoring games. Detroit has been really good to start the season, so it’s up to LeBron, Wade and Love to provide most of the scoring. If they can keep up, then Wade should be one of the top values of the day. Without those three guys on the floor this season, Wade is a smidge below Kevin Love for usage rate at 23.1% and is scoring 1.02 fantasy points per minute.
Victor Oladipo – SG – Indianapolis Pacers – $7,600
Analysis: #revengenarrative. Not only is this a revenge spot for Oladipo, but it’s one of the better fantasy games on the slate. Indy is 12th in pace of play facing the Magic who are 6th in pace of play this season. Oladipo has been on another level in his past 5 games, scoring 45, 37.5, 40, 51.75 and 34 fantasy points. Orlando has been fantasy christmas to the SG position, allowing this 6th most fantasy points to the position on this slate. Oladipo has a ridiculous 32,9% usage rate, which leads the Pacers. This game has a 220 O/U with Orlando favored by 3. All signs point to a splash day for the former Magic member.
Avery Bradley – SG – Detroit Pistons – $6,000
Analysis: One of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA, gets one of the best scoring matchups on the slate at the shooting guard position. The Cavs have been a fantasy sieve this season and are the top overall team in fantasy points allowed to SGs. J.R. Smith is an awful defender on the wing and Bradley gets a benefit from a pace-up spot plus turnover upside due to his defense. Detroit doesn’t play at a very fast pace, but the Cavs are top-10 overall in pace, giving the PIstons a bump and some extra possessions. Bradley is tied for No. 1 in usage with Reggie Jackson at 27.1%. Bradley is a near-lock for 30+ minutes tonight and is going to need his shooting ability to keep up with the offensive prowess of the Cavs. I have another Piston I love in this game, but more on that later.
