Where’s the damn value?
That’s the phrase I uttered to myself after going through tonight’s 12-game slate.
When muttering that question to myself in angst, I was asking it in regard to a lack of sub $5K options on DraftKings. I am writing this Tuesday night, and surely there’s plenty of value that will open up as the day goes on today.
Sacramento is the biggest proponent of value tonight as Boogie Cousins is out due to a one-game suspension. That likely secures major minutes for Matt Barnes, and one would think that at least Kosta Koufos or Willie Cauley-Stein would stand to benefit greatly. I am not for trying to predict what will happen with those two with such a huge gap in time before lock. But one of those bigs are likely going to make value, neither will be my official picks.
You got a treat with the Value Index Tuesday, receiving it at no charge due to the size of the slate and no Expert Consensus. We will have a Value Index on Thursday this week as we are moving our usual Tuesday coverage to Thursday to continue providing Consensus articles 4 out of 5 days per week. Today, Thursday and Friday all will be freebies for the Index this week. But make sure you can also piggyback that with our 7-day free trial for our premium content.
One more thing, you should really check out our exposure tool for DraftKings via Google Chrome. I have this extension myself and refer to it every night for a quick and easy way to see ownership percentages across my own lineups. It helps me make sure I haven’t faded a player by accident that I wanted to use. Anyway, just wanted to talk that up a bit because it really is a useful DFS tool.
Now, on to tonight’s picks, shall we?
Point Guard
George Hill – Utah Jazz – vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $6,100
Analysis: The old GOAT came through for us on Monday, and with a slight increase in price in another premium matchup, Hill is definitely in play for the Index once again. This game is at New Orleans and has a 202.5 total with the Jazz favored by only 4 points. Jrue Holiday has been insanely good of late, but he and the Pelicans have not been able to stop point guards this season, allowing 57.8 fantasy points per game. Hill has a 26.1% usage rate with Rodney Hood off the floor. With Gordon Hayward drawing a potentially difficult matchup, more opportunities should funnel to HIll in a pace up game that SHOULD stay close for most of the game.
Shooting Guard
Jamal Crawford – Los Angeles Clippers – vs. New York Knicks – $5,100
Analysis: Whatever was ailing Jamal Crawford a couple of weeks ago has apparently diminished and one of my favorite bench plays has returned to form. Without Chris Paul in the lineup, Crawford has a 28% usage rate and commands this team’s second unit. He’s scored well over 20 fantasy points in 8 straight games. He is undervalued for his upside without Paul playing and gets a wonderful draw against the Knicks, who are one of the worst teams against shooting guards, allowing 42.8 FPPG to the position. Crawford can play point or the two, and with his game projected at 219 with a spread of -2, I think this is a great spot to use Crawford in DFS.
Small Forward
Paul George – Indiana Pacers – vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $7,800
Analysis: Should Thad Young sit tonight, we will see a bump in usage for PG13 into the 30% range. I am not someone who likes to roster George this season. While he’s a great player, the addition of Jeff Teague and emergence of Myles Turner and a few other offensive weapons, has diminished George’s upside. He also has shown to be an inconsistent shooter at times. But he’s recently seen some consistency in providing upside, scoring 40 or more fantasy points in 6 of his last 10 games. Normally, targeting SFs against LeBron James is a no-no, but the King and the Cavs have not been able to keep SFs at bay. In fact, the Cavs defense as a whole has been generous for fantasy production. Paul George’s price crept into the $8K range the past couple of weeks, but now, because he’s going to see a lot of LeBron, PG13’s price has dropped back in the $7K range. Small forwards against the Cavs are averaging 44.1 points per game. This game is projected to be one of the higher-scoring games and has just a -2.5 point spread. We saw Washington and Cleveland go to OT Monday night, so expect lots of points scored in this contest as well.
Power Forward
Kevin Love – Cleveland Cavaliers – vs. Indiana Pacers – $8,500
Analysis: Kevin Love’s price is up there, but if you have been playing NBA DFS you know that targeting power forwards against the Pacers is a thing. Thad Young may not even play, leaving backup Lavoy Allen to contend with K-Love. Love scored 51 fantasy points in these two teams’ meet up earlier this season. The Pacers are allowing 48.9 fantasy points per game to PFs with LeBron on Paul George and no real threat to challenge for rebounds in the front court, this should leave Love for more funnel opportunities to score and collect a few extra rebounds. Like I mentioned already, this game is expected to be close and high scoring, which only favors Love, even at a high price tag.
Center
Rudy Gobert – Utah Jazz – vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $6,900
Analysis: As I have said already, the centers for Sacramento should provide a lot of value tonight, but I don’t think you can play both of them (but maybe?). There are a few centers with potential tonight and I like Rudy Gobert pretty much for the same reasons I love George Hill – pace up game, low spread, depressed price, great matchup. He needs just 35 points to pay off 5x and is essentially a lock for a double-double night in and night out. The Pelicans have allowed 51.7 points per game to centers and Gobert’s length and shot blocking ability give him ample opportunity to pad some non-scoring stats.
