So how many of you experience what I call the DFS “Rabbit Hole?”
No, it’s not a streak of losses, but rather a point of panic.
This panic might occur when making lineups or when making a lineup or lineups with very little time left until lock.
For me, it occurs when I feel like i haven’t hedged. I start to overthink about who I haven’t played, so I enter another lineup. Then I start thinking I don’t have certain guys paired, so I create another lineup. All the while, I leave my original set of lineups unchanged.
I hate when this wave overcomes me. I don’t even realize I am falling down the rabbit hole to make myself stop and rethink what’s going on. It always occurs after the fact.
In the end, none of my lineups usually pan out. The rabbit hole turns into the DFS grim reaper and my lineups are sunk.
I am not proud of this flaw. I wish I could realize what’s happening in the moment. But the first step is admittance, right? Any of you experience something similar?
And if you played Tuesday night, your night might have ended 30 seconds into the Warriors/Wizards game when KD went down with a knee injury, further extending said rabbit hole.
Tonight we get to start over with an 11-game slate on tap. Before I get to today’s picks, I really wanted to make this an all-center edition of the Index. It’s a strong position tonight, and you might be able to get away with playing up to 5 of them on FantasyDraft if you are interested in going that route. Narrowing down to one center actually was easier than you would think, but we will get to that later.
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The Index provides one suggested player at each of the five positions that I feel will pay off their salary 5x or more using DraftKings pricing and position eligibility. Let’s get it on!
Point Guard
Kyrie Irving – Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics – $8,700
Analysis: What do you get when you have a point guard with the highest usage rate on his team lining up against a player with the worst defensive rating in all of the NBA? You get lock city. With no Kevin Love, Kyrie has been a usage monster, firing up shot totals of 27,17, 16, 24 and 20. This game has a 222 total with the Cavs favored by 1. Lots of fantasy goodness should be expected from this game with Kyrie being a big beneficiary of the absence of Love (someone give Kyrie a hug).
Shooting Guard
Khris Middleton – Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets – $5,500
Analysis: There’s talk that Middleton is going to see a bump in minutes soon. But this is NBA coaching and Jason Kidd we are talking about here. Talk from Kidd weights about as much as a feather from a dwarf duck. But no less, Middleton has had some extra days of rest and the Bucks have a tough test against a healthy Denver squad. Whether Middleton plays more of the two or three doesn’t matter to me. He’s got a 25.8% usage rate in limited action thus far and let’s not forget that Michael Beasley is going to be out for an extended amount of time, quite possibly forcing the Bucks to play a bit smaller moving forward with Middleton.
Small Forward
Tyreke Evans – Sacramento Kings – vs. Brooklyn Nets – $5,700
Analysis: Boy am I feeling adventurous or what? Trying to tackle a game with two teams that have all kinds of revolving door rotations. At least we know that Evans is going to see 25-28 minutes considering he is probably the King’s best player. Evans unfortunately sees a boost in price due to the soft matchup with the Nets. In two games this season, Evans is averaging 22 minutes and 30 fantasy points against Brooklyn. Now, if he can get to 28 minutes, he certainly offers a ceiling of 40 points or so at a value price of $5,700.
Power Forward
Serge Ibaka – Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards – $6,500
Analysis: I certainly am a bit bitter regarding Serge’s downsurge (real word?) in production in a plum matchup against Milwaukee. We found shortly before lock that Kyle Lowry will be out of pocket for the remainder of the season. While that bodes well for DeMar DeRozan, it certainly doesn’t mean good things regarding his price. It is now above the $9K range and I am not paying that for DDR. But I do feel the need to target this game in some fashion, so that leaves Ibaka, who has a 22% usage rate so far with Lowry off the court. The Wizards are allowing gobs of fantasy points to power forwards this season at 48.3 points per game, which is tied for second most for teams on tonight’s slate. Ibaka is averaging double-digit shot attempts with his new team, and I can see him vying for more shots with Lowry out of pocket.
Center
Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $8,800
Analysis: Anthony Davis, Hassan Whiteside, Andre Drummond, Nikola Vucevic, Rudy Gobert, DeAndre Jordan, Brook Lopez, Willy Hernangomez (or Kyle O’Quinn), Tristan Thompson, Dwayne Dedmond/Pau Gasol, and even Willie-Cauley Stein…those are the centers that have great matchups tonight. And then there is Jokic. I really, really like Brook Lopez tonight, but after recommending Jokic Tuesday night (went nuts by the way) at $8,700, how can I not recommend him for a second straight night with only a $100 increase in salary? The Bucks have been getting destroyed by centers the past 10 games, giving up 62.6 points per game to the position. Milwaukee’s season average allowance is only 50 fantasy points per game. Jokic will be very popular tonight, but I can’t help but make him my No. 1 overall option against a team that allowed Brook Lopez go for 50 fantasy points earlier in the season.
