There’s going to be a lot of news as we near the weekend that could drastically impact this week’s main slate.
As of the time of this article being published, we still don’t have any word on James Conner vs. New England. Ben Roethlisberger’s ribs are banged up. Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Jackson suffered ankle injuries.
The oft-injured Jordan Reed and LeSean McCoy each bit the dust, and are up in the air for this week.
The premier game on this slate, which by the way, is ridiculously ugly, will be NE and Pittsburgh. I have so much riding on that game for season-long purposes that I am going to be on my knees begging and begging and begging for it to go absolutely bonkers, especially on the New England side. Hopefully we don’t get the Brandon Bolden and James Develin jackassery from last week in Miami.
While that game seems to have lots of options for DFS, not one player from that game will make it onto the cash index.
Week 15 is now underway as KC and the Chargers squared off Thursday night. We have two games on Saturday, 11 games on the main slate and then the SNF and MNF games.
But I think this 11-game main slate is about as ugly as we’ve seen for this season. Honestly, it’s so ugly, I am not so sure I’ll have a ton of volume in cash. We will see. I do love 3 RBs this week and so it might just come down to finding the rest of my lineup that I can love equally. But I have my pool narrowed down, so away…we…go…
QUARTERBACKS
Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings – $6,200
Analysis: The Vikings have fired their OC and they get back to home cookin’ in Minneapolis. While Miami has been blasted by rushing attacks this season, in their last four Tom Brady and Andrew Luck have thrown for 344 and 337 yards, respectively, having allowed the most fantasy points to QBs per game in that span. Cousins has the best 1-2 punch on the slate and Dalvin Cook out of the backfield. Truthfully, I am all about the Vikings onslaught as they fight for a playoff spot.
Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $5,500
Analysis: Amari Cooper has sure made a difference in this offense and finally forcing defenses to respect the pass and the run. Dak hasn’t scored less than 14 fantasy points since the Cooper trade, culminating in last week’s barrage, throwing 54 times for 455 yards. Dak hasn’t shown the rushing floor we are used to, but that is always an option for him if he gets into trouble. The Colts are middle of the road against QB fantasy points allowed, BUT here are the quarterbacks the Colts have faced since taking on Tom Brady in Week 5 when he threw for 341 yards – Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill, Cody Kessler, DeShaun Watson. Gross.
Marcus Mariota – Tennessee Titans – $5,100
Analysis: This is what we call a swerve. While you might not have to go this route in cash, Mariota provides enough with his arm and legs to get the job done against the New York Giants, who are allowing 260 yards and 23 yards rushing per game to QBs this season. They have stymied passing touchdowns, but I like this game to shootout and think fading the Titans RBs in favor of the passing game makes a lot of sense.
Josh Johnson – Washington Redskins – $4,300
Analysis: Rushing floor, hot shot coming in to make a name for himself with the Redskins, who have no other option at QB. Price is in effect here despite the matchup with the Jaguars on the road. The Redskins aren’t completely out of the playoff hunt, and Mark Sanchez looks awful. Johnson provides a much safer floor this week than Sanchez last week (sorry everyone).
RUNNING BACKS
Saquon Barkley – New York Giants – $9,400
Analysis: My cash considerations this week seem pretty cut and dry and if and only if James Conner plays will it change (unless I psych myself into Jaylen Samuels which is possible). Barkley is actually my No. 2 RB behind Zeke, but he’s a little bit more expensive. Barkley has four straight 100-yard efforts and has fantasy point totals of 32, 20, 36, and 38 in his last four. The Giants are all in on Barkley right now and the Titans’ numbers against RBs are a bit frail. Houston has lit them up twice this season, the Jets also. Baltimore, Buffalo and Miami also have. The Titans have just been able to keep opposing RBs out of the endzone but are giving up the yards. Barkley of course always can be counted on in the passing game and gets a boost should OBJ sit out again.
Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys – $9,000
Analysis: Since their loss to the Titans in Week 9, the Cowboys with Cooper have a 5-game winning streak with Cooper, Dak and Zeke firing on all cylinders. Zekes touch counts in those five wins – 25, 30, 31, 29 and 40, including 36 receptions. The Colts have limited rushing yards against RBs in their last four, but they have been leaky to them in the pass game, giving up 5.5 receptions for 35 yards per game in that spnn. But for the season, the Colts have allowed the 2nd most receptions per game (7) and 55 yards per game. Cooper might have some trouble this week along with other Cowboys’ receivers, so the load could fall more to Zeke, if you can even really give him that much more of a workload.
Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,100
Analysis: Mixon went bonkers in a game thought that the Chargers were going to handle easily. Now we get the Bengals at home against the Raiders, one of the worst run defenses in the league. Against running backs this season, the Raiders are 11th in fantasy points allowed, giving up an average of 122 yards rushing per game to RBs. Mixon is basically dirt cheap and averages 5.3 YPC at home compared to 4.0 at home.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Adam Thielen – Minnesota Vikings – $8,600
Analysis: What I kind of feared would happen with Dalvin Cook’s return is coming to fruition. Adam Thielen has been a great fantasy commodity this year. But it seems like Thielen’s production has slipped since Cook’s return to the lineup. They have had some tougher pass defenses, but they don’t get a better matchup this week than the Dolphins. Miami is 4th in fantasy points allowed to receivers over their last four games.
Tyler Boyd – Cincinnati Bengals – $5,700
Analysis: Boyd might be the first man in my cash lineups this week at WR. He draws the Raiders who have allowed nearly 2 touchdowns per game to receivers over their last four. Boyd really is better with A.J. Green in the lineup, but with Oakland traveling West to East to play in a 1 p.m. central game coming off an emotional win, I think the Bengals are a sneaky offense this week.
Corey Davis – Tennessee Titans – $5,600
Analysis: Where has the volume gone for Corey Davis? It’s been a few weeks since he’s had double-digit targets, but no fear, this could be a fade Henry and Lewis week for Davis against the Giants. New York has given up an average of 10 catches and a touchdown per game to receivers in their last four.
Allen Robinson – Chicago Bears – $5,500
Analysis: Hes getting the targets, the looks and this week the Bears take on GB, who has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs over their last four games. Robinson does have competition for targets, but he has that big-play ability and safe floor combination we like to have in cash.
Calvin Ridley – Atlanta Falcons – $5,000
Analysis: This is purely a play the situation, situation as Julio Jones gets the shadow treatment for Patrick Peterson. Julio can eat any time, but Ryan may be hesitant to throw Julio the ball because of Peterson. That means perhaps more looks for Ridley, the team’s No. 2 receiver with monster upside indoors with the home crowd on their side.
Taylor Gabriel – Chicago Bears – $4,200
Analysis: Gabriel has had been provided the targets in his last four, just not the production we want to see with that kind of volume. But if you keep feeding that kind of target share to someone, the levee has to break for fantasy points. Gabriel gets another crack at a weak Packers’ secondary at home in what should be a competitive game.
Jordy Nelson – Oakland Raiders – $4,200
Analysis: Jordy Nelson for cash? Really? God, I guess so…he’s been in Carr’s eye the last two weeks since coming off of injury with target totals of 7 and 11 in his last two. He’s turned those targets into 16 catches for 145 yards and he draws the worst secondary on the entire slate. The Bengals are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, charged with 23 catches for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns per game average.
TIGHT ENDS
Vernon Davis – Washington Redskins – $3,200
Analysis: Jordan Reed is doubtful and Josh Johnson is going to need short to intermediate passes to build confidence throwing the ball against a Jaguars defense that continues to look like a formidable foe, but shows it’s tissue softness. I expect Jacksonville to play tougher at home against a dreadful Redskins’ offense. But Davis should be the benefactor of Reed’s injury.
Anthony Firkser – Tennessee Titans – $2,900
Analysis: Delanie Walker out. Jonnu Smith. Done-zo. Now we get a guy named Firkser, who has seen at least 3 targets and catches in each of his last three games. The Titans take on the Giants, who have been more productive against the position than in years past. However, this is a salary-saving punt and we really can’t go much more wrong than we have earlier in the year and still cashed.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Tampa Bay) – $3,000
Analysis: Not worried about the Air Raid offense from Tampa this week, they are not Patrick Mahomes. Instead Tampa is on the road in Baltimore facing Jameis Winston. The more a player like Winston has to throw, the more possibility for those sacks and turnovers we love for a big time defense.
Dallas Cowboys (at Indianapolis) – $2,300
Analysis: But the defense I am likely to go with is a straight punt from the Dallas Cowboys, who despite playing on the road in Indy, is playing ell in all areas. At this price with Luck’s passing volume each game, the Cowboys are difficult to ignore this week.
