I didn’t play cash games on DK last week. I did on FantasyDraft and Saquon shot me in the foot.
But as I said last week, I wasn’t sure I would play on DK because the slate was ugly. Overall, it was a bust of a week on all sites I played…except DRAFT and FanBall.
I really couldn’t concentrate on my lineup construction much because I was consumed by the semifinal round of the $5 Mini Best Ball tournament on DRAFT, of which I had one entry remaining in the tournament.
I was in third heading into Monday night’s game between the Saints and Panthers. I ran pure with dodging Rams and Eagles players catching me, and was for certain that Drew Brees could outscore my McCaffrey share despite me having a 15-point lead.
But CMC did his thing and the game went well under the total and I somehow managed to sneak into this week’s Week 16 final round, top prize gets $20K, minimum cash is $400. It’s pretty awesome to make it to the finals of big tournament like this, especially my first year playing Best Ball. Sure there was some luck involved, but I do feel season-long is still a strength for me and Best Ball fits those elements plus adds in a daily fantasy factor, too.
I have looked through the other final 59 teams I am competing against. And it’s not shocking to see most of the teams with the same players I do because those are the same players that got us all into the final round. Most of the entries have Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Amari Cooper, Zeke, Gurley and Barkley. Many have Robby Anderson, some DeAndre Hopkins (but not a lot), Matt Ryan and then lots have either Kelce, Kittle or Ertz, the three highest-scoring tight ends in the NFL this year. Lots still got through without James Conner playing and could get him back this week, though it’s not looking great for his availability.
I don’t think I can run pure this week. I have the chalk players in my lineup, though no one has the combination I do (Mahomes, Henry, McCaffrey, Cooper and Hopkins). So if they all go off on the same day one more time, then I do have a great shot at the top, and they all do have some pretty awesome matchups.
Josh Gordon is a guy a lot of teams have, too, and here we are, Week 16 and Gordon is off the Patriots’ team. So I think the only way my team can really reach for that top prize is having the players I listed go bonkers, but then having either or all of Corey Davis, Sony Michel and James White go bonkers, and those guys haven’t done jack for me lately. Vernon Davis is my lone tight end left now that Jordan Reed is out, and he may not even play either, leaving me empty against the likes of Kelce, Ertz, Ebron and Kittle. That’s going to be tough and I think the deciding factor this week, honestly. It’s no coincidence or surprise that teams with these four tight ends all made the finals. Tight end has been a very volatile position and having at least one of these four gentleman set you apart from the rest of the field this year.
So this is just part of my lineup, but unless Bortles and Tavon Austin both play, my lineup has a lot of similar players with the field I am up against, it’s just that no one has the Mahomes-Henry-Cooper-CMC-Hopkins combo on their team. They all have to go off and I need Michel and/or White, Vernon and Corey Davis to be bonuses. If even a couple fail here, I don’t think I am cashing even four figures.
We will see if my theory holds true! I hope to have an awesome screen shot next week.
Now as for Week 16. Good luck, but note that injuries and teams playing for nothing will definitely impact who gets full workloads this week and my list below could drastically change between now and Sunday. As I am typing this, Juju Smith-Schuster went down with a groin injury, meaning AB could be a screaming hot play or James Washington or Eli Rogers or Ryan Switzer become awesome values if Juju sits. Keep that in mind.
Good luck this week and look for the GPP Index to come out Friday evening (sorry, didn’t get around to one of these last week with other work-related commitments).
QUARTERBACKS
DeShaun Watson – Houston Texans – $6,600
Analysis: The Eagles have allowed the second-most passing yards per game over their last 4, giving up 310 yards and 1 touchdown per game on average. The Eagles’ secondary is beyond banged up and has been battered and deep fried all season long by wide receivers. Watson is my main high-priced target in a game I feel goes over the projected O/U this week. I LOVE this game for upside and value and we start off with Watson, more players to come in cash.
Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $5,700
Analysis: I don’t think many people will play Dak this week in cash after that abysmal game against the Colts. But the Cowboys have known road struggles and get back to home cookin’ this week against the Bucs, who are allowing the 6th-most rushing yards to QBs in their last four. The Bucs have been a whipping post to offenses all season long and Dak returns to a stadium where he is averaging 7.5 more fantasy points per game, has 13 passing TDs compared to 4 on the road, only 3 INTs compared to 5 on the road and has averaged 262 yards passing per game compared to 214 on the road.
Nick Foles – Philadelphia Eagles – $4,700
Analysis: Yes Foles is back in our lives and led the Eagles to a victory over the high-powered Rams when no one expected it. Are we getting the 2017 Eagles back once again? God, I hope not, but for fantasy, we have to take them seriously as they are fighting for a playoff spot and division title this week when they host the Texans. Houston is 5th overall in fantasy points allowed to QBs in their last four, giving up 338 yards and 1.75 passing TDs per game in that stretch. Overall, the Eagles are underpriced at receiver in a dream passing draw for Philly.
Taylor Heinecke – Carolina Panthers – $4,000
Analysis: Cam Newton is a casualty to the injury report for Week 16. This gives us a min-salary QB with rushing ability in a premier spot with tons of motivation. Heinecke is unproven, yes, but his price and workload provide little risk and allows you to jam in players all over the board. The Falcons, Carolina’s opponent this week, is 8th in fantasy points allowed to QBs over their past four games, giving up 189 yards per game through the air, but allowing 1.75 passing TDs and 33 rushing yards per game in that span. Heinecke has the likes of speedy big-play gunners at wideout such as D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel and Jarius Wright. Then he also has Christian McCaffrey to dump off to comfortably in short passing lanes/windows. The Panthers have an outside shot to make the playoffs, but a win keeps them in, so the motivation for the team to rally behind their backup QB is there. Heinecke also has motivation to prove he’s capable to be an NFL Qb. A win and/or playing well starts that talk for him.
