I’ve been waiting a week to talk about the disaster that was this past weekend in my personal life, which ultimately caused my Week 7 demise.
The dominoes, teetered, tilted, tipped and continued to fall from Friday all the way through Sunday night.
So my wife and daughter both became ill Thursday night. My 2-year-old had a fever and was just out of it Friday with the crud and some intermittent vomiting. We had to take her to the doctor Saturday morning, after being up at 4 in the morning.
I was running on fumes all day Saturday, and then Sunday came. Both my wife got up early with the sick little one, and then boom at 10:30, my wife comes down with a major migraine. The most inopportune time to come down with a migraine, right before lock. So I was in charge of the sick kid who was starting to get well and wanted to go, go, go and play, play, play. By this time, lock is coming to the wire. I’m frazzled, in my own head, and the Nick Chubb news comes out that he’s not starting. We already had worries about the wind in multiple games, so I got off Devin Funchess who I absolutely loved in cash. I got off Trubisky and Cohen and inserted Beathard and Zeke. Played the Lions defense. I mean, it turns out to be a complete disaster.
I ultimately got off Chubb in cash because Duke was starting and he’s the pass-catching back…and it was just a friggin’ mess. I haven’t been this clueless and frazzled trying to decide my cash lineup this season. Maybe ever.
BUT…
I blame this jumbled mess and decision making, not on family illness, migraines or lack of sleep….I blame it on pizza.
Yes, effing pizza.
It all started Friday afternoon at lunch. Now let me preface this story, which I will keep short, by saying that I live a ketogenic lifestyle. I do this to keep myself healthy and most importantly, to lose weight. I love it mostly, some days are more difficult than others. But I can enjoy the fruits of my labor without the guilt.
One of these fruits is pizza. I love pizza. I sauntered down to a local pizza buffet Friday afternoon, by myself, to “cheat’ and eat pizza. I am a regular so the manager/owner knows my face and always is pleasant and asks me how I am doing, yada, yada, yada.
So how do I eat low-carb to fit my lifestyle at a pizza buffet? Salad and pizza toppings.
I ate my salad, left some lettuce, cheese, bacon bits and ranch on my plate, leaving room for the main course.
I get a few pieces of pizza, take the toppings off, scarf. Repeat once, repeat twice, and three times. I am at 6 pieces of pizza consumed, minus the crust.
The owner comes over to say hi, then sees the crust sitting on the table.
“You can’t come back here anymore if you eat your pizza like that,” he said.
“Seriously?” I asked.
“Yes, you cost me money eating this way and I already lose money on my buffet every day,” he adds. “You cost me more money.”
I said “OK.”
He told me not to take it personal, but I finished what I had, and went and paid for my buffet. As I am paying, he reminds me of how I cost him money and how he has told others not to come back and eat his buffet if they aren’t going to eat the crust.
I never really got mad, but I was shocked that I was told how to consume food that I was paying for. I understand he might’ve thought that I would eat 20-30 pieces because I am only eating the toppings. Little did his fragile mind know that in a ketogenic lifestyle, you don’t need to eat very much. Fats and protein fill you up quickly, especially with some vegetables (salad with eggs, cheese, ranch, etc.) and water. I was pretty much done after my 6 pieces of pizza.
I was just shocked. Couldn’t believe the command and poor customer service.
Where I went wrong was even going there in the first place. I was teetering with waiting until Monday to go eat because I knew a friend of mine and I could leave work and go eat somewhere. We had teacher inservice scheduled and could leave campus to eat lunch.
But nooooooo….I just had to eat pizza on Friday.
So if I have learned anything from #PizzaGate, it’s that you should be able to eat your mother effing food, as long as you are paying for it, however you damn well please.
And don’t tinker with your food decisions, it can set you up for failure in your DFS lineups (I have no data to back that statement).
Now that you know how bad Week 7 was for me, things have mellowed. My wife and daughter are feeling better outside of lingering coughs and I am no longer stuck on this idea that I can’t eat toppings off of my pizza at a buffet.
Screw Week 7, my cash lineup was atrocious thanks to other deadweight such as Jermaine Kearse and Willie Snead, and it scored like 107 points.
Moving on….
Thank you Week 8, you are such a reprieve…
QUARTERBACKS
Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers – $6,400
Analysis: Aaron Rodgers on the road in the game with the highest total on the board AND should have all of his weapons healthy? Yes, please. Green Bay isn’t running the ball efficiently in this one as LAR allowed just 89 yards rushing per game to RBs. I wish that Geronimo Allison or Randall Cobb wouldn’t play so Marquez Valdes-Scantling gets more run, but nonetheless, Rodgers is super cheap considering the projected points to be scored.
Mitchell Trubisky – Chicago Bears – $6,100
Analysis: I have a feeling this is a week to hop off of Trubisky. He’s smoked the competition the past three weeks, but now faces a team at home that Chicago could get out to an early lead on and not need Trubisky’s arms and legs. However, it’s his legs that make him a cash game option this week and the Jets’ pass defense, which has allowed the sixth most yards passing per game and sixth-most fantasy points per game to QBs.
Jared Goff – Los Angeles Rams – $6,000
Analysis: Really, I should probably stop here. Jared Goff at $6K with his weapons and against Green Bay is egregious pricing. I know he’s been “inconsistent” but his team hasn’t needed his upside. Despite not having Cooper Kupp this week, Goff and the Rams still have that guy named Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. The Packers are middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to QBs, but some of those points are skewed with dates against the inept Redskins and the Buffalo Bills. Let me remind you, C.J. Beathard put up a an ass-kicking against the Packers. C.J. Beathard.
Sam Darnold – New York Jets – $4,500
Analysis: I had Russell Wilson on this list, but he’s really a meh for me in cash and GPPs. The only other QB in cash I am considering this week is Sam Darnold, whose price and potential game script allows for you to jam the top guys in your lineup. The Jets shouldn’t be able to run the ball well against this stout Bears’ front, and as long as Robby Anderson is able to go, Darnold will have some solid weapons to throw to and pick apart the Bears secondary, which is 7th in fantasy points allowed to QBs. If Anderson doesn’t play, it might be tough for me to play Darnold.
RUNNING BACKS
Todd Gurley – Los Angeles Rams – $9,800
Analysis: What else can I say about the best player in football?
James Conner – Pittsburgh Steelers – $7,500
Analysis: No Le’Veon Bell coming off the bye, gets another shot to run the ball down the Browns’ throats. It is the second division game between these Steelers and Browns, so maybe you don’t need to expect Conner to go for 31-135-2 rushing, and 5-for-57 through the air, but he is still facing a Browns squad that’s 12th in fantasy points allowed to RBs, including 112 yards rushing per game and 7 targets allowed per game to the position.
Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals – $7,300
Analysis: I might be one of the few people that thinks Joe Mixon is a great play this week. He’s had two weeks where his carries weren’t his normal workload, and those are coming off his absence from injury. But the Bucs are 10th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, but the points are from touchdowns rather than rushing yards. They are allowing RBs to average 7.6 targets, 5.83 catches, 50+ yards and 0.5 receiving scores in the passing game. I don’t know if I will go here, but if I don’t, he’s a great pivot in tournaments.
Tarik Cohen – Chicago Bears – $5,800
Analysis: Oh boy…I am a week removed from loving him in cash, and he has gone off in three straight games, receiving 30 targets in the last 3 games and has scored at least 22 fantasy points in all three games where he’s seen an increase in usage out of the passing game. Anthony Miller has returned and again, they are playing the Jets, a team they should handle fairly easily. But if this is the way Matt Nagy is going to use Cohen all year, then he’s vastly underpriced.
Marlon Mack – Indianapolis Colts – $5,400
Analysis: The return of the Mack produced Milly Maker winning results in Week 7. But it’s one game, so is it an aberration? He’s definitely secured his role in the backfield. Oakland is in give up mode already and has allowed 112 yards rushing per game to RBs and is giving up 27 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. This game has a high over/under and has sneaky shootout potential. Let’s just hope Mack stays healthy.
Jalen Richard – Oakland Raiders – $4,200
Analysis: Jon Gruden is going to force Doug Martin down our throats this week. At least he will early on, because he loves the Muscle Hamster. But Martin is trash and all we can hope for is that Oakland gets behind quickly. The Raiders don’t have Amari Cooper and there are targets to go around. Indy is second in receptions allowed to RBs, averaging 7 receptions allowed. Richard’s target totals the past four games WITH Amari Cooper and Marshawn Lynch (on IR), 7-5-6-8. His catches in those games – 6-3-6-7.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Antonio Brown – Pittsburgh Steelers – $8,500
Analysis: The share of this Pittsburgh offense is concentrated, but also spread out. By that I mean, it’s not just Le’Veon and AB anymore. Juju would be a No. 1 receiver on any other team that doesn’t have AB, Nuk, Julio or A.J. Green (and maybe Thielen). This is about AB and he’s still a great cash-game play but his ceiling is a bit limited for tournaments. He’s averaging 21.6 fantasy points and 12 targets per game. He’s received 10 more targets at home than in road games this season, but home/road splits haven’t really mattered this season. Cleveland is 9th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this season, giving up 14 catches, 195 yards and 1 touchdown allowed per game.
A.J. Green – Cincinnati Bengals – $8,000
Analysis: There is a narrative that A.J. Green isn’t as fantasy relevant at home compared to his numbers on the road. It’s hard to tell if that narrative remains this season because he has more yards and catches in road games than at home, but he’s also played one more game on the road than at home. Green is in the midst of a touchdown drought, having scored just once in his last 5 games, including zero in his last three. That can all change this week as the Bengals host Tampa Bay, who is allowing the second most fantasy points per game to receivers.
Brandin Cooks – Los Angeles Rams – $6,900
Analysis; No Cooper Kupp and a game with the highest-total on the board, and the Rams are facing Aaron Rodgers, arguably the best QB in the league. This one has all the makings of a track meet and Cooks could be one of those reasons as the Packers are allowing 1.67 TDs per game to receivers. Their numbers look decent against wideouts, but they’ve also faced Washington and Buffalo, two teams that did not and do not throw the ball through the air very well. Cooks doesn’t get as many targets, but he gets enough and has the upside enough to make you feel comfortable in cash.
Robert Woods – Los Angeles Rams – $6,800
Analysis: One of the top receivers in the league in air yards, Robert Woods is arguably the Rams’ No. 1 receiver, recording nearly 6 catches, on 8.2 targets for 86 yards per game. Woods has caught 3 touchdowns this season, all at home. He’s averaging 25 fantasy points per game at home compared to 15.6 fantasy points on the road. Again, he’s playing in this week’s highest-projected scoring game on the main slate.
Doug Baldwin – Seattle Seahawks – $5,500
Analysis: Doug Baldwin has had an extra week to heal all of the numerous ailments that might be bogging him down. Sure, he’s not 100%, especially with his knee, but he’s been playing almost every snap since returning and should have open lanes on a fast track in Detroit this week. The Lions are one of the better teams against the pass, which explains their atrocious numbers against running backs. However, Baldwin is still reasonably priced, should see 8-10 targets and avoid much of Darius Slay’s coverage when he lines up in the slot. I don’t know if I get here, but i wouldn’t hesitate to play him this week.
Jordy Nelson – Oakland Raiders – $4,700
Analysis: I have no Derek Carr on either list this week, yet I have Jordy, Richard, Jared Cooks and one more guy below. But it’s not unreasonable to think the losses of Amari Cooper and Marshawn Lynch better prop up the skills guys left who will be out there all game. Nelson is one of those guys and he’s already flashed some upside his season. The Colts have been tougher on opposing passing attacks, but that’s from limiting big plays and touchdowns to wideouts. They are in the top-12 in catches allowed to receivers and this game has sneaky shootout potential. The Colts are the favorite, meaning the Raiders should be throwing more.
Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals – $4,400
Analysis: I love the Cardinals this week. There’s no Mike McCoy and Byron Leftwich, as I have said earlier in the week, has seen how McCoy got fired. He will want a full-time job and the way to get that job is to feed David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, this team’s two best players. This game is at home, in Fitzgerald’s wheelhouse, against a bad 49ers secondary that is allowing an average of 12 catches for 179 yards and 1.29 touchdowns per game to receivers. Fitzgerald has 8 targets in back-to-back games and I expect those numbers to swell with a new OC in charge. Fitzgerald has 9 catches in those past 2 games and a touchdown in that span. Will I get here in cash? We will see.
Martavis Bryant – Oakland Raiders – $3,700
Analysis: You can judge Martavis Bryant this week based off his entire performance year-to-date. But then you aren’t judging him correctly because this Raiders team doesn’t have Marshawn Lynch or Amari Cooper any longer. Bryant is the de facto No. 1 perimeter receiver on this team now. Even in limited action, Bryant’s aDOT is 13.3 yards. He’s had some long balls dropped for big plays and TDs this season, but I don’t care. He is the best cheap receiver under $5K. People will forget how good he was with Pittsburgh and despite what you may think of Gruden, he must like Bryant enough to give him a full workload because Martavis was cut, brought back, Amari traded and here we are. His price is almost risk free and allows for some great flexibility with the studs this week. I am perhaps all in.
TIGHT ENDS
Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs – $6,800
Analysis: Truthfully, Kelce is a tournament play. But if you can find some balance that you like to your lineup and can afford Baby Gronk, then go for it in cash. He’s without a TD at home this year (so that’s going to change at some point soon), but is averaging more fantasy points per game at home. This Chiefs offense puts defensive matchups to near irrelevancy and Kelce shredded this team a few weeks ago for his highest-yardage output of the season. He’s almost a lock for double-digit fantasy points, the only issue is having to pay up for that floor.
David Njoku – Cleveland Browns – $4,600
Analysis: I was stuck on Njoku as my cash game tight end last week and I likely won’t come off that conviction this week either. His price has increased, but he’s still affordable in a game where the Browns should be throwing as they play from behind. The Steelers are the third worst team against TEs this season, allowing 19.13 fantasy points per game, including an average of 10.5 targets, 7.67 catches for 79.67 yards. Since Mayfield took over the starting reins, Njoku’s targets are as follows 7-10-12-6.
C.J. Uzomah – Cincinnati Bengals – $3,500
Analysis: It’s between Njoku and Uzomah for me this week in cash, unless I somehow can get to Kelce, which I don’t see happening. Uzomah draws the NFL’s worst defense against tight ends in the Tampa Bay Bucs. For the same reasons I loved Njoku last week, Uzomah must be considered this week. My only issue is that I feel Njoku is a far superior tight end to Uzomah, who is the third string TE on the Bengals. Sometimes matchup matters more than talent, and so does volume, something Uzomah has seen only once. He did catch a TD last week, but otherwise he would’ve kerplunked had he not scored. The matchup warrants consideration and John Ross’ absence can only help his target share.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver Broncos) – $2,600
Analysis: Kansas City is my stream defense in all of my season-long leagues. They are a far superior defense at home than on the road and get the second game against a division rival at Arrowhead. At Arrowhead this season, KC is averaging 13 fantasy points per game. Away from Arrowhead, they are averaging a shade over 3 points per game. Denver is one of the worst offenses in the league, had a distraction this week with (former) backup QB Chad Kelly and they are actively trying to trade Demaryius Thomas before next week’s trade deadline. Having to play at Arrowhead doesn’t help Denver’s chances either and Case Keenum hasn’t found a rhythm in this offense. Chiefs are super cheap and are priced like they are facing an upper-tier offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cleveland Browns) – $2,300
Analysis: I don’t even understand how this price even exists for the Pittsburgh Steelers this week. Pricing Pitt against the Browns at home in the second division game of the season speaks loud and clear that we need to be playing this defense at this price. This team has 9 sacks in its last two games, has held enemies to 21 and 17 points and stymies rushing attacks. Pittsburgh doesn’t have an interception at home this season, but that all should change as rookie Baker Mayfield comes to town. The Steelers should see lots of pass attempts, meaning more opportunity for sacks, fumbles and interceptions.
