So I was going to move my baseball stacking article and turn it into an NFL version. I wrote all of this to start…
Welcome into the first edition of the NFL version of The Stack.
If you were a DFS baseball player and regular reader at DailyOverlay, you know about stacking. Well, stacking and correlation plays also matter in DFS football, though we don’t have to stack 4-5 players from each team to put up big scores.
Sometimes, we can play an QB and WR with an opposing WR and have big output. If you like a QB and WR in a game, there’s a good chance you should like an opposing RB and/or WR, too because if the game shoots out, it’s likely going to be because of some of those players.
Another correlation strategy out there is pairing your RB in games you believe a team will win or win heavily with their team’s defense and special teams. The thought process here is that the defense will get more opportunities to get turnovers and sacks, and with a lead, the running back will get more carries and opportunity, wearing down defenses and running out the clock.
QB, RB and WR stacks can certainly hit big, and sometimes, onslaughts can be GPP winners. An onslaught is when you stack 4 or more players from the same team. Those can be a combination of QB, RB, WR, TE, or QB, RB, RB, WR, TE, or QB, RB, WR, WR, TE, etc. Typically pairing defenses with big stacks are not thought to be positive correlation because a team scoring a ton of points is likely doing it through the offense, and of course, could be in a likely shootout, meaning the defense is getting shelled.
There’s a lot of ways to go, and of course some luck is needed to make it successful. You can use Vegas odds and lines to help guide you, but they aren’t black and white. Targeting teams and players on teams that will go over the implied team totals is where you should be aiming. That’s what we will try to do here with the Stack.
Now that we’ve covered the basics for this article, let’s talk some football!
I had my picks ready to go through stacking, and it just wasn’t sitting right with me.
As I sat in the parking lot, listening to a football podcast, before getting my mind ready to enter work, I had a small epiphany…
Writing a stacking article for football DFS isn’t me. Stacking in football DFS is something I do, but it has to be part of my roster construction process.
So I have decided to split my Index articles into Cash and GPP versions. Some stacking may occur, but it’s not just stacking to stack. It will be about finding pivots off of high-ownership guys at similar price points, statistics and matchups.
Read the strikethrough stuff if you wish. All it discusses is some basic stacking strategy. Or, you can just keep reading below and find out who I like for GPPs in Week 1.
QUARTERBACKS
Kirk Cousins – Minnesota – $6,500
The Pivot: Drew Brees and DeShaun Watson
Analysis: Gets his first taste of home life in Minny. Facing an improved 49ers team, but should have plenty of opportunities in the offense with high-paced San Fran on the other side. Cousins has full arsenal of weapons healthy and home is where Thielen and Diggs do the most damage.
Philip Rivers – San Diego – $6,400
The Pivot: Ben Roethlisberger
Analysis: People will play Big Ben despite his huge home/road splits and likely no Le’Veon Bell. Rivers faces raunchy Kansas City D that should be one of the worst secondaries in the league.
Andrew Luck – Indianapolis – $6,100
The Pivot: Russell Wilson
Analysis: I love this game and people will be scared to play Luck in his first full NFL game in nearly 2 years. Luck has two capable tight ends, no safety at running back and a big-play threat in T.Y. Hilton to throw to. Might be the cheapest we see Luck all year after this game.
Andy Dalton – Cincinnati – $5,800
The Pivot: Jimmy G
Analysis: Remember, I love this game? Andy Dalton is a cheap value play indoors against what could give KC a run at worst defensive secondary. Dalton has large complements of talent around him – Green, Ross, Bernard, Mixon and Eifert. They will elevate him.
RUNNING BACKS
Joe Mixon – Cincinnati – $6,100
The Pivot: Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook
Analysis: Maybe I am wrong to think people won’t play Mixon over Run CMC and Cook? Mixon is stellar in the passing game and should see all the goalline work. I project this game to shootout and go over the total meaning lots to eat for Mixon. Either way, I expect Cincy to win this game, which also benefits Mixon because he can help take more carries and wind down the clock.
Alex Collins – Baltimore – $5,400
The Pivot: None
Analysis: I do think Collins draws ownership against the Bad News Bears of the NFL (Buffalo). But his ownership will likely come in under the big boys up top, some of the $6K mid-tier and the sub-$5K value. Big favorites, lots of points, means lots of carries for Collins late.
Derrick Henry – Tennessee – $5,400
The Pivot: Alex Collins
Analysis: People are going to be scared of Henry because of the timeshare with Dion Lewis. But Tennessee is facing another terrible team in the Miami Dolphins, who will have another bad defense this season. If you expect Tennessee to win, Henry will get the carries to run the clock, not Dion Lewis, who will be used in passing situations and when playing catchup. Sure, if the Titans get smoked, so does Henry.
Lamar Miller – Houston – $5,200
The Pivot: None
Analysis: People don’t play Lamar Miller (and I am usually one of those people). He could lose carries to Alfred Blue at any moment because he’s Lamar Miller. But he’s supposed to be the bellcow, we know he can catch passes and is in a projected high-scoring affair. We should be using him as a high upside play in tournaments. I wouldn’t like this play if D’Onta Foreman were in the backfield, but he’s not. It’s Miller’s backfield to lose.
Royce Freeman – Denver – $4,500
The Pivot: Adrian Peterson
Analysis: People are going to play Adrian Peterson, I just know it. I will not be that person. I will take the young workhorse who earned his starting job in the preseason and dominated college football. Freeman gets the start against a used-to-be-good Seahawks defense. People won’t play him because of the defense’s name.
Carlos Hyde – Cleveland – $4,500
The Pivot: James Conner
Analysis: Conner is likely going to play over Le’Veon, making Conner a high-ownership play, despite me feeling like he has a lot of volatility. Switch to the other side of the ball and you have Hyde who was paid in the offseason to be a workhorse and showed in the preseason that he can be. He may not get all of the passes thrown his way, but Cleveland is a sneaky team to pull off an upset at home. And if they do, Hyde will be involved and part of the reason for it.
James White – New England – $4,000
The Pivot: Rex Burkhead
Analysis: Burkhead is a cash-game play for me this week, but I don’t really love him because of the knee injury. However, I do love James White in tournaments because I think he gets more carries and passes thrown his way in a projected high-scoring game, than people think. I love it even more if Sony Michel is active and expected to get carries. The Pats have Hogan and Gronk as reliable pass catchers. Who else is reliable in the passing game for Brady? James White.
WIDE RECEIVERS
A.J. Green – Cincinnati – $7,300
The Pivot: Keenan Allen
Analysis: This won’t be the last time you hear about this Indy/Cincy game from me. Dalton and AJ Green on a fast track indoors? Gimme all of it. John Ross’ potential break out and Tyler Eifert healthy with two very capable running backs that can catch passes really opens up the field for the Bengals against the Indy D, which was 5th in the league in passing yards allowed (also gave up 23 touchdowns through the air, t00).
Odell Beckham, Jr. – New York – $7,000
The Pivot: Antonio Brown
Analysis: AB should be popular for good reason, but if you want to pay up for wide receiver and don’t want to go all the way to the top, let me present you OBJ, who plays his first game since a season-ending injury in 2017. OBJ is one of the best receivers against tough cornerback competition. The Giants move OBJ all around the field and that may avoid some spots against stud CB Jalen Ramsey.
T.Y. Hilton – Indianapolis – $6,800
The Pivot: Adam Thielen
Analysis; It’s quite possible with all the time to think about Week 1 that T.Y.’s ownership has climbed. I think people like the safety of Adam Thielen and don’t trust Andrew Luck yet. Hilton at home with his homeboy Luck? I’ll take the upside in tournaments all day.
Stefon Diggs – Minneapolis – $6,300
The Pivot: Chris Hogan
Analysis: Chris Hogan should be one of the most-owned wideouts in Week 1. Stefon DIggs has extreme upside in a game where points should be scored and lots of plays run. Diggs has been battling an injury, which could help ownership percentages. It’s also a time where people may not play him because of his volatility at times and having a new quarterback to get familiar with.
Juju Smith-Schuster – Pittsburgh – $5,900
The Pivot: Jarvis Landry
Analysis: Landry looks like the best safe option at this price-point. Juju is set to provide even more production with a full season at the No. 2 wideout position in this offense. With no Le’Veon Bell, there may be more targets to go around as James Conner is inexperienced as a heavy-passing down back.
Michael Crabtree – Baltimore – $5,400
The Pivot: Manny Sanders
Analysis: I love Crabtree as a Raven. He saw the most red zone targets in Oakland and now he is with the Ravens who do not have a viable pass catcher outside of Crab that is capable in the red zone. Crabtree will catch touchdowns this year. Buffalo secondary is the best part of the team, but Crab always finds a way.
Tyrell Williams – San Diego – $4,200
The Pivot: Kenny Stills
Analysis: Despite the arrival of Antonio Gates, who shouldn’t see a full set of snaps, Tyrell the Gazelle is the No. 2 receiver on the Chargers and is facing the downward spiral of the KC defense and its secondary. Two touchdown upside from Rivers in any week.
Dede Westbrook – Jacksonville – $3,900
The Pivot: Keelan Cole
Analysis: I love Dede more than I should, but Dede is the downfield threat that will see slot sets this year with Marqise Lee out. Everyone thinks Cole is set to have a huge game, but it could be Dede who says you should love me instead.
John Brown – Ravens – $3,700
The Pivot: John Ross
Analysis: I guess Joe Flacco should be a quarterback option for me, huh? I don’t think the stack will work out like that, but John Brown could be the reason this game gets out of hand. Smokey is healthy and ready to roll. Flacco has the deep ball down in most games and Smokey can make anyone east his dust.
TIGHT ENDS
Jordan Reed – Washington – $4,000
The Pivot: None
Analysis: For a long time, I thought Reed was the lock TE of Week 1. Now we aren’t sure if he’s completely healthy, so he’s a risk but with huge upside. The Cardinals are stout against wide receivers thanks to Patrick Peterson, so it’s TEs in the middle of the field that get the job done against the Cards.
Tyler EIfert – Cincinnati – $3,400
The Pivot: None
Analysis: Eifert is healthy and has red zone love written all over him. He’s going to be a short-yardage specialist and red zone threat moving forward. Who doesn’t want 3-4 red zone targets with the possibility of a couple of touchdowns at this price?
Eric Ebron – Indianapolis – $3,300
The Pivot: Jack Doyle
Analysis: Maybe you can play Doyle and Ebron together, but if you are looking to get off the chalk, Ebron is the way to go. We all know he has the athleticism to be No.1 TE, but he hasn’t put that together yet. This is a situation that might be better for him in Indy. Luck loves TEs and with no true No. 2 wideout, Ebron could be the guy that picks up the slack.
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins – Jacksonville – $3,200
The Pivot: Ricky Seals-Jones
Analysis: A tight end against the Giants? Yes. A tight end against the Giants on a passing offense that has targets opened up due to injury to another player? Yes. ASJ is a must play this week as the Giants could give Bortles fits up front and force him to check down.
DEFENSES
Jacksonville Jaguars – $3,700
The Pivot: Baltimore Ravens
Analysis: Why should we be scared of Eli Manning throwing the football? He has tossed 29 INTs the past two seasons.
New Orleans Saints – $3,600
The Pivot: Baltimore Ravens
Analysis: I feel like everyone has forgotten how good this defense was last year. They allowed the 10th least amount of points in the league and were 3rd in interceptions and tied for seventh in sacks.
Carolina Panthers – $3,200
The Pivot: None
Analysis: Cowboys are going to struggle to put the ball in the endzone this year with no serious receivers to worry about. Stack the box when Zeke is in the game, put pressure on Dak and an offensive line that lost Travis Frederick. Dallas doesn’t run a ton of plays per game and so the Panthers shouldn’t be giving up a ton of points either.
New England Patriots – $2,400
The Pivot: Browns DST
Analysis: Maybe I am wrong, but the Patriots should come in underowned based on their matchup on paper. The Pats keep everything in front of them and know how to keep teams from outscoring them.
Dallas Cowboys – $2,300
The Pivot: None
Analysis: I am probably undervaluing the Dallas defense as a whole for the season, but they are going to be good and limit points’ scored. They should be able to put lots of pressure on Cam with a busted offensive line. Jaylon Smith, Sean Lee and DeMarcus Lawrence, plus many others, should make things tough for the Panthers.
