Week 5 in the NFL brought a huge Rams victory on the road with a gutsy 4th down call, an ugly Browns FG in overtime to win and avoid a second tie, a 63-yard field goal for the Panthers to beat the Giants, the Cowboys failing to go for it on 4th down in overtime to keep possession and Drew Brees doing Drew Brees things and becoming the NFL’s all-time leader in passing yards.
I can’t wait for Week 6.
Before we get to Week 6, I want to provide some unofficial grading and transparency in the GPP picks from the previous week, something we haven’t done before. We will recap from now on since it’s not officially graded.
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger – vs. Atlanta – 22.6 FP
Matt Ryan – at Pittsburgh – 15.4 FP
Patrick Mahomes – vs. Jacksonville – 20.82 FP
Philip Rivers – vs. Oakland – 24.36 FP
Aaron Rodgers – at Detroit – 33.68 FP
Running Backs
Aaron Jones – at Detroit – 7.9 FP
Kerryon Johnson – vs. Green Bay – 10.5 FP
Marshawn Lynch – at Los Angeles Chargers – 6.1 FP
LeSean McCoy – vs. Tennessee – 12.8 FP
Austin Ekeler – vs. Oakland – 12.9 FP
Wide Receivers
Odell Beckham – at Carolina – 35.38 FP
Davante Adams – at Detroit – 32 FP
Kenny Golladay – vs. Green Bay – 19.8 FP
Juju Smith-Schuster – vs. Atlanta – 13.4 FP
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz – vs. Minnesota – 30 FP
Charles Clay – vs. Tennessee – 2.2 FP
Defensive/Special Teams
Tennessee Titans – at Buffalo – 7 FP
Philadelphia Eagles – vs. Minnesota – 4 FP
Analysis: You almost couldn’t go wrong at QB and WR and TE provided some huge ceiling games. Running back and DST were very mediocre, though
Week 6, here we come!
QUARTERBACKS
Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons – $6,800
Analysis: Coming in with an injury, the highest priced quarterback in the game with the highest total. Ryan and the Falcons are at home against the Buccaneers, who allow the most fantasy points to QBs.
Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,300
Analysis: Rule of thumb for me: Never play Andy Dalton in cash over $6K. That doesn’t mean we can play him at home this week against Pittsburgh, who allow the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Philip Rivers – Los Angeles Chargers – $5,900
Analysis; West Coast going East Coast, Browns are a good defense and Browns are at home. But Rivers has lots of weapons, Melvin Gordon and can sling the ball around. There’s tons of upside here in a potential shootout for a cheap price.
Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,800
Analysis: Likely to draw ownership, especially in cash. But for me, he’s a tournament-only play despite playing the Falcons, who are third in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Winston hasn’t started a full game this season and I think he starts slow, and has no rushing upside. But tons of upside if here in the week’s premier game.
Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks – $5,700
Analysis: Cash play last week, turns into a tournament play this week. He’s not running the ball much, his price went up and the Seahawks are committed to running the ball. However, the Raiders play fast and can get into shootouts with teams because their defense is so bad. Wilson should have a clean pocket with the lack of pass rush the Raiders have.
Derek Carr – Oakland Raiders – $5,100
Analysis: Carr has a bevy of weapons from Marshawn Lynch to Amari Cooper, Seattle’s defense is on the road and are a shell of their previous self, especially without Earl Thomas. I can’t believe I am about to type these words, but Derek Carr actually might be cash-game viable this week. But for me, he’s Derek Carr and you can’t fully trust the floor.
RUNNING BACKS
Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys – $7,000
Analysis: On the surface, I laughed at the Cowboys playing this game, thinking they will automatically lose. But somehow, it’s very possible the Cowboys’ defense keeps them in this game until the end. Zeke is a tournament play because ownership will be low based on the Jaguars defensive matchup. But Zeke is $7K, the cheapest he’s been all season.
David Johnson – Arizona Cardinals – $5,900
Analysis; DJ is in a similar spot as Zeke, except his team has no chance to beat the Minnesota Vikings on the road. Last week, David Johnson lucked into 2 touchdowns and had positive game script in the fourth quarter. Thus, we didn’t see a lot of targets to DJ….again. He’s hard to trust in a game with the highest spread, favoring the Vikings. But there’s negative game script potentially, and with this offense being horrid, I am hopeful DJ will see more targets and catches than he has all year.
LeSean McCoy – Buffalo Bills – $5,500
Analysis; At some point will likely be traded before the Week 8 deadline. Will it be this week? I am hopeful in season-long, but this week he has DFS potential, despite a solid price increase. His usage has increased from the start of the season, but he has to go on the road against the Texans this week. That’s what tournaments are for. Buffalo will be playing from behind and hopefully McCoy will see at least a handful of targets.
Phillip Lindsay – Denver Broncos – $4,500
Analysis: The Seahawks ran all over the Rams defense at home, in a shootout. The Rams travel to another difficult place to play in Denver, partially due to conditioning. Lindsay is a value RB play this week with double-digit touches in every game this season but one, and can be paired with Gurley to stack up the rest of your lineup.
Austin Ekeler – Los Angeles Chargers – $4,200
Analysis: Truthfully, he hasn’t flashed the ceiling in tournaments yet, but has shown a somewhat safe floor for cash. But there’s going to be a game where he vultures TDs multiple TDs in the time he vultures from MG3 already. He can catch passes and is an easy check down option for Rivers WHEN the Browns put pressure in the pocket.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Will Fuller – Houston Texans – $6,800
Analysis: Keke Coutee might be starting to take Fuller’s target share and usage. But I am playing the defensive matchup here over Nuk Hopkins. Tradavious White is becoming a really good, possibly elite, cover corner for the Bills. He will shadow Nuk, who is matchup proof. But that may force Watson to look in other directions. With the running game in shambles, the Texans’ best way to beat Buffalo through the air, and Fuller has a long sample size of success with Watson (who is questionable this week) as his quarterback.
Calvin Ridley – Atlanta Falcons – $6,300
Analysis: You can guess what receiver will show up on this week’s Cash Game Index, but Calvin Ridley could easily be a 2-TD receiver this week again against the Bucs, pissing us all off that the other receiver, who will be named later, goose eggs in the TD department again. Bucs are No.1 in fantasy points allowed to receivers.
Doug Baldwin – Seattle Seahawks – $5,300
Analysis: One catch. That’s all he has is one god damn catch? Baldwin felt like a lock last week, but his 1 catch, 1-yard performance killed a lot of lineups last week. But that’s why we hop on this week against Oakland. The Raiders can’t cover Baldwin and ownership will be driven down because of last week’s performance.
Amari Cooper – Oakland Raiders – $5,200
Analysis: Looking at his flow chart, Amari Cooper is down then up, down then up, then down again in Week 5. There’s only one way to go and that’s up, right? Raiders vs. Seattle has the makings of a shootout.
Robby Anderson – New York Jets – $4,600
Analysis: He’s going to have games where he blows up. That game was last week. Hopefully we can go back to the well one more time for cheap against a bad Colts secondary that has given up big games to A.J. Green and the Texans receivers.
David Moore – Seattle Seahawks – $3,600
Analysis: David Moore played at my high school alma mater, and I covered him when he played in high school. I had a few shares last week when he caught two touchdowns, but they weren’t quite in the right lineups. It appears Wilson and him have some rapport, and he could be overtaking Brandon Marshall for the No. 3 wideout position. It’s a dart throw, but he’s flashy, makes contested catches and can haul ass down the field.
TIGHT ENDS
Jordan Reed – Washington Redskins – $5,200
Analysis: Tight end is absolutely ugly this week. Most guys I like are cash game options, but leave it to a disappointing Jordan Reed to be the lone tournament-only play for me this week. Taking on the Panthers, Washington and Reed face a defense that hasn’t faced an athletic, speedy tight end other than Tyler Eifert, who scored a TD against this team a few weeks ago.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Arizona Cardinals) – $3,800
Analysis: Expensive, at home facing a very bad offense and highly favored. The Vikings should make life miserable for Josh Rosen and the Cardinals as the Vikes have 14 sacks in 5 games this season.
Houston Texans (vs. Buffalo Bills) – $3,500
Analysis: Defense is playing Buffalo? Play them.
Carolina Panthers (at Washington Redskins) – $2,600
Analysis: I almost want to play both defenses from this game in tournaments, but the Panthers are cheap, Redskins are coming off a short week where they got thrashed by Drew Brees and the Saints, and their offense looks dreadful (and could be without Chris Thompson). Carolina can put pressure in the pocket and force turnovers .
