Heading into Week 14, Drew Brees was coming off a 3-interception performance at home against the Lions.
So naturally he got what looked like a solid road matchup against Tampa in Week 14, and many of you were thinking “surely, he doesn’t go scoreless two weeks in a row.”
You also probably thought “there’s no way he throws 3 INTs again.”
Well, if you fell into either or both thoughts, you were way wrong. Brees has thrown 3 INTs in back-to-back games and gets probably his most difficult test to date – a road matchup with the Arizona Cardinals (but more on Brees later).
Another quarterback to throw zero TDs and multiple interceptions was Ben Roethlisberger, who threw 2. Granted, it was some nasty weather and Le’Veon Bell is awesome, so Big Ben didn’t really have to do anything to overcome the mistakes.
Eli Manning made this list last week and in Eli fashion, needs to check his pants. Three turnovers, including two fumbles, and to make matters worse, his team still beat my Cowboys.
Lastly, the coup de gras of futility in Week 14 – Russell Wilson. He only threw a career high 5 INTs in a loss to Green Bay, not too shabby.
It was a weird week for QBs overall as Trevor Siemian and Aaron Rodgers were the two top fantasy QBs of the week.
Oh, those guys were on the Value Index last week? Hmm…that’s interesting.
Sorry, shameless plug. Can I duplicate that success this week?
For the first time all season, the Value Index fell out of the top 3 of the Expert Rankings. But we are a mere hundreths of a point behind and could easily reclaim a top-3 spot with a great week.
Like I’ve said before, I am not going to make the easy picks, even though they are incredibly valuable. DJ, Bell and McCoy are in great spots this week as you are likely aware, and their prices reflect matchup and or recent production. I am not going to take the points for our rankings just to help my score.
But what I will do is provide you a list of players I like that are vastly underpriced this week that we can exploit to our benefit. I no longer try to make picks I think will make value, but rather see the value in their reduced price plus their matchup.
A couple of other things about this week before we get to the picks: 1. The tight end position couldn’t be any worse this week, so yea, good luck with that one. 2. There are a few players that are ridiculously priced that aren’t on this list, but I don’t like them this week due to matchup or other narrative. Those players include DeAndre Hopkins, Delanie Walker and Jeremy Maclin, but use them at your own discretion.
Let’s get to the picks, shall we?
Drew Brees – QB – Saints – vs. Arizona Cardinals – $6,600
Analysis: As I mentioned above, Brees is coming off of back-to-back zero TD, 3-INT performances. Now he gets a road date against the Arizona Cardinals. His price has come way down and we don’t know about the status of Michael Thomas or the Honey Badger (but it looks like he might play). Whatever happens with the injury scenarios, I just have this feeling Brees is going to come back strong. This game is indoors where Brees thrives and he’s absolutely struggled mightily the past two games. This is honestly a gut call for me because of his reduced price and volume. I don’t know if he throws for 300 yards and 3 TDs, but I fully expect 250 and 2. I think this is going to be a game where Tim Hightower and Ingram get some pass-catching duties out of the backfield as well. Patrick Peterson shadows New Orleans best receiver, but with the emergence of Michael Thomas (and assuming he plays), I could see this being a sneaky Brandin Cooks day with Snead facing Tyrann Mathieu. This should be the cheapest we see Brees all season long, but I can’t help but think that this elite quarterback is going to have three straight dreadful performances (yes, I am probably crazy about this pick).
Tyrod Taylor – QB – Bills – vs. Cleveland Browns – $5,700
Analysis: As we get toward the end of the regular season, we want to start thinking in the playoff mindset. Records and stats can kind of go out the window in matchups where both teams have a lot on the line. The good thing here is we don’t have to throw out records and stats when the Browns are playing. The Bills are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Steelers at home and now get to try and right the ship against Cleveland in hopes of keeping playoff chances alive. Only twice this season have opposing quarterbacks not thrown 2 TDs or more against Cleveland. TyGod may not throw for 300 yards, but he may go for 225-250 and 2 TDs, adding another 30-40 yards on the ground to raise his floor. He’s perfectly priced at $5,700 and that is just too cheap for any quarterback taking on Cleveland. There is some talk about Tyrod losing his job, but to who, E.J. Manuel? Did Rex Ryan forget that Tyrod has not had his best receiver most of the year? I don’t get that talk and I don’t buy it. If anything, I buy it being a motivational tool for Taylor. I think he is safe in both formats.
DeMarco Murray – RB – Titans – vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $6,900
Analysis: Yes, Derrick Henry got a lot of touches last week against Denver, buuuut that’s how you attack the Broncos. Murray got 21 touches and a score and remains a safe cash game play with tournament upside at a discounted price. Murray was a member of the Value Index last week as we have seen him in the $8K range a lot this season. The Chiefs have allowed three straight 100-yard rushing games to opponents and with Mariota likely struggling to throw to Delanie Walker (Chiefs and Eric Berry are stout against TEs), I like this to be another solid effort for Murray, as long as Henry doesn’t continue to get too many red zone touches. The Chiefs allow 122.9 yards rushing per game and the Titans have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. It’s going to be very cold in KC and that sets up well for the Titans’ rushing attack.
Lamar Miller – RB – Texans – vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,400
Analysis: I believe I said last week that I thought Lamar Miller was underpriced, but I couldn’t pull the trigger due to health concerns. Well, I hope I am not chasing the points here, but i don’t think we have an injury to worry about this week. In a home matchup against a run-funnel defense (defense defends the pass well, but allows rushing attacks to succeed), Miller sets up nicely for another 20-touch performance. Brock Osweiler looks like a wet noodle trying to throw a football. With the QB struggles and Jacksonville’s top-10 pass defense, I am banking on this being a spot where Houston realizes Miller needs to eat. He still hasn’t been used like a 3-down back this season, but when given 20 or more touches this season, Miller has 4 100-yard games and 3 rushing touchdowns. Are you reading this Bill? Jacksonville allows 113 yards rushing per game and with Bortles at QB, there’s always turnover opportunities for Houston that lead to short fields.
LeGarrette Blount – RB – Patriots – vs. Denver Broncos – $5,000
Analysis: For the same reasons I loved DeMarco Murray last week, I love LeGarrette Blount this week. Tom Brady is a good quarterback, you and I know that, but Denver’s defense is just really that damn good. I think this is a week Brady struggles on the road and without his best passing weapon. Success against Denver comes on the ground and with tight ends. Blount is a hard, bruising runner with 14 touchdowns on the season already. The Broncos are one of the worst rush defenses in the league, allowing 127 yards per game. This feels like a double-touchdown game to me. Brady dinking and dunking, then handing off to Blount close to the endzone. James White and Dion Lewis also are in play here, but I like Blount to reach paydirt.
Kenneth Farrow – RB – Chargers – vs. Oakland Raiders – $4,400
Analysis: Value is opening up at the RB position later in the week and rookie Kenneth Farrow is one of those value plays. It appears Melvin Gordon isn’t suiting up this week and in his stead last week, Farrow finished with 16 carries and caught all six of his targets. There’s some talk about Ronnie Hillman eating into Farrow’s touches, but I don’t buy it unless Farrow fumbles early on. Farrow was a solid running back at Houston and has always had pass-catching ability. In this offense, I think any bigger backs with good hands can succeed (yes, that’s a pop shot at Melvin Gordon). Oakland is allowing 120 yards rushing per game this season, including SEVEN games of 100 yards or more. To make matters better, the Raiders have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns. It shouldn’t take much for Farrow to reach value in a game that features a projected total of 50 points.
Kenneth Dixon – RB – Ravens – vs. Philadelphia Eagles – $3,800
Analysis: The other value running back this week is Mr. Dixon. Terrence West received just two touches last week against New England, but I attribute that to Baltimore playing the majority of the game from behind and Dixon is a great pass catcher out of the backfield (did this a lot in college at Louisiana Tech). I don’t see the Ravens playing from behind as much in this one, if at all, so I could see West getting forced back into the picture. At $3,800 though, I don’t think we need to worry much about Dixon breaking our lineups as he should see the majority of the touches and is clearly the more talented running back. West is a slower version of Fat Eddie Lacy while Dixon is the more skilled running with speed and huge upside if he breaks one loose. The Eagles have been decent against the run, but can be leaky at times. I like Jeremy Hill in this spot a couple of weeks ago at a more expensive price and he was a solid cash game play in the end. Dixon is much better than Hill and much cheaper.
Odell Beckham – WR – Giants – vs. Detroit Lions – $8,000
Analysis: The Cowboys don’t have the Giants’ number this year and now New York is thrust back into the division title picture. The Lions are coming off a tough divisional game against Chicago and could be facing wet conditions. Eli was atrocious in last week’s victory, fumbling twice and throwing a pick. Somehow he found OBJ on a long bomb and salvaged his fantasy day. OBJ has another great spot this week and is back at home where he and Eli continue to find success. The Lions are allowing 250 yards passing per game and nearly 20 points. The totals for this game are low, but OBJ is still just too cheap to ignore for the upside. He only needs 20 points to return less than 3x value. The Lions have allowed 12 TDs to receivers this year, though a lot of that was front loaded in the beginning of the season. Bears receivers had nearly 200 yards and a TD last week and OBJ is much more talented than any of them put together. The Giants also don’t run the ball very well and OBJ is nearly averaging double-digit targets per game. We know where the damn ball is going in this one.
Dez Bryant – WR – Cowboys – vs. Tampa Bay Bucs – $6,800
Analysis: You don’t think this is a great spot for Dez? That’s fine. He’s usually priced in the $8K range, but with the emergence of Ezekiel Elliott, production has been down for Dez. However, he is still getting a strong number of targets, including 9 last week against the Giants. Dez will have some duds and when he does he almost always comes back for a vengeance. This game is in primetime and at home against Tampa, who has come on strong defensively the past few games. The national stage will only fuel Dez, but so will his 1-catch, 1 fumble performance from last week. After his 1 catch game against the Giants in Week 1, Dez came back with 7 catches for 102 yards on 12 targets. After his 1-catch performance against Cleveland in Week 9, Dez went off for 6 catches, 119 yards and a score. Really, Dez has been really reliable this year with three games under 10 points. Unfortunately, those games were under 5 points. He gets the volume and has the upside and you are getting him at just $6,800. Tampa has allowed 16 scores to wide receivers this year, though that number has improved from the beginning of the season. Zeke should be fed, Dez should eat his leftovers and I like the Cowboys to rebound.
Sammy Watkins – WR – Bills – vs. Buffalo Bills – $5,900
Analysis: Sammy made the list two weeks ago and disappointed. I didn’t put him on the list last week and he would’ve been a safe cash game play. He’s still not about the $6K range and gets a pristine matchup this week against Cleveland. Working his way back from injury, Watkins played 94 percent of the snaps last week, so it’s safe to assume he’s back to full strength. Cleveland has been torched by opposing wideouts this season, allowing 17 TDs, including 7 multiple-score games. We are relying on TyRod to throw him the ball, but Sammy is an elite talent when healthy and has break away speed. Let’s just hope Shady doesn’t eat first and limit Sammy’s upside. How about we just hope Cleveland keeps this close despite a double-digit spread favoring Buffalo. Sammy should be slammin’ this week.
Allen Robinson – WR – Jaguars – vs. Houston Texans – $4,400
Analysis: Above is my reaction when I saw Allen Robinson’s price. I get that Blake Bortles is throwing him the ball and I get that they are playing the Texans, but his price has dropped exponentially since the start of the season. His production has been hit or miss all year and a reduction in price is warranted. However, I think this price reflects a healthy Houston team, of which, Houston is not. They are likely without Jonathan Joseph this week, a top-rated corner that likely would’ve seen a lot of A-Rob. A.J. Bouye has taken his place. A-Rob is one of those receivers that can be moved around formations in hopes of creating mismatches and finding open space. So far, that’s been rather difficult, but the Jaguars have had some really tough matchups this season. He only saw 3 targets last week, but that was due to a touch matchup against shutdown corner Xavier Rhoades of the Vikings. The Jags are without Julius Thomas and likely Allen Hurns, leaving Marquise Lee to eat up some target share. A-Rob is my favorite play on this slate and it’s going to be hard for me not to have him in every lineup this week. He’s going to see double-digit targets in a scenario where his team is likely playing from behind in a road game. This game has a super low total which means we usually stay away from them, but for me, the value and upside is just too awesome not to play him. Oh yea, A-Rob torched this team for 9 catches on 13 targets for 107 yards and a score. Meh, not bad.
Blake Bell – TE – San Francisco 49ers – vs. Atlanta Falcons – $2,500
Analysis: Tight end sucks. I am going to do my very best to pay down at the position (with maybe some exposure to Walker and Martellus Bennett). I have not hit on a tight end much down the stretch and I feel like it’s really a crapshoot. So I liked Vance McDonald last week and he got hurt, so in his stead we have Blake the Bell Dozer. A former OU QB, Bell has experience manning offenses in the red zone and scoring on QB keepers. I am not saying San Francisco is going to do this, I am just saying that Blake Bell knows how to score when given opportunities. He’s also athletic enough to have Colin Kaepernick throw him 6 or 7 passes and catch 3 or 4 of them (Kaep completes about 50 percent of his passes). I don’t think you have to worry about Garrett Celek as much here because he’s more of a blocker. Bell saw two targets last week and caught 1 pass for 30 yards. Atlanta has been atrocious against TEs all season long, allowing 71 catches to the position. In three of their games, they allowed no catches to TEs because well those teams don’t really have a good option to throw to anyway. Kaep has an array of lunch-box guys (meaning guys who come to work ready to play, but are really just some dudes with a helmet on filling a roster spot). Bell probably falls in that category, but I think Bell is a great punt option at $2,500 against one of the worst teams against the position in a week that is just littered with garbage. And I’ve written way too much on a fringe punt TE play…
