I can’t help but hear Nat King Cole’s “Unforgettable” playing over and over in my head after Week 3…
Brady remained the GOAT, but the Index’s picks were a disaster, and mostly chalky.
Jay Ajayi is dead to me, also. After the knee issue started coming up, I felt less and less comfortable, but I still played him in cash anyway. And he’s anything but a model cash game play – no passing work out of the backfield, inflated price, Jets’ first home game, Miami traveling west to east, Cutler is still their quarterback, and the end result was a mixture of those things.
But we move on to Week 4 and after this week, we can finally start to use more data in our research and selections – yards per game, points scored per game, points allowed per game, how defenses will lineup against receivers, DVOA, etc.
Also after Week 4, teams will have bye weeks so slates will be even smaller after DraftKings eliminated the Sunday Night game this week (a hot-topic among the DFS Twitterverse).
Before we get into picks, we will get to the positional rankings, top fades, top stacks and top narratives and so on.
BUT, I just don’t know how I can include tight end in any part of the Index this week. The position options suck outside of Gronk and we can’t use Kelce or Graham either. I mean looking at this thing, the value plays that stick out are Kyle Rudolph and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (the most overrated DFS TE ever), and I like Evan Engram as a contrarian play. Maybe Eric Ebron, Jason Witten is too expensive, Austin Hooper is unreliable, the Chargers have a Tight End by committee (TEBC for those of you wondering), Cameron Brate is in a great spot, but how many looks will he actually get with Mike Evans as the squeaky wheel?
There’s no Tyler Eifert, I am not chasing Marcedes Lewis’ production or Ben Watson’s. Zach Ertz is a good player, but his price is way too high. Jared Cook? No. Denver doesn’t have tight ends, Delanie Walker could be in play, but his health is an issue. I don’t like hamstring injuries for DFS, plus he’s facing Houston on the road after the Titans had a big win at home against the Seahawks.
I don’t play Charles Clay, Ed Dickson is Ed Dickson, and George Kittle is a GPP dart throw along with Jermaine Gresham, Ryan Griffin, Jesse James (also hurt), David Njoku and O.J. Howard.
Tight end is a mess. I might just go all Gronk because he is the only elite option on this slate, in my opinion.
Anyway, I spent way too much time on the tight end. Time for rankings and picks. Good luck in Week 4!
Quarterbacks
- Tom Brady
- Matt Ryan
- Dak Prescott
- Trevor Siemian
- Philip Rivers
Running Backs
- LeSean McCoy
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Dalvin Cook
- C.J. Anderson
- Le’Veon Bell
Wide Receivers
- DeAndre Hopkins
- A.J. Green
- Julio Jones
- Odell Beckham, Jr.
- Dez Bryant
Defense/Special Teams
- Arizona Cardinals
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Denver Broncos
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Baltimore Ravens
Top Stacks
- Dak Prescott/Ezekiel Elliott/Dez Bryant
- Tom Brady/Brandin Cooks/Rob Gronkowski
- Matt Ryan/Devonta Freeman/Julio Jones
- Joe Mixon/A.J. Green
- Trevor Siemian/C.J. Anderson/Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders
- DeShaun Watson/DeAndre Hopkins
- Philip Rivers/Keenan Allen
Top Fades
- Antonio Brown
- Le’Veon Bell
- Todd Gurley
- Melvin Gordon
- Mike Evans
- Stefon Diggs
- Amari Cooper
- DeMarco Murray
- Carson Wentz
- Jason Witten
Top Narratives/Storylines
- Cam Newton failed against Saints, cheapest price ever, faces even worse defense in New England
- Tom Brady at home
- DeShaun Watson making first home start of the season
- Ben Roethlisberger on the road
- Todd Gurley called win over Cowboys after SF win
- Cardinals at home vs. San Fran
- Baltimore and Jacksonville playing after overseas trip to London
- Melvin Gordon questionable
- Giants/Chargers/49ers only teams without a win
Dak Prescott – QB – Dallas Cowboys – $6,200
Analysis: 22, 17 and 17. Those are Dak’s DraftKings point totals through the first three weeks. Facing the Rams, who have allowed 27 and 39 points in back-to-back weeks, Dak and the Cowboys head home after getting right against the Cardinals on the road Monday night. It is a shorter week, but I am not worried. Dak has been a model of consistency and could be on pace to improve his fantasy performances in his sophomore season. I am a Cowboys’ fan myself and this is the first matchup I have loved for them this season. I think DZD (Dak, Zeke, Dez) is a great 3-man stack here as the Rams gave up 39 points to the 49ers just last week. Dak has some extra floor with his rushing upside, though he isn’t a run-first quarterback.He’s very consistent and can easily reach 3-4 value each week due to his depressed price.
DeAndre Hopkins – WR – Houston Texans – $6,400
Analysis: Now I hate that Will Fuller is back, but I am not going to let that sway me from my initial feelings of excitement earlier in the week. DeShaun Watson peppers Hopkins with targets and Watson is making his first home start. Hopkins has target totals of 16, 13 and 8 in the first three weeks, he’s only found the end zone once. Now the Texans get a chance to redeem an embarrassing loss at home in Week 1. The Titans allowed 364 passing to the Seahawks last week and 250 yards passing in Week 1. At this price and with his target share, Nuk is a cash game lock for me.
Dalvin Cook – RB – Minnesota Vikings – $6,500
Analysis: Workhorse back? Check. Gets passing game work out of the backfield? Check. Value price? Check. Facing a defense that finally faced a good running back and failed? Check. Detroit can’t stop the run and has a difficult time with chasing around backs that get passes out of the backfield. Cook is clearly one of the top rookie RBs this year and he looks to be one of the better cash game options this week.
