Last week was a fun week at the BMW PGA Championship, with Alex Noren stealing the title by shooting a scorching 62 on Sunday. He’s had one of the best years in European Tour history, and continues to climb the world rankings. He’s firmly on my radar heading into the remaining majors this season. Overall, I had a poor week, mostly due to Tommy Fleetwood missing the cut.
This week, we head back to Sweden for the Nordea Masters, one of my favorite events of the year. Last year’s winner was Matthew Fitzpatrick, who always seems to pop in these “Masters” events. Last week we gave a nod to Brits, so this week we give the same nod to the Swedes. Henrik Stenson and Alex Noren lead the charge, although I think it’s smart to fade Noren off the huge win. He struggled to back up his four wins last season, and I expect that trend to continue.
The Nordea Masters is on a bit of course rotation, and this week the Tour heads to Barseback for the first time since 2009. Therefore, we’re going to disregard any course history this week, and focus on key stats and recent form. Barseback is a tricky, tree-lined course that will test player’s accuracy and patience. It’s a par-73, featuring four par-5s but only three par-3s. Ultimately, this course will draw comparisons to many of the Spanish and Italian courses players see throughout the season. I’m going to target ball-strikers this week.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy
- Birdie or Better %
- Greens in Regulation %
- Recent Form
Let’s look at my favorite plays this week:
The Favourites:
Henrik Stenson ($11,500) – Not only is Stenson playing a home game in Sweden this week, but this is his home course. Chances are, he doesn’t play here a ton since he’s traveling all season, but he’ll know the course better than anyone in the field. He’s an elite ball-striker who seems to be finding his form again, notably finishing 3rd last week at Wentworth. Stenson will want to get a win under his belt heading into major season, just as he did last year before winning the Claret Jug.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,800) – If Stenson doesn’t take home the trophy this week, I’m picking Matthew Fitzpatrick. The young Englishman has been inconsistent this season, but has popped up numerous times in big events. He posted a strong Sunday to finish 12th last week at Wentworth, a course very comparable to what players will see. Tree-lined courses are his specialty, and we know he’s capable of winning in Sweden. Fitz is the defending champion at this event, albeit a different course.
Alexander Levy ($9,500) – Levy was a little disappointing last week at Wentworth, but I’m going to continue to ride the hot hand. He’s been making birdies in bunches, and is just a couple weeks removed from a win at the China Open. With the 2018 Ryder Cup coming to France, Levy is extra-motivated to make his team debut. He’s posted strong finishes at this event over the years, although neither was at Barseback.
Pablo Larrazabal ($8,300) – I’ve referred to Larrazabal as the European Tour’s Billy Horschel, so maybe a Horschel-eque win is in the cards? The Spaniard is extremely streaky, and has now strung together a handful of top-25s, including last week at Wentworth. He’s one of the few players in the field who played Barseback in 2009, where he hung around the top-10 most of the week. If Larrazabal can continue to make birdies at this torrid pace, he’ll be in contention on Sunday.
Stephen Gallacher ($7,300) – Gallacher is a seasoned veteran who has battled his way back from injuries over the past year. He’s still been inconsistent, but we’ve seen three top-20s and a top-10 over the past few months, which is impressive. This tree-lined track should suit his patient game well, and he flashed some form with a 21st last week at Wentworth.
Paul Dunne ($7,000) – Dunne has been knocking on the door of a win all season, coming closest with a runner-up at the Hero Indian Open. Dunne then backed it up with 30th and 33rd place finishes his past two events, including last week’s event at Wentworth. Anytime we see a tree-lined, accuracy track, I always put Dunne on my radar. He’s shown that nothing intimidates him, and he’s ready to contend in any field. As long as Dunne avoids the big numbers, he’ll be a great selection this week.
Peter Hanson ($7,000) – Another Swede who I think could surprise this week is Peter Hanson. The savvy veteran has struggled with consistency, but finished 21st last week at the BMW PGA Championship. He posted several top-20s earlier this season, and still has some of the best birdie-making abilities on Tour. There’s no better place for Hanson to pop than a tree-lined course in his home country. He’s a past winner of this event, and finished runner-up here at Barseback in 2004.
Alexander Bjork ($6,800) – One of my favorite sleepers this week is Sweden’s Alexander Bjork. The Challenge Tour graduate has been in stellar form this season, before slumping in the past month. He’s battled back the past two events, including a 14th place finish last week at Wentworth. He’s an accurate ball-striker who should suit this track tremendously. Bjork made his debut in this event last season, where he opened with back-to-back 68s in front of the home galleries.
Tom Lewis ($6,700) – Lewis is very volatile, but I love what I’ve seen from him recently. Lewis has posted 18th and 11th place finishes in his past two events, and comes to Sweden brimming with confidence. He’s seen his fellow Englishmen Jordan Smith, Aaron Rai, and Matt Wallace play well this season, and should be inspired. This short, tree-lined course should bring back memories of many English layouts back home.
Matteo Manassero ($6,600) – This course not only has English characteristics, but reminds me of many courses on the Italian Open rotation. That immediately brings Manassero to mind, as he’s the typical Italian ball-striker. He’s not nearly as consistent as guys like Francesco Molinari, but he’s been playing great golf over the past year. He’s made eight straight cuts on Tour, including a 3rd place finish at the Hero Indian Open. Paul Dunne finished 2nd that week, and I think the two youngsters have very comparable games.
Good luck this week!
Ryan
