This will be the final installment of the NFL Offensive Tendencies for this season. Today we will review the Conference Championship matchups and I have also supplied some end of the year results showing how the projections did this season at the bottom of the article.
This week with only two games between the top teams of each conference there are not going to be any big increased opportunities to exploit, so I have included numerous “Gut Calls” for each team with predictions of players I think can standout this week.
So let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| New England Patriots | 66 | 42 | 63.6% | 261 | 1.8 | 24 | 36.4% | 87 | 0.8 | 23.2 |
| Denver Broncos | 66 | 41 | 62.1% | 271 | 1.4 | 25 | 37.9% | 106 | 0.7 | 19.7 |
The Patriots project to execute their typical play distribution against the Broncos this week. The passing game will be less effective than usual with a decrease in passing yards and decreased chance for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game will perform in line with their typical level of production in yardage and opportunity for a rushing score. The Patriots pass over 54% of the time inside the 10 yards line.
Look for the Broncos to pass slightly more often than usual this week, as I expect them to be coming from behind during the second half. The increase in pass attempts will result in a slight increase in passing yards and a slightly increased chance for more than one touchdown pass. The running game will produce their typical rushing yardage, but will have a slightly decreased chance for a rushing touchdown. The Broncos pass over 58% of the time in the red zone.
Gut Calls:
- Tom Brady throws 2 TD passes (James White, Rob Gronkowski)
- James White will also have 5+ receptions and a rushing touchdown
- Stephen Gostkowski kicks 2-3 FGs
- Peyton Manning throws 2 TD passes (Demaryius Thomas, Owen Daniels)
- Broncos do not score a rushing touchdown
- Bennie Fowler has 60+ yards receiving
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Arizona Cardinals | 66 | 39 | 59.1% | 261 | 1.7 | 27 | 40.9% | 110 | 0.9 | 22.7 |
| Carolina Panthers | 64 | 32 | 50.0% | 219 | 1.7 | 32 | 50.0% | 136 | 1.0 | 24.9 |
Look for the Cardinals to go to the air more often than usual this week. Despite an increase in attempts, the passing will still see a decrease in their passing yards and opportunity for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game will also see a slight decrease in yardage with their usual opportunity for one rushing touchdown. The Cardinals pass the ball almost 60% of the time in the red zone.
The Panthers will execute their usual run-heavy play distribution against the Cardinals. The passing game will have a decrease in passing yards and their opportunity for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game will produce their typical rushing yardage with a slightly reduced chance for any more than one rushing score. The Panthers run the ball over 58% of the time in the red zone.
Gut Calls:
- Carson Palmer throws 1 TD pass (Larry Fitzgerald)
- David Johnson scores 2 rushing TDs
- Cam Newton throws 2 TD passes (Greg Olsen, Mike Tolbert)
- Cam Newton rushes for 60+ yards
- Jonathan Stewart scores a rushing TD
- Graham Gano kicks 2 FGs
And finally, here the results from the Offensive Tendency projections from the regular season…
Team yardage predictions
How many times the prediction was within 40 passing yards and 20 rushing yards each week and overall.
| Week | < 40 Pass Yds | % < 40 Pass Yds | < 20 Rush Yds | % < 20 Rush Yds | Teams |
| 1 | 12 | 38% | 16 | 50% | 32 |
| 2 | 18 | 56% | 21 | 66% | 32 |
| 3 | 9 | 28% | 17 | 53% | 32 |
| 4 | 9 | 30% | 20 | 67% | 30 |
| 5 | 11 | 39% | 19 | 68% | 28 |
| 6 | 14 | 50% | 19 | 68% | 28 |
| 7 | 14 | 50% | 20 | 71% | 28 |
| 8 | 11 | 39% | 15 | 54% | 28 |
| 9 | 14 | 54% | 17 | 65% | 26 |
| 10 | 10 | 36% | 13 | 46% | 28 |
| 11 | 16 | 57% | 15 | 54% | 28 |
| 12 | 14 | 44% | 18 | 56% | 32 |
| 13 | 16 | 50% | 22 | 69% | 32 |
| 14 | 12 | 38% | 19 | 59% | 32 |
| 15 | 14 | 44% | 18 | 56% | 32 |
| 16 | 12 | 38% | 22 | 69% | 32 |
| 17 | 15 | 47% | 18 | 56% | 32 |
| Total | 221 | 43% | 309 | 60% | 512 |
Team touchdown predictions
How many times the prediction was correct rounded to the nearest whole number each week and overall.
| Week | Pass TD <0.5 | % < 0.5 Pass TD | Rush TD < 0.5 | % < 0.5 Rush TD | Teams |
| 1 | 13 | 41% | 7 | 22% | 32 |
| 2 | 14 | 44% | 8 | 25% | 32 |
| 3 | 14 | 44% | 12 | 38% | 32 |
| 4 | 6 | 20% | 10 | 33% | 30 |
| 5 | 13 | 46% | 11 | 39% | 28 |
| 6 | 13 | 46% | 6 | 21% | 28 |
| 7 | 10 | 36% | 12 | 43% | 28 |
| 8 | 9 | 32% | 8 | 29% | 28 |
| 9 | 9 | 35% | 11 | 42% | 26 |
| 10 | 11 | 39% | 15 | 54% | 28 |
| 11 | 12 | 43% | 12 | 43% | 28 |
| 12 | 9 | 28% | 13 | 41% | 32 |
| 13 | 10 | 31% | 11 | 34% | 32 |
| 14 | 10 | 31% | 13 | 41% | 32 |
| 15 | 7 | 22% | 14 | 44% | 32 |
| 16 | 12 | 38% | 15 | 47% | 32 |
| 17 | 11 | 34% | 14 | 44% | 32 |
| Total | 183 | 36% | 192 | 38% | 512 |
I will look to improve on these numbers next season. Thanks to everyone who regularly read my Offensive Tendencies articles this season, hopefully, you found them helpful. As always feel free to provide any comments below or direct message me on Twitter with any suggestions you would like to see for next season.
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