The NFL regular season may be starting to wind down, but the level of intensity for teams looking to make a playoff push are at their peak over the next couple of weeks with so many teams still alive for a playoff spot. This should lead to very competitive games with teams and players trying to perform at a very high level which can, in turn, produce some huge fantasy performances as we have seen over the last couple of weeks. Week 15 should be no different and there are plenty of increased opportunities again this week to take advantage of.
So let’s dig in and take a look at the numbers and analysis…
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ St. Louis Rams
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 66 | 35 | 53.0% | 230 | 1.3 | 31 | 47.0% | 134 | 0.7 | 19.6 |
| St. Louis Rams | 63 | 35 | 55.6% | 224 | 1.3 | 28 | 44.4% | 125 | 0.8 | 20.5 |
Look for the Buccaneers to run a few more plays than normal with their typical play distribution. The passing game production will fall in line with their typical output for both yardage and touchdown opportunity. The running game will also produce their typical rushing yardage with an opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Buccaneers run the ball just over 50% of the time in the red zone.
The Rams will run more plays than usual this week with their typical play distribution. The passing game should have a small increase in passing yards and their likelihood for a touchdown pass. The running game will produce their typical yardage with a slightly decreased chance for a rushing touchdown. The Rams run the ball 60% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Case Keenum and the Rams passing game (Kenny Britt) (+)
- I also like the Bucs kicker (Connor Barth) (+)
New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| New York Jets | 66 | 37 | 56.1% | 242 | 1.6 | 29 | 43.9% | 119 | 0.9 | 22.5 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 63 | 36 | 57.1% | 237 | 1.3 | 27 | 42.9% | 116 | 0.4 | 18.3 |
The Jets project to run the ball slightly more often than usual this week. The passing game will have a decrease in passing yards and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will produce their typical rushing yardage, but will have a slightly increased likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The Jets pass over 54% of the time in the red zone.
The Cowboys will run a few more plays with a couple more pass attempts than normal. The passing game will see a slight increase in passing yards and their likelihood for one touchdown pass. The running game will produce their typical rushing yardage with a significantly decreased chance for a rushing score. The Cowboys pass over 60% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Chris Ivory chance for rushing TD (+)
- Matt Cassel and the Cowboys passing game (Cole Beasley) (+)
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Chicago Bears | 65 | 36 | 55.4% | 231 | 1.3 | 29 | 44.6% | 115 | 0.7 | 19.6 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 62 | 32 | 51.6% | 228 | 1.3 | 30 | 48.4% | 157 | 0.9 | 21.6 |
The Bears project to pass slightly more often than usual this week. The passing game projects to pass for fewer yards than normal but will have a slightly increased likelihood for at least one touchdown pass. The running game should produce their typical yardage with a slightly decreased chance for a rushing touchdown. The Bears pass over 53% of the time in the red zone.
Look for the Vikings to be even more run heavy than normal. The passing game will produce their typical yardage, but have an increased likelihood for a touchdown pass. The running game will have an increase in rushing yards with their typical opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Vikings run the ball over 62% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Adrian Peterson (++)
Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Atlanta Falcons | 69 | 43 | 62.3% | 293 | 1.7 | 26 | 37.7% | 101 | 0.8 | 22.4 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 65 | 40 | 61.5% | 284 | 2.0 | 25 | 38.5% | 107 | 0.8 | 24.2 |
The Falcons project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will have a slight increase in passing yards and an increased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will produce their typical rushing yardage and opportunity for one rushing touchdown. The Falcons have an almost even 50/50 split between run and pass plays in the red zone this season.
The Jaguars project to run the ball slightly more often than usual this week. The passing game should still produce their typical yardage with a slightly decreased chance for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game will have a slight increase in rushing yards and a significantly increased opportunity for a rushing touchdown.
Increased Opportunities:
- Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game (Julio Jones) (++)
- Denard Robinson (++)
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Houston Texans | 70 | 41 | 58.6% | 267 | 1.9 | 29 | 41.4% | 115 | 0.7 | 22.7 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 66 | 40 | 60.6% | 241 | 1.6 | 26 | 38.4% | 104 | 0.6 | 20.2 |
The Texans project to have a very slight shift to the running game with TJ Yates at quarterback this week. The passing game should still produce close to their typical production for both yardage and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will have a slight increase in rushing yards with an increased opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Texans pass 59% of the time in the red zone.
The Colts have not declared who their starting quarterback will be this week, I am going to assume Matt Hasselbeck starts for this projection. Look for the Colts to run the ball slightly more often than normal this week. The Colts passing game will produce fewer passing yards than normal with a decreased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will see a slight uptick in rushing yardage and their opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Colts pass the ball over 58% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Chris Polk chance for a rushing TD (+)
- Frank Gore chance for a rushing TD (+)
- Both defenses could also be options (+)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 63 | 34 | 54.0% | 237 | 1.6 | 29 | 46.0% | 125 | 1.0 | 24.1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 66 | 43 | 65.2% | 255 | 1.4 | 23 | 34.8% | 87 | 0.4 | 18.2 |
Look for the Chiefs to execute a few more plays than normal with a slight shift to the running game this week. The passing game will produce their typical yardage but will have an increased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will have their typical rushing yardage with a decrease chance for any more than one rushing score. The Chiefs run the ball over 64% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
The Ravens may have Matt Schaub back at quarterback this week. Look for the Ravens to pass slightly more often than usual. The passing game will be less effective with a decrease in passing yards and their typical likelihood for one touchdown pass. The running game will also have a slight decrease in yardage with their typical low opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Ravens pass over 60% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Alex Smith chance for 2ndTD pass (+)
- Chiefs Defense (++)
Buffalo Bills @ Washington Redskins
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Buffalo Bills | 64 | 33 | 51.6% | 228 | 1.7 | 31 | 48.4% | 143 | 0.9 | 22.5 |
| Washington Redskins | 65 | 38 | 58.5% | 257 | 1.6 | 27 | 41.5% | 106 | 0.7 | 21.1 |
The Bills project to execute their typical play distribution this week. The passing game should perform in line with their typical level of production for both yardage and touchdown opportunity. The running game will also get their normal rushing yardage with a slightly decreased likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The Bills run the ball over 60% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Look for the Redskins to run a couple more plays than usual with their typical play distribution. The passing game will produce their typical passing yardage with a slightly increased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will see a slight increase in rushing yards and their opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Redskins pass over 55% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Kirk Cousins chance for 2nd TD pass (+)
- Matt Jones (+)
- Gut Call: This game could become a shootout (Other players I like are LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, and Jordan Reed) (++)
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Tennessee Titans | 64 | 40 | 62.5% | 237 | 1.4 | 24 | 37.5% | 93 | 0.6 | 17.3 |
| New England Patriots | 65 | 42 | 64.6% | 319 | 2.7 | 23 | 35.4% | 94 | 0.8 | 28.8 |
Look for the Titans to pass more frequently this week as they try to keep up with the Patriots. Despite an increase in pass attempts, the passing game will produce fewer yards than normal with a decreased chance for more than one touchdown pass. The running game will have a slight decrease in yardage with their typical opportunity for one touchdown run. The Titans have an even 50/50 split between run and pass plays inside the 10 yard line this season.
Look for the Patriots to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will produce their typically high level of passing yardage with a slightly increased chance for three touchdown passes. The running game will produce their typical rushing yards with a decreased chance for a rushing touchdown. The Patriots pass over 58% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Tom Brady and the Patriots passing game (Danny Amendola) (+)
- Patriots Defense (++)
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Carolina Panthers | 69 | 36 | 52.2% | 266 | 2.0 | 33 | 47.8% | 134 | 1.0 | 26.6 |
| New York Giants | 66 | 42 | 63.6% | 259 | 1.7 | 24 | 36.4% | 94 | 0.4 | 20.6 |
With Jonathan Stewart out, I expect the Panthers to pass the ball more often than usual this week. The passing game will produce more passing yards than usual with their typical opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will produce slightly fewer rushing yards than normal with a decreased chance for any more than one rushing score. The Panthers run the ball over 59% of the time in the red zone.
Look for the Giants to pass slightly more often than normal this week. The passing game will be less effective with a decrease in passing yards and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will produce their typical yardage with a low chance for a rushing score. The Giants pass over 64% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Cam Newton passing yardage (+)
- Panthers kicker (Graham Gano) (+)
Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Cleveland Browns | 64 | 41 | 64.1% | 241 | 1.1 | 23 | 35.9% | 77 | 0.4 | 15.4 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 65 | 35 | 53.8% | 285 | 2.2 | 30 | 46.2% | 132 | 0.7 | 26.7 |
The Browns project to execute their typical play distribution this week. The passing game will produce fewer passing yards than usual with a significantly decreased chance for any more than one touchdown pass. The running game will also have a decrease in rushing yards with their typical low opportunity for a rushing score. The Browns pass over 68% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
With Thomas Rawls out for the season and Marshawn Lynch still out, look for the Seahawks to pass more often than normal this week even in a game they are projected to win big. With the extra pass attempts the passing game will be very effective producing more passing yards and an increased chance for at least two touchdown passes. The running game will have a slight decrease in rushing yards and their chance for a rushing touchdown. The Seahawks run the ball over 53% of the time in the red zone, but I expect that to shift more to the pass again this week.
Increased Opportunities:
- Russell Wilson and the Seahawks passing game (Doug Baldwin) (++)
- Seahawks defense (+++)
Green Bay Packers @ Oakland Raiders
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Green Bay Packers | 67 | 38 | 56.7% | 252 | 1.9 | 29 | 43.3% | 130 | 0.7 | 24.3 |
| Oakland Raiders | 64 | 41 | 64.1% | 272 | 1.9 | 23 | 35.9% | 100 | 0.6 | 21.5 |
Look for the Packers to run a couple more plays than normal with their typical play distribution. The passing game will have a slight increase in passing yards, but a slightly decrease chance for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game will have a slight increase in rushing yards and their opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Packers pass the ball 66% of the time in the red zone.
The Raiders project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will produce their typical passing yardage with a decreased chance for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game will see a slight increase in rushing yards and their opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Raiders run the ball over 53% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Packers running game (Gut Call: James Starks is the more productive RB this week) (+)
- Latavius Murray (+)
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Miami Dolphins | 61 | 37 | 60.7% | 262 | 1.7 | 24 | 39.3% | 115 | 0.8 | 21.3 |
| San Diego Chargers | 70 | 46 | 65.7% | 335 | 2.4 | 24 | 34.3% | 93 | 0.3 | 22.3 |
Look for the Dolphins to have a slight shift to the running game this week. The increase in rushing attempts will result in an increase in rushing yardage and their likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The passing game will still be effective putting up their typical level of passing yards and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The Dolphins pass over 66% of the time in the red zone.
The Chargers project to execute their typical pass-heavy play distribution this week. The passing game will have an increase in passing yards and their opportunity for at least two touchdown passes. The running game will have a slight increase in rushing yards with their typical low chance for a rushing score. The Chargers pass almost 70% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Lamar Miller (++)
- Philip Rivers and the Chargers passing game (Malcom Floyd) (+++)
Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Denver Broncos | 66 | 41 | 62.1% | 271 | 1.6 | 25 | 37.9% | 95 | 0.6 | 19.3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 64 | 38 | 59.4% | 277 | 1.4 | 26 | 40.6% | 117 | 0.9 | 23.1 |
The Broncos project to run their normal play distribution this week. The passing game will have a slight increase in passing yards and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game should produce their typical rushing yardage with a chance for a rushing touchdown. The Broncos pass over 59% of the time in the red zone.
The Steelers will execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will be less effective than usual with a decrease in passing yards and their opportunity for more than one touchdown pass. The running game should produce their normal rushing yardage with an opportunity for one rushing touchdown. The Steelers run the ball over 54% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Brock Osweiler and the Broncos passing game (Demaryius Thomas) (++)
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 67 | 36 | 53.7% | 261 | 1.7 | 31 | 46.3% | 122 | 1.1 | 23.8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 62 | 36 | 58.1% | 242 | 1.1 | 26 | 41.9% | 118 | 0.6 | 16.7 |
Look for the Bengals to run more plays than usual with their typical run heavy play distribution with AJ McCarron at quarterback this week. The passing game will have a decrease in passing yards and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will have a slight increase in rushing yards and their opportunity for at least one touchdown run. The Bengals run over 53% of the time in the red zone.
The 49ers project to execute a few more plays than normal this week with their typical play distribution. The passing game should have an increase in passing yardage with their typical opportunity for one touchdown pass. The running game should have an increase in rushing yards with a slightly increased chance for a rushing touchdown. The 49ers pass over 61% of the time in the red zone.
Increase Opportunities:
- Bengals running game (I prefer Jeremy Hill this week) (++)
- Shaun Draughn (+)
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Arizona Cardinals | 69 | 38 | 55.1% | 282 | 2.3 | 31 | 44.9% | 131 | 0.7 | 26.7 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 65 | 38 | 58.5% | 264 | 1.5 | 27 | 41.5% | 117 | 0.8 | 21.5 |
The Cardinals are projected to run a few more plays than normal this week with their typical play distribution. The passing game will have a slight decrease in passing yards with their typical opportunity for at least two touchdown passes. The running game will have an increase in rushing yards but will have a decreased chance for a rushing touchdown. The Cardinals pass over 56% of the time in the red zone.
Look for the Eagles to pass the ball slightly more often this week. The increased pass attempts will result in a slight increase in passing yards and their chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will produce their typical rushing yardage and opportunity for one rushing touchdown. The Eagles run the ball over 58% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- David Johnson rushing yards (+)
- Sam Bradford and the Eagles passing game (Darren Sproles out of the backfield) (+)
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Detroit Lions | 65 | 44 | 67.7% | 306 | 2.6 | 21 | 32.3% | 90 | 0.4 | 24.2 |
| New Orleans Saints | 67 | 42 | 62.7% | 304 | 1.9 | 25 | 37.3% | 103 | 1.2 | 25.6 |
The Lions project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will be very effective with an increase in passing yards and significantly increased chance for more than two touchdown passes. The running game will produce their typical yardage and low opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Lions pass over 68% of the time in the red zone.
Look for the Saints to run the ball a couple more times than normal this week. The passing game will produce close to their typical level of passing yardage with their normal opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will have a slight increase in rushing yards and their likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The Saints run the ball over 51% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Matthew Stafford and the Lions passing game (Calvin Johnson and Eric Ebron) (+++)
- Tim Hightower (+)
Hopefully, this gives you some potential fantasy football sleepers or GPP picks for the week and gets you to think about some of your own favorite plays based on the data and analysis.
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