Troy Merritt’s last six tournaments: CUT, CUT, CUT, CUT, CUT, 1st (what.), and he hadn’t posted a round in the 60s in over a month. It was tough to see this win coming. Well, for me at least. There were a couple of guys in the Drive the Green that did see it coming (we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt), and they ended up chopping the top prize three ways.
Brianrivera, jonlawrance, bjollyag123 (all had the same lineup)
Rickie Fowler (24.4%) $11,700 – 130.5
Troy Merritt (1.1%) $5,300 – 123
Ryo Ishikawa (1.3%) $6,100 – 105.5
Justin Rose (32.1%) $12,200 – 100
Danny Lee (15.0%) $9,100 – 99
Whee Kim (1.8%) $5,500 – 84
That’s two weeks in a row where the winning roster featured the two highest priced golfers in the field. The stars and scrubs strategy is real. I will point out that both weeks, there was a tie at the top. When you spend nearly 50% of your cap on two guys, there are only so many guys out there left for you to choose even fewer that will actually hit. That said, who’s going to turn their nose up at $38,000? Spoiler alert: no one.
If some of you out there are anything like me, you know that sometimes it’s a struggle to click submit on a lineup that has someone like Merritt on it. Say you like him for whatever reason (best one I could come up with is he’s kind of okay from 175-200 yards), but you see those five missed cuts in a row and have second thoughts. You should take solace in the fact that those guys in the sub-$6k price range have a number of things going for them. First, and obviously, their price tag opens up so much cap flexibility. After you roster a guy like Merritt, you have roughly $9k/player to spend. You can easily surround that risk with five good/great/stable golfers. Next, if your cheap guy bombs, getting 5/6 through doesn’t crush your chances at cashing, especially given that your five golfers will, on average, be better than most of the other 5/6 lineups. After all, you did spend more per player on your top five than everyone else did. Finally, these bottom of the barrel bargain bin picks will almost always be low-owned. There’s a reason they’re cheap (bad form, bad stats, bad at golf, etc.), and that reason will keep most players away. If a guy is 1% owned, it’s not hard to understand that he doesn’t have to hit that often to return value on the pick. And when they do hit, like Merritt this past week, you will have put yourself in a position to actually win a large-field GPP. So, the next time you’re hesitant to spend your hard-earned cash on a lineup with a flier, just reason it out.
- Can he contend to win the tournament? What makes you think he can? (He doesn’t even have to be likely to contend, but you need to have some reason why you think it’s possible.)
- What will his ownership percentage be? (Golfers at the bottom of the price list are there for a reason. If a cheap guy is going to be 10%+ owned, it might be wise to look elsewhere.)
- What can you do with the cap space you saved by taking a flier? (If you like guys in the $7k range as much as the $8k-9k range, you probably don’t need to spend down.)
If you go through that process, and you’re reasonably comfortable using that cheap golfer, GO FOR IT. Know the pick will frequently fail; but when it hits, you’ll be sitting pretty. First prize in the Drive the Green is $100,000, 11th wins less than 1/100th of that amount at $750, and a 26th place finish gets you $200. Fortune favors the bold.
The optimal lineup this week spent $47,500 to rack up 667 points.
Rickie Fowler $11,700 – 130.5
Bill Haas $9,200 – 101.5
David Lingmerth $7,800 – 106.5
Carl Pettersson $7,400 – 100
Ryo Ishikawa $6,100 – 105.5
Troy Merritt $5,300 – 123
And if you were able to come up with that combo on your own, you deserve a spot in the PGA DFS Hall of Fame.
The expert consensus did a great job this week. It outperformed all of the individual experts, except for two. And one of those two who beat the consensus may or may not be me. We’ll get to that in a minute.
Expert Consensus
A+ – David Lingmerth
A+ – Rickie Fowler
A – Danny Lee
A – Hudson Swafford
A – Jason Bohn
A – Justin Thomas
A – Ollie Schniederjans
B – Justin Rose
C – Brendan Steele
C – Harris English
C – Jimmy Walker
C – Russell Knox
C – Shawn Stefani
C – Steven Bowditch
C – Tony Finau
C – Will Wilcox
D – Ricky Barnes
F – Andy Sullivan
F – Johnson Wagner
Nineteen picks and only two MCs (89.47% through). You’ve got some top-end finishers in Fowler, Lingmerth, Lee, Bohn, Thomas, and Rose and a great value pick in Swafford. Wasn’t hard to make money using this player pool.
It was a close call for top expert honors this week, but I’m going to have to give it to Seth Finkelstein of rotoballer.com over oreojenkins of dailyoverlay.com. (Rigged.) Finkelstein made eight selections on got all eight through the cut with half receiving an “A” grade. While he hit on Fowler, Lee, and Schniederjans, his two most impressive picks were Whee Kim and Tiger Woods. TIGER! Nice work, Seth.
Seth Finkelstein – rotoballer.com
A+ – Rickie Fowler
A – Danny Lee
A – Ollie Schniederjans
A – Whee Kim
B – Tiger Woods
C – Will Wilcox
D – Erik Compton
D – Ricky Barnes
This past week, I debuted my “Double Stuffed PGA Picks” here on dailyoverlay.com (full article). I’m planning on it being a weekly thing. I know it’s tough to put your opinion out there and on the record for people to tear down after the fact, so it’s only fair that I put my picks out there as well. Thankfully, I didn’t bomb.
oreojenkins – dailyoverlay.com
A+ – David Lingmerth
A – Colt Knost
A – Danny Lee
A – Hudson Swafford
A – Jason Bohn
A – Justin Thomas
A – Ollie Schniederjans
B – Justin Rose
C – Brendan Steele
C – Harris English
C – Russell Knox
C – Will Wilcox
F – Blayne Barber
F – Chad Collins
I made 14 picks of which half returned “A” value and only two missed the cut (Barber by a single stroke). Five of the 14 finished T-4 or better (Lingmerth, Lee, Bohn, Thomas, and Rose). Overall, I’m very happy with the results. If you read my article, I hope you were able to make some extra cash because of it.
You can find the rest of the expert results below.
Chris Durell – dailyfantasysportsrankings.com
A – Hudson Swafford
A – Jason Bohn
A – Justin Thomas
B – Andres Romero
B – Bryce Molder
B – Justin Rose
C – Harris English
C – Russell Knox
C – Shawn Stefani
D – Ricky Barnes
Daniel Dobish – dailyroto.com
A+ – David Lingmerth
A – Hudson Swafford
A – Ollie Schniederjans
C – Jimmy Walker
F – Chris Stroud
F – Johnson Wagner
Josh DeMaio – DraftKings Playbook
A+ – David Lingmerth
A – Justin Thomas
B – Justin Rose
B – Pat Perez
C – Shawn Stefani
C – Tony Finau
C – Will Wilcox
F – Andy Sullivan
F – Daniel Summerhays
F – John Senden
F – Johnson Wagner
Zachary Thompson – fansided.com
A+ – David Lingmerth
A+ – Rickie Fowler
A – Bill Haas
A – Charles Howell III
A – Danny Lee
A – Jason Bohn
A – Ollie Schniderjans
B – Adam Hadwin
B – James Hahn
B – Justin Rose
B – Pat Perez
C – Jimmy Walker
C – Shawn Stefani
C – Vijay Singh
C – Will Wilcox
D – Erik Compton
D – Michael Putnam
D – Ricky Barnes
F – Alex Prugh
F – Andy Sullivan
F – Brian Stuard
F – Camilo Villegas
F – Daniel Summerhays
F – Jhonattan Vegas
F – Johnson Wagner
F – Sam Saunders
Drew Phelps – fantasyalarm.com
A+ – Rickie Fowler
A – Ollie Schniederjans
B – Justin Rose
C – Brendan Steele
C – Jimmy Walker
C – Russell Knox
C – Shawn Stefani
C – Steven Bowditch
C – Tony Finau
C – Will Wilcox
F – Andy Sullivan
F – Cameron Percy
F – Johnson Wagner
F – Stewart Cink
Pat Mayo – rotoexperts.com
A+ – Rickie Fowler
A – Jason Bohn
A – Ollie Schniederjans
B – Bryce Molder
B – Justin Rose
C – Brendan Steele
C – Harris English
C – Jimmy Walker
C – Jonathan Byrd
C – Shawn Stefani
C – Steven Bowditch
C – Tony Finau
C – Will Wilcox
D – Ricky Barnes
D – William McGirt
F – Alex Prugh
F – Andy Sullivan
F – Jhonattan Vegas
F – Johnson Wagner
F – Scott Brown
F – Scott Langley
stlcardinals84 – rotogrinders.com (Daily Fantasy Foursome)
B – Justin Rose
C – Russell Knox
F – Cameron Percy
F – Johnson Wagner
Michael Riek – rotowire.com
A+ – David Lingmerth
A+ – Rickie Fowler
A – Bill Haas
A – Charles Howell III
A – Danny Lee
A – Hudson Swafford
A – Jason Bohn
A – Justin Thomas
B – Cameron Tringale
B – Jonas Blixt
B – Justin Rose
C – George McNeill
C – Harris English
C – Jimmy Walker
C – Tony Finau
D – Chesson Hadley
D – Ricky Barnes
F – Andy Sullivan
F – Camilo Villegas
F – Gary Woodland
F – Nick Watney
F – Scott Pickney
thefantasygolf.com
A+ – Rickie Fowler
A – Hudson Swafford
A – Jason Bohn
A – Ollie Schniederjans
B – Adam Hadwin
B – Jim Herman
B – Justin Rose
B – Vaughn Taylor
C – Jimmy Walker
C – Shawn Stefani
C – Steven Bowditch
F – Andres Gonzales
F – Andy Sullivan
F – Camilo Villegas
F – Chris Stroud
F – John Senden
F – Johnson Wagner
I’ll be back tomorrow with my picks for the WGC Bridgestone Invitational. I need to come up with something cool to say at the end of these articles. I’m open to suggestions.
