I am miffed a bit about last night’s Rangers/Yankees game.
Knowing the threat of severe weather in the area (including a PDS Tornado Watch). I’ve lived in Texas for 33 years and I’ve never heard of a PDS watch until Tuesday evening. PDS stands for Potential Dangerous Situation.
Anyway, storms were slated to erupt around 10-11 p.m., but with severe weather, as meteorologist and DFS weatherman Kevin Roth explained, this type of weather can flare up ahead of radar projections.
Even if the storms rolled in as expected, the severity warranted postponement. Schools closed early for crying out loud!
But officials still decided to play this game. Storms and tornado warnings in North Texas started flaring up around 9 p.m. central. Just because it wasn’t raining doesn’t mean safety of the fans isn’t important. Fans leaving the game around 10 or 11 after its completing might’ve had to deal with this severe weather threat. Yes, that might be on the fans that chose to go, but then why even play the game when you know attendance will be low.
Games were PPD this year because it was “too cold.” Low temps and low attendance are one thing, potential EF-3 and higher tornadoes are another.
We aren’t perfect and it wasn’t a smart decision, hopefully it didn’t affect anyone physically and all is well.
OK, soap box is dry, tome to move on!
But on to tonight where we have 12 games to consider, including games at Coors, Chase and the Ballpark in Arlington, three of the top 5 hitter’s parks in the majors.
We also have some studs on the mound, including Jake Arrieta (more on him later), Matt Harvey, Sonny Gray, and Adam Wainwright, though he’s far from the ace he used to be these days.
Last night I recommended 13 players using BvP stats, matchups, etc. I definitely got carried away and I don’t think it worked out very well for me, so I hope to do much better as we go on this week.
Remember to check out dailybaseballdata.com for a one-stop site for all BvP data you need! This is where I get my BvP data, very helpful.
Let’s get down to business, shall we?
Bryce Harper – OF – Nationals – vs. Jeremy Hellickson
BvP: 3-for-5, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 SB
Analysis: Harper might be the best hitter in baseball right now. He’s hitting .333 with 9 HRs and 24 RBIs thus far. It’s a torrid home run pace, but he might be able to sustain it. Hellickson is allowing a .357 wOBA versus lefties this season: that’s 10 hits in 8.1 innings and a HR. Harper destroys right handed pitching, especially pitchers who are fighting for 4th or 5th in the rotation on a very bad team: i.e. Hellickson with the Phillies.
Evan Longoria – 3B – Rays – vs. Chris Tillman
BvP: 17-for-51, 4 2B, 7 HR, 10 RBI, 5 BB, 1 SB
Analysis: In Texas we say “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” This country slang with twang applies here. We’re 1-for-1 with Longo vs. Tillman this season when the Rays’ hot corner man popped Tilly for a bomb earlier this month. Longo loves hitting in Tropicana Field and despite its hitter deficiencies, the Trop is tops for Longo. The average isn’t stellar, but with reverse-splits Tilly on the hill and 7 bombs against him, I’ll take this BvP action all day long.
Adam Jones – OF – Orioles vs. Matt Moore
BvP: 11-for-24, 1 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 1 BB, 2 SB
Analysis: Welcome Pacman! Psyche (still trying to bring that back)! Anyway, Adam Jones has always been one of my favorite plays against lefties, except for when he faces John Danks. Jones hasn’t really got it going this year yet, but when he does, the Orioles become one of the best hitting teams in baseball, and they already are! Matt Moore has pitched much better this year since coming back from injury, but that isn’t stopping me from having a boat load of Jones, who owns a .356 wOBA vs. lefties the past 3 seasons.
Mark Reynolds – 1B – Rockies – vs. Jonathon Niese
BvP: 8-for-15, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: The next three picks center around Coors, what a surprise right? First up is the Strikeout King Mark Reynolds. Luckily Jonathon Niese isn’t much of a whiffer more than he induces ground balls. Reynolds has been priced in Coors games like he is still the guy that can hit 30-40 homeruns a season when he obviously isn’t. The power is still there, but you are certainly running the risk of him going down swinging 4 times, no matter the venue. Tonight I’ll take my chance because if Reynolds can score 8 out of 15 hits against anyone, I would like to think he’s the equivalent to a low-profile golfer who makes the comment that he loves playing on “X” course. Coors Field helps this play significantly, but proceed with some caution.
Andrew McCutchen – OF and Gregory Polanco – OF – Pirates – vs. Jon Gray
McCutchen BvP: 2-for-4, 2 BB, 2 SB
Polanco BvP: 3-for-6, 1 RBI, 1 SB
Analysis: McCutchen paid off last night in a Coors game against JDLR and the Rockies. THREE homeruns! Tonight he gets a tougher cookie in youngster Jon Gray. It’s a shame Gray plays in Colorado because I think he could be a top-of-the-line starter elsewhere. He’s got a high 90s fastball with movement and some nasty offspeed pitches. But this is Coors and I will take Cutch and Polanco in a Pirates stack tonight. Polanco is strangely underowned most nights even though he is probably one of the more consistent Pirate bats, especially if he gets to hit atop the order. These guys have picked off some bases against Gray already, so that’s an added bonus should this duo get to add to its total.
Jake Arrieta – SP – Cubs – vs. Milwaukee Brewers
PvB: 25-for-89, 6 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 3 BB, 14 Ks
Analysis: Seeing Arrieta on the board always makes my baseball DFS pants go crazy, but I thought the numbers against the current Brewers’ roster was rather disappointing. Only 14 Ks in 89 ABs??? Weird. But if you dig a bit deeper, he’s only faced Chris Carter once, so a full game against CC should balloon Arrieta’s K total today. Arrieta’s peripherals are still stellar, dating back to last season. He’s pitching at Wrigley, where he’s the “best statistical pitcher” in the stadium’s history. In case you didn’t click the link, here’s the short version: He totes a 2.01 career ERA at Wrigley and is 14-0 since Aug. 1 of 2015, that’s 110 1/3 innings. He also has 23 consecutive quality starts. Sure, streaks come to an end, but not likely against the Brew Crews’ .316 wOBA vs. RH and 25.6% K rate.
Lastly, tonight’s BvP lineup is below. We started off very well this week thanks to Marte and McCutchen last night at Coors. Can history repeat itself?
Narrative: Gio Gonzalez was not a BvP pitcher for me, but he probably should’ve been. The Phillies are one of the worst teams in the majors against lefties. Everyone but Kendrick, Hundley and Gyorko are on my list. Hundley has a decent line against Niese, so hopefully he starts. Kendrick is dirt cheap against youngster Justin Nicolino, who is not a strikeout pitcher by the way. Gyorko has a couple of hits off of Corbin, so I’l take that action at Chase Field tonight. Last night i had to swap Montero out and stuck Plawecki, so note that for next week’s recap. Good luck all!