It’s here! It’s here! It’s here!!!!
Opening Day. FINALLY!
No more lousy March NBA roster construction. Instead we get day and night baseball all day, which should really be a national holiday.
I don’t get to partake in sitting at home on my couch and being a baseball zombie (I actually have a job I have to attend). Maybe I will get in some evening games at least, but I am just excited that baseball is finally back!
This will be my 5th season playing DFS baseball. It has been my most profitable sport over those years by far than any other DFS sport. And for me, I love DFS baseball because of the variance. While frustrating, I like that diving into stats and research can truly unlock things maybe others aren’t catching. I love that in baseball a big fat 0 from Mike Trout or Nolan Arenado won’t completely destroy my lineup. Strategy in baseball is completely different than any other DFS sport as is pricing.
Now what can be aggravating is picking the right pitchers, especially on sites like DraftKings where hits, walks, HBPs, and ERs can really nickel and dime your staff. FanDuel’s pitching scoring is far more favorable, in my opinion, because your only penalty is earned runs. I can’t play on FanDuel, so I must suffer the fates of my arms sometimes with DK scoring and same with the PlayDraft app.
If you have been a consistent follower of DailyOverlay, and if you haven’t, The Stack is a new format for me than in years past. I started with DO doing BvP content, then a Value Index and now we are to The Stack.
Here’s how the Stack will work – I will pick ‘X’ number of stacks with ‘X’ number of players that I like versus certain pitchers base on salary components, roster construction and matchup. Stacks will range from 2-5 players per team that I recommend.
What I will not do in the Stack is discuss anything relating to Coors Field, UNLESS there is some ridiculous pricing discrepancies going on or if the dog meat of starting pitching options are all to choose from. You should be aware of the effects of Coors Field by now and know that it is the ballpark where the most runs are scored almost every year and where home runs fly out like they are on jet packs when the weather gets warmer.
So I don’t need to really discuss Coors in making suggestions for hitters in that park, however I might offer some stacks that will be contrarian to Coors that we can take advantage of.
So for the next week and a half, The Stack will be free to all who choose. After next week, it will go to a premium format with a free preview. The Stack will run on Wednesdays and Fridays for sure, and based on the number of games on the Monday/Tuesday slates, it will run on one or the other each week. Today is an exception because hey, it’s Opening Freaking Day!
Today’s inaugural edition of The Stack will focus on the 9-game main slate that starts around 2 p.m. central time Thursday. Keep in mind that this article is written the night before lineups are released and we don’t know exactly how each team will order their lineup to start the season. Another thing to note that we actually only have 8 games for Thursday because CIncy and Washington has been postponed, which really made me sad because Washington was one of my favorite teams going into today. Now we must wait for Friday.
Before I get to my stack recommendations, it’s pretty clear who the popular teams are going to be right off the bat – Yankees and Astros, and really, I can’t argue against stacking these two teams even due to ownership inflation because both teams are loaded and facing lefties. But they are also the most expensive hitters on the slate AND we have a lot of stud pitchers to choose from, so it will be difficult to cram ALL of those stacks and the top pitchers.
Chris Sale at Tampa Bay is probably my No. 1 pitcher for tomorrow, so my stacks below are going to geared toward making sure I get him in my lineups. I could have some Verlander, Severino and Nola, too, but Sale is the guy I am eyeing. Garrett Richards, Danny Duffy, Jake Odorizzi, Chase Anderson and Julio Teheran (ugh, the devil) are the cheaper options I will be considering.
Alright, so let’s get down to business and may the force be with your lineups today.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
1. Tim Beckham – $3,800
2. Jonathan Schoop – $4,200
3. Manny Machado – $4,800
Total Price – $12,800
2017 Combined Home Runs – 77
Justification: This is a stack that should cover the No. 1, 2 and 3 hitters in this lineup. All have combined ISO’s of .179 or greater from the 2016 and 2017 seasons. They take on a Jake Odorizzi who has historically been a reverse splits pitcher (.336 wOBA, 1.82 HR/9, 37% Hard Contact past two seasons). All, believe it or not, are RH hitters. Imagine that, right? If you are a BvP person, Schoop and Machado have a combined 6 HRs between them against Odorizzi. As for Beckham, he is Odorizzi’s former teammate, and I always like that narrative.
NEW YORK YANKEES
1. Giancarlo Stanton – $5,300
2. Aaron Judge – $5,100
Total Price – $10,400
2017 Combined Home Runs – 115
Justification: Look, I am fitting these two guys in as much as possible. If you have been following my writing over the years, you know I always play Giancarlo Stanton against lefties, and this season will be no different, especially. Stanton gets such a huge boost to his production being a Yankee – playing at Yankee stadium, lineup with a DH and playing in environments like Rogers Centre and Fenway. As much as I love Stanton against lefties, I have come to love Aaron Judge for almost the same reasons, but against RH bats. Judge is still solid against lefties, but his production actually comes more against RH pitchers. This duo is going to be bonkers this year and I will be interested in seeing how often BOTH of them go off in one game. Good luck today, J.A. Happ.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
1. Ryan Braun – $4,300
2. Domingo Santana – $3,900
3. Lorenzo Cain – $4,200
Total Price – $12,600
2017 Combined Home Runs – 62
Justification – As far as 3-man stacks or more, without attacking a stud pitcher, this is one of the cheaper stacks of the slate. The Brewers are going to be an interesting team moving forward with some additions to the roster like Lorenzo Cain that boost contact potential and lower strikeout potential. Cain, Braun and Santana all have a wRC+ against lefties between 136 and 141 the past two seasons. While the park factor in San Diego kind of sucks, they are facing one of the worse pitchers on the slate in lefty Clayton Richard, who owns a .369 wOBA, a 5.04 ERA and a 35% hard contact rate against lefties in 2016 and 2017 combined.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
1. Mike Moustakas – $3,800
2. Lucas Duda – $3,800
Total Price – $7,600
2017 Combined Home Runs – 68
Justification – Here’s one of my favorite stacks of the slate. I want to think they will be lower owned considering the temperature, park factor, it’s the last game on the slate and the Royals won’t be very good. BUT they are facing James Shields and those of us who have been playing DFS at least one year know that James Shields is terrible, especially early in the season. Shields did finish strong, but he still gave up 3 to 4 runs per game down the stretch. Against lefties in 2016-17, Shields has yielded a .377 wOBA and 2.09 HR/9 rate. Both Duda and Moose are exceptional against RH pitching as they each have a wRC+ of 121 and 117, respectively and each have an ISO of .250 or greater.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
1. Welington Castillo – $3,400
2. Jose Abreu – $4,600
3. Avisail Garcia – $3,900
Total Price – $11,300
2017 Combined Home Runs – 71
Justification – While 1B has some big boppers on this slate, I think it’s a weak position. Jose Abreu has the power and 2-dong potential that can help you win a slate. This stack will certainly be low owned against Danny Duffy, who is regarded as a solid mid-tier pitcher. However, Duffy has struggled against RH pitching the past two years, giving up a 4.04 ERA, a .327 wOBA and a 35% hard contact rate. For what it’s worth, Abreu destroyed Kansas City last year – 29-for-74 with 4 HRs, 7 doubles and 14 RBIs in 18 games played. He also toasts LH pitching with a 149 wRC+. As for Garcia, he’s a strong power bat from the right side who touches up lefties (136 wRC+). Castillo is my favorite catcher of the slate. He’s cheap and powerful – .181 ISO with a 134 wRC+ against southpaws.
