NFL – Industry Expert Consensus – Week Six

Back at it for Week Six with only two teams on bye. Not a ton of value spots in our Consensus this week. Without counting, the list looks a bit smaller to me this week. Will the number of players dwindle as folks begin to differentiate themselves from the rest of the league? Don’t forget to sign up for our Premium Content so you can get all that we have to offer here at DailyOverlay.

As a reminder, the number in the parenthesis is the number of experts that chose that player so you have more context regarding the gaps between players and the tiers.

Quarterbacks

Highly Touted

• Tom Brady (8x) – 11% Cash / 8% GPP – Brady topped 400 yards and threw 3 TD passes in his first game action in 2016 last week.
• Drew Brees (8x) – 11% / 8% – He’s the 2nd highest priced QB on the board but will face a Panthers secondary that isn’t too scary minus Josh Norman. Coming off a bye week.
• Tyrod Taylor (8x) – 11% / 8% – A nice value option. Has thrown three TD passes in the last two weeks.
• Alex Smith (7x) – 6% / 7% – I really like Alex Smith in this spot. The Raiders have allowed the most DFS points to opposing QBs this year.
• Cam Newton (7x) – 6% / 7% – Cam faces off against a suspect Saints defense. Be sure to check if he’s playing prior to playing him.

Recommended

• Ben Roethlisberger (6x) – 5% / 6% – Big Ben has been on fire. Has topped 300 yards in each of the last two games and has 9 TD passes over that stretch.

Suggested

• Russell Wilson (4x) – 3% / 4% – I like Wilson this week too. The Falcons have allowed the 2nd most DFS points to QBs this year.
• Marcus Mariota (4x) – 3% / 4% – I’ve been saying for weeks that Mariota was going to go off and last week was the game. He’s in a good value spot this week and should produce 3x points at a minimum.
• Brian Hoyer (4x) – 3% / 4% – He threw for almost 400 yards and two touchdowns last week. Should continue to sling it all over the field as long as he’s playing.
• Blake Bortles (4x) – 3% / 4% – Bortles has been a bit of a letdown this year. Has not sniffed 300 yards since week 2.
• Andy Dalton (4x) – 3% / 4% – Dalton is coming off a dud though he salvaged some points in garbage time last week. They will likely be behind which means plenty of opportunities for him to sling it.

Running Backs

Highly Touted

• Le’Veon Bell (17x) – 62% / 32% – What more can you say about this guy. A bit of a down week rushing last Sunday but he caught 9 balls for 88 yards.
• LeSean McCoy (12x) – 44% / 22% – Shady should continue his fantastic season this Sunday. He had 150 yards on the ground last week though he’s only found paydirt on the ground in one game so far.
• Christine Michael (8x) – 24% / 14% – His price has dramatically increased since the beginning of the year. Found another element last game as he caught five balls out of the backfield.
• DeMarco Murray (8x) – 24% / 14% – Another dual threat guy. He gets a juicy matchup with the Browns this week.
• Giovani Bernard (8x) – 24% / 14% – With Jeremy Hill potentially out, Bernard should be the bell cow in the Cincy backfield.
• Lamar Miller (7x) – 19% / 13% – Indy has given up the 3rd most DFS points to running backs. Miller has yet to go off but it could be coming on Sunday.
• Jordan Howard (7x) – 19% / 13% – He’s positioned himself as a stud with back-to-back 100 yard efforts in his first two starts of his career.

Recommended

• Carlos Hyde (5x) – 5% / 7% – He has found the endzone at least once in each of the last three games.
• Ryan Mathews (5x) – 5% / 7% – I’ve never been a big fan of his; however, the Skins give up a ton of DFS points to RBs.

Suggested

• Theo Riddick (4x) – 4% / 6% – Riddick caught two TD passes last week but has not found the endzone on the ground this season. He’s somewhat the lone wolf in the backfield in Detroit.
• Jamaal Charles (3x) – 4% / 5% – The plan is to use him more this week. I’ll wait to see how much usage that is before playing him.

Wide Receivers

Highly Touted

• Cameron Meredity (11x) – 37% / 20% – He has emerged as a favorite target for Hoyer. The Bears are throwing the ball a lot, mostly because they are behind, which makes him a nice play.
• Jarvis Landry (10x) – 31% / 16% – Only had three targets last week. I expect him to get back in the double-digit target numbers this week.
• Antonio Brown (8x) – 16% / 12% – Highest prices receiver on the board. You get what you pay for though.
• Jeremy Maclin (7x) – 12% / 11% – I like Smith this week which means I also like Maclin. Raiders have given up the most DFS points to WRs this year.
• Allen Robinson (7x) – 12% / 11% – He has three TD cathes in the last two weeks.

Recommended

• TY Hilton (6x) – 9% / 10% – Luck throws it a lot and Hilton is the recipient of those passes. He is listed as questionable so be sure to check injury status.
• Kelvin Benjamin (6x) – 9% / 10% – Another guy that is listed as questionable. He will benefit if Cam plays.
• Will Fuller (6x) – 9% / 10% – Another questionable. He’s coming off a dud game where he only caught one ball for 4 yards.
• Michael Thomas (6x) – 9% / 10% – Thomas has scored in each of the last two games.
• Tavon Austin (6x) – 9% / 10% – He’s a nice value play this week. Saw 10 targets in last week’s game.
• Sammie Coates (5x) – 8% / 9% – Coates has come into his own this year. Two TD catches last week and still severely underpriced IMO.
• Doug Baldwin (5x) – 8% / 9% – Had a beast of a game in week 3 but crashed back to earth a bit last week. I like the Seahawks this week so he’s a solid play.

Suggested

• Marvin Jones, Jr. (3x) – 5% / 7% – Found the endzone last week. He has cooled off a bit from his first three weeks.
• Amari Cooper (3x) – 5% / 7% – Stephen and I were both all over him last week and he proved us correct. Chiefs have allowed the 5th most DFS points to WRs this year.
• Tyler Lockett (3x) – 5% / 7% – He’s only caught 8 balls this season. Comes at a small price so could be a solid value play.
• Brandon LaFell (3x) – 5% / 7% – Another value guy. Broke out in a big way last week as he caught 8 balls for 68 yards and a touchdown.
• Kamar Aiken (3x) – 5% / 7% – Aiken is minimum priced and rightfully so. Has caught six balls this year including a bit ol’ 0 last week.
• Julian Edelman (3x) – 5% / 7% – Had double-digit targets in Brady’s first game back. Should continue to see his value rise as Brady gets back in the groove.

Tight Ends

Highly Touted

• Jimmy Graham (10x) – 12% / 10% – The Falcons have given up the 2nd most DFS points to TEs this year and Graham seems to be back in a groove a bit.

Recommended

• Greg Olsen (6x) – 8% / 8% – Olsen was a beast last week with 181 yards. He may want Cam to sit out again as he’s found a connection with Anderson.
• Travis Kelce (6x) – 8% / 8% – Once again, I like the Chiefs passing game this week and Kelce is a big part of that.
• Delanie Walker (6x) – 8% / 8% – Walker scored again last week and opposing TEs have feasted on the Browns this year.
• Zach Ertz (5x) – 6% / 7% – Not near as much love for Ertz this week. He was the overwhelming favorite expert pick at TE last week and only produced three catches for 37 yards.
• Zach Miller (5x) – 6% / 7% – Another questionable tag on him. He has formed a connection with Hoyer though so he’s a solid start if he plays.

Suggested

• Dennis Pitta (4x) – 5% / 6% – Caught 7 balls last week on 8 targets. Has yet to find the endzone in 2016.
• Rob Gronkowski (4x) – 5% / 6% – He’s happy that Brady is back. Caught five balls for 109 yards last week.
• Coby Fleener (4x) – 5% / 6% – Fleener had one big week against the Falcons…but so did everyone else.
• Gary Barnidge (3x) – 4% / 5% – Listed as questionable. If McCown plays, Barnidge is not a bad start IMO.
• Jesse James (3x) – 4% / 5% – James has only caught 18 balls on the year but three of them have been for touchdowns. He is a nice redzone target for Big Ben.
• Charles Clay (3x) – 4% / 5% – Had a nice week last Sunday with five catches for 73 yards.

Defense/Special Teams

Highly Touted

• Buffalo Bills (8x) – 14% / 9% – The highest priced team on the board facing off with Kaepernick. I know it’s been several years but Kap has shown the ability to be a top-tier QB in the league.

Recommended

• Pittsburgh Steelers (5x) – 11% / 8% – Face turnover prone Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins. The Steelers defense has not been very productive in DFS format thus far.

Suggested

• Tennesse Titans (4x) – 6% / 7% – A good spot to buy in on the Titans this week against the Browns and whoever their starting QB will be,
• Chicago Bears (4x) – 6% / 7% – How do the Bears keep showing up every week? An opportunity to buy low as they are the 3rd lowest priced defense on DK this week.
• New England Patriots (3x) – 4% / 4% – The Cowboys made the Bengals offense look pedestrian a week ago. The Pats have the potential to do the same.
• Houston Texans (3x) – 4% / 4% – Andrew Luck is going to score some points; however, he’s also going to be under pressure. The Colts have not exactly killed opposing defensed in the DFS format this year.

Hope that you find the right combination to cash! Follow me on twitter @mbutlerok.