MLB Value Index – April 7

Let’s make one thing clear, the pitching on tonight’s MLB slate stinks.

Trying to decode pitching for tonight is like trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube on the first try.

This is what happens on Opening Week though. It will take a few weeks before we have the studs shuffled into the fold.

Tonight is a 10-game MLB slate. It’s almost a full load, but there are 5 games playing earlier in the day.

There’s a lot of pitching I want to target tonight, so coming up with one guy at each position was tougher than usual because there are so many guys I like. I used pricing as a tie breaker, though there isn’t a lot of pitching we really feel like we HAVE to pay for.

But I feel like we have a solid group of players that you will want to try and fit into your lineups tonight.

So let’s get to it.

Analysis:  The Rangers and A’s are on tap for one of the highest scoring games. AJ Griffin is a soft-tossing righty who has been getting drilled by lefties while with Texas. What I love about this play is Vogt once was Griffin’s catcher. This a scenario I love to target. Vogt knows Griffin’s tendencies as a pitcher and is the closest player on the A’s who might actually know what Fridfin is thinking in different counts. All in for me.

Analysis: I like Zack Wheeler today but I don’t know if I like his price nor do I know what his limitations are. CC Sabathia dominated this Rays team and he’s not Liriano, who owns a K/9 rate over nine against both lefties and righties over the past three years. This ball park favors Liriano and pitching as a whole. He just has to limit the walks.

Analysis: Dozier versus Derek Holland, a lefty who is one of my most hated pitchers in the majors. This is a ballpark boost for Dozier and the Twins, who have come out hot to start the season. Dozier owns an ISO over 200 and crushes lefty pitching.

Analysis: See, Dozier, Brian

Analysis: I do feel like I’m chasing Lindor’s ridiculous 2 HR game that sent the Rangers to 0-3, but this is a game in Arizona against Shelby Miller who gets drilled by lefties. The Indians and Diamondbacks are all in play in another game with a potential for a shootout.

Analysis: Mazara is a young power talent that has the potential to hit 30-plus homeruns. He’s come out hot to open the season and gets to face some A’s guy named Alcantara who allowed more than 40 percent hard contact to lefties in 5 starts last year. This is Rangers territory, and Globe Life is unforgiving to bad pitchers. 

Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Arizona Diamondbacks – $5,300

Analysis: Goldy against soft-tossing Josh Tomlin, a reverse-splits fly ball pitcher in Arizona’s ballpark? Sign me up!