My 3 Up pitcher recommendations had a rough day yesterday but my non-Rockies hitter stacks performed very well with the Nationals scoring 14 runs and the Reds running wild on the basepaths against the Pirates as I expected. Tuesday looks like another difficult night to find pitching you can trust with a lot of mid-rotation starters taking the hill. I’m not a wrestling guy, but I’m going with a “Triple H” smackdown with my pitcher recommendations to hopefully pin the competition. I’m also going back to the Rockies even though they came up short yesterday it would be a mistake to let that push you off their bats tonight.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Cole Hamels (FD-$9,500 / DK-$10,000)
I’ll start by saying that I don’t “love” Hamels tonight. He will likely have limited strikeout upside against a Angels team that struck out the least against lefties last season (16.3%). The game is also a near pick’em on the road against Tyler Skaggs. However, the reason to consider Hamels, especially on two-pitcher sites is his ability to pitch deep into the game (outs get points too) and the low chance that he gets lit up (only allowed more than 3 ER in 7 out of 32 starts last season). It’s not a ringing endorsement but navigating this slate might be more about finding the least objectionable alternative.
Value
JA Happ (FD-$8,500 / DK-$8,000)
Happ is actually my favorite pitcher on the slate. He has the best combination of strikeout upside, the ability to pitch deep into the game and a strong chance for a win. He is coming off the best season of his career and while his 4.18 xFIP show he may regress some this season, he will get a favorable matchup at home as a big favorite against the Brewers who stuck out 24.7% (3rd worst) against lefties last season and don’t hit as well on the road. Pencil Happ in for about seven innings with 6-7 strikeouts and a win while allowing just a couple of runs which is about the safest numbers you will get on this slate.
Darkhorse
Matt Harvey (FD-$8,700 / DK-$8,300)
The Dark Knight rides in as my Darkhorse pick tonight. Let me start by saying that I still do not trust Harvey and do not think he is back to the pitcher he was before Tommy John surgery. That said he pitched decently in his first outing against the Braves and gets a good matchup against the Phillies who finished in the bottom five in K%, wOBA, wRC+ against righties last season. Harvey is worth a GPP flier.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Rockies vs. Jered Weaver
If you mix a fly ball pitcher (Weaver) with Coors Field you should get some fireworks. Weaver allowed 1.87 HR/9 last year and give them up to both righties and lefties. Ignore yesterday’s dud by the Rockies and load up again.
Nolan Arenado (FD-$4,900 / DK-$5,200) – Arenado had a 18.2% HR/FB rate last season.
Charlie Blackmon (FD-$4,500 / DK-$5,100) – Blackmon puts up most of his power numbers against righties with a 25 out of 29 homers and a .275 ISO against them last season.
Carlos Gonzalez (FD-$4,000 / DK-$5,000) – Gonzalez had a .260 ISO and .409 wOBA at home versus righties last season.
Trevor Story (FD-$4,100 / DK-$4,900) – Story had a 47.5% fly ball rate last season and should be able to lift one out of the park against Weaver.
Blue Jays vs. Wily Peralta
Peralta pitched well in the second half of last season and in his first start this year but he will have a tough matchup on the road against the Blue Jays’ offense including a DH. Peralta’s HR/9 rate has increased in each year topping off at 1.34 last season.
Josh Donaldson (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,900) – Donaldson had a .341 ISO and .432 wOBA at home versus righties last season.
Jose Bautista (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,500) – Bautista is struggling to start the season (.136 average) but posted his best power numbers at home versus righties last season (.235 ISO).
Kendrys Morales (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,700) – Reasonable price for a hitter in the middle of the Jays lineup that has the highest Vegas implied run total outside of Coors Field.
Devon Travis (FD-$2,400 / DK-$3,800) – Travis is a cheap option batting leadoff at a tough position to fill.
Contrarian Stack
Mets vs. Clay Buchholz
Buchholz had the worst xFIP of his career last season (5.32) while allowing 1.36 HR/9 including 1.76 HR/9 to righties and a .342 wOBA to lefties.
Yoenis Cespedes (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,500) – Cespedes is off to a slow start (.154 average) but a matchup with a reverse-splits righty could be just what the doctor ordered.
Jay Bruce (FD-$3,400 / DK-$3,700) – Bruce already has four homers on the season including two last night. Keep riding him while he is hot.
Asdrubal Cabrera (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,800) – Cabrera hit 20 of his 23 homers off righties last season with a .208 ISO.
Jose Reyes (FD-$2,600 / DK-$4,100) – I just have a feeling that Reyes gets it going tonight.
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