Happy Monday everyone!
This is an especially great Monday for myself because it’s the last Monday of the school year, and by this time next week, I’ll be listening to Alice Cooper on repeat.
That is a humble brag, so if you have to work over the summer, I am sorry, but not sorry!
Anyway, we have a 9-game slate in the majors. There aren’t any major studs on the mount tonight though Zack Greinke has really shined this year. He’s probably a cash game lock for me for sure, and maybe a lock and load overall. But more on him later…
Anyway, today is a premium version of the Index, so you will get a couple of picks for free, but the rest you will need to subscribe.
And before we get to the picks, it looks like there’s a lot of games that could be affected by weather, and since I am not a meteorologist (but you should be following Kevin Roth on Twitter) I won’t be providing recommendations from those games and will focus on the good weather contests.
Games potentially impacted by weather (as of Sunday night) – Yankees at Royals, Rockies at Phillies, Pirates at Braves, Giants at Cubs and Twins at Orioles (though I think this one carries the least risk according to early forecasts).
So that leaves four games for me to make selections (and would likely change if I could write this in the morning on Monday), but this is what we will stick with – White Sox at Diamondbacks, Indians at Reds, Angels at Rays and Tigers at Astros.
Zack Cozart – SS – Cincinnati Reds – $4,400
Analysis: Tonight is going to be a Reds’ stacking kind of night and if you subscribe to the Index, you will get to see the other two Reds’ fellas I am targeting tonight. But first we start with Cozart, who is battling some a wrist injury and was supposed to get Sunday off and didn’t. Before you roster him, of course make sure he’s in the lineup. If he is, he’s a premier play at shortstop tonight against reverse-splits Josh Tomlin in the Great American Smallpark. Since 2016, RH bats have a .365 wOBA off of him along with a 2.01 HR/9 rate and a 32% hard contact rate. Cozart has a .422 wOBA, a .200+ ISO and a 30+ percent hard contact rate against RH pitching this season. He’s got the cherry on top, too – BvP.. Cozart is 7-for-11 with 2 doubles, 1 triple and a walk. All that’s missing from that BvP cycle is the home run.
Jason Kipnis – 2B – Cleveland Indians – $4,300
Analysis: Don’t look now but Kipnis is finally heating up. He’s got a 6-game hit streak and is now leading off for the Indians, who also are starting to put up runs. Cleveland gets the ballpark boost in Cincy and get to take on the Swan (unofficial Rangers’ nickname) Scott Feldman (you can’t see me, but I am rolling my eyes at the thought of him on the mound). Since 2016, lefty hitters have a .355 wOBA against the Swan, but only a 23% hard contact rate. Feldman is a ground-ball inducing son-of-a-gun, but we don’t always need home runs for hitters to produce, though Feldman has a 1.24 HR/9 rate against lefties.
