Tuesday has a full 15-game slate of MLB action that offers a lot of interesting decisions that will need to be made. We have games in great hitting environments in Colorado, Arizona and Texas. We also have a gaggle of high-priced stud pitching options to choose from which could make lineup construction interesting tonight.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Chris Archer (FD-$10,700 / DK-$10,600)
Yes, Max Scherzer is on this slate but I have Archer just a shade lower in my rankings and with the salary savings Archer offers, he comes in as my Ace option tonight. Archer has consistently performed better when pitching at home over the last few years, including a 3.15 ERA (2.35 xFIP) and 35.2% strikeout rate in six home starts this season. He will face a White Sox team that has the eight highest strikeout rate (23.2%) and ranks in the bottom three in wOBA and wRC+ versus righties this season. Archer is an excellent Cash and GPP option.
Value
Jake Arrieta (FD-$10,300 / DK-$9,000)
My value pick tonight came down to Arrieta and James Paxton. Who you go with depends on which site you play on. Paxton is a better value on FanDuel but on DraftKings, I prefer Arrieta at a similar salary. He has performed better at home since joining the Cubs and gets the benefit of cooler temps and the wind blowing in at Wrigley tonight. Arrieta’s xFIP is a full run lower than his current 4.60 ERA and his strikeout rate (26.5%) has returned to be close his 2014 and 2015 marks. Look for Arrieta to have luck start to head in his direction which could start tonight against the Marlins with the Cubs as a big favorite. He is worth consideration in both Cash and GPP lineups.
Darkhorse
Aaron Nola (FD-$7,500 / DK-$6,000)
I expect David Paulino to be the trendier cheap pitching option tonight. I do like Paulino, especially at his price on FanDuel ($6,700) but on DraftKings I’ll go with a low-owned Nola. Nola has induced a lot of soft contact this season with a 26% soft contact rate compared to a very low 24% hard contact rate this season. He also gets a lot of groundballs with a 56.3% rate. He may not get a ton of strikeouts but he does have a 21.2% strikeout rate this season and hold a 22.2% strikeout rate against Braves hitters in his career. Nola should be able to post a solid fantasy score at a cheap price to allow you to stack up some big bats in GPPs.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Indians vs. Antonio Senzatela
Senzatela has pitched surprisingly well at home this season with a 3.00 ERA. However, that ERA could be in for a regression with a 4.64 xFIP and .241 BABIP at home this season. With the stacked Indians lineup coming to town that regression could occur tonight.
Jose Ramirez (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,700) – Ramirez has two hits in back-to-back games and has a .390 wOBA and .232 ISO versus righties this season.
Carlos Santana (FD-$4,500 / DK-$4,700) – Santana has done most of his damage against right-handers this season with a .357 wOBA and .228 ISO.
Francisco Lindor (FD-$4,200 / DK-$5,100) – Lindor has fared better against lefties this season but still has a solid .330 wOBA and .235 ISO versus righties at a tough position to fill.
Michael Brantley (FD-$4,300 / DK-$4,900) – Brantley has five hits in his last three games and at least one hit in 17 of his last 18 games with a .343 average and .373 wOBA during that stretch.
Mets vs. Dillon Gee
The Mets are my favorite stack tonight even ahead of the teams playing at Coors Field and Chase Field. They will face former Mets pitcher Dillon Gee who allowed a .357 wOBA and 1.51 HR/9 to lefties last year. The Rangers bullpen is also a good one to pick on with a 4.76 ERA and 1.39 HR/9 allowed this season.
Michael Conforto (FD-$4,000 / DK-$5,100) – Conforto has a .427 wOBA and .354 ISO versus righties this season.
Jay Bruce (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,600) – Bruce continues to crush righties with a .387 wOBA and .303 ISO this year.
Lucas Duda (FD-$2,900 / DK-$4,900) – Duda has hit six homers over his last 11 games with a .396 wOBA versus righties this season.
Neil Walker (FD-$3,100 / DK-$4,700) – All seven of Walker’s home runs have come off righties this season.
Contrarian Stack
Brewers vs. Matt Cain
Cain has been brutal on the road this season with an 8.28 ERA while allowing a .393 wOBA and 1.80 HR/9. Both left and right-handed hitters can get to him. The Brewers should be fairly low owned with games in Colorado and Arizona on the slate.
Eric Thames (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,900) – Thames has been hitting better lately with two homers over his last five starts. He has a .416 wOBA and .310 ISO versus righties this season.
Domingo Santana (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,800) – Santana has hits in nine of his last 10 games with four homers during that stretch.
Hernan Perez (FD-$2,800 / DK-$4,100) – Perez has hits in six of his last seven games including a pair of doubles and a home run. He has a .371 wOBA and .270 ISO at home versus righties this season.
Keon Broxton (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,900) – Broxton is capable of filling the box score with either a home run or steal or both on any given night and has performed much better at home this season with a .353 wOBA.
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