Hello Monday!
Yea, you might grunt at the word Monday, but I must say I haven’t been this excited for a Monday in awhile. That’s because I am going on a little mini guys-only vacation today with some buddies, take in tonight’s Rangers game against the Blue Jays (first home series since the Rougie Odor punch), relax and hopefully fun is had by all.
So with that being said, I LIKELY won’t have a Value Index for Tuesday or Wednesday’s slates. However, I am not ruling out the possibility in case I get some time to research and do so. I’d say there’s a 90 percent chance I don’t, but has Lloyd Christmas once said “you’re saying there’s a chance?” Yes, there is, but it’s not good.
Anyway, we have 11 games on the slate today and we have Clayton Kershaw at home (insert deity praise here). There is some ugly weather expected in Baltimore today and since I will be at the Rangers game tonight, I will not include it (though I will be stacking the hell out of it since I am going) or the Baltimore game (and of course you play Kershaw). That leaves 9 games for me to provide a few recommendations.
Before the picks, here are the stacks I love tonight – Mariners, Nationals, Blue Jays and Rangers. I love Seattle so much, I couldn’t pick just one guy or even just two guys that I like against Anibal Sanchez. I think the Mariners kick his ass all over the place. Anyway…
Let’s get to it shall we?
Jon Lester – SP – Chicago Cubs – $10,500
Analysis: Guess who is dead last in team wOBA against lefties? That would be Lester’s opponent, the San Diego Padres (.287 wOBA with a 23% K rate). Now they have had some recent call ups come up and slash the ball around, but Lester is a ground ball guy with K upside that hurls well at home. Assuming the wind isn’t blowing out a lot in any direction, Lester is a great complement to Kershaw tonight in any format.
Kris Bryant – 3B – Chicago Cubs – $4,600
Analysis: Kris Bryant versus a lefty….you know the drill. In case you don’t, here’s Bryant’s numbers against southpaws: .495 wOBA, .356 ISO, 42% hard contact rate, 33.8% walk rate! Boom, roasted.
Eric Thames – 1B/OF – Milwaukee Brewers – $4,700
Analysis: Rules that have applied to today’s picks so far: Jon Lester at home, Kris Bryant against a lefty and then this one: Leftis against Gerrit Cole. This matchup is specifically awesome because it is in MIller Park. Cole already gets hammered by lefties and now we get a red hot Thames against him? Yes please.
Billy Hamilton – OF – Cincinnati Reds – $3,300
Analysis: The price has finally come down a ton on ol’ Billy. He’s started to hit again and we better hop back on before his price skyrockets again. I like his opposing pitcher tonight in Jake Odorizzi, but Hamilton just has to get on to do damage. I don’t care how it happens, this price is a steal (pun intended).
Daniel Murphy – 2B – Washington Nationals – $4,800
Analysis: As much as I love the Nats, there may not be another Nat I love more than Murphy. Edison Volquez, the Nats’ opposing pitcher tonight, has had his fun (scoreless inning streak, a no-hitter), but come on, it’s time. It’s time. It’s time to get lit up. The A’s already got to him since his no-no and the Nats are obviously better than the A’s, especially with Ryan Zimmerman back in the lineup. This also elevates Murphy, who also is 9-for-20 with 2 doubles, 3 RBIs, 3 walks and a steal in his career against Volquez. The Nats are on the road, so while he bats fifth, he also should get the extra AB here. He also will get even more ABs if the Nats score a lot of runs, which I expect.
Gregory Polanco – OF – Pittsburgh Pirates – $3,400
Analysis: I love the Seattle outfielders here, but we need a cheap one off to fit Kershaw and they are not cheap. Hamilton and my boy Polanco are cheap. Polanco also gets the lefty benefits of Miller Park today when he and the Pirates take on the aging, overrated wonder Matt Garza. Polanco hasn’t been performing up to expectations yet, with a home run in his last couple of games, perhaps the stroke is finally returning.
