Thursday brings a small five-game main slate where I’m not going to get too cute with my pitching options. The mid-priced and value options scare the hell out of me so in Cash games, I’m going straight to the top including for both of my pitchers on two-pitcher sites. There looks to be enough value hitting options to make it work out fine. Today’s “On the Hill” article will be FREE for your viewing pleasure.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Jameson Taillon (FD-$9,300 / DK-$11,100)
Taillon appears to be on the cusp of a breakout season for the 26-year-old right-hander. He sports a 0.89 ERA through his first three starts and is allowing just a 19.6% hard-hit rate and 15.7% line drive rate. Taillon’s 24.0% strikeout rate is also an improvement over his career mark. That strikeout rate could go up after facing the Phillies on Thursday who has the 3rd highest strikeout rate (26.9%) against righties this season. The Phillies are also in the bottom 10 in wOBA (.297) and wRC+ (86) against righties this season. Taillon is also my #1 option in Cash games on one-pitcher sites.
Value
Zack Greinke (FD-$8,900 / DK-$10,600)
Greinke is my “value” option on Thursday’s slate because, like I said in the intro, I’m not getting too cute with my pitching on this small slate. Greinke pitched better at home last season even before the humidor came into play and had his best outing of the season so far at home with nine strikeouts and one run allowed over 5+ innings against the Rockies. He’ll face the Giants who have struck out 24.9% (9th highest) against righties this season and is a big home favorite.
Darkhorse
Jake Arrieta (FD-$8,300 / DK-$7,600)
I’m forcing myself to give a Darkhorse option even though I don’t have a strong conviction about any other pitcher on the slate. So, I’ll give Arrieta a shot in a GPP lineup. Arrieta is still working his way up to full speed after signing late into Spring with a 3.38 ERA and just a 13.3% strikeout rate through his first two starts. He’ll get the benefit of 40-degree weather and the wind blowing in to try to silence the cross-state rival Pirates who he has a solid 22.4% strikeout rate against over the last two seasons. The Vegas line is surprisingly close in this matchup so Arrieta might deserve more credit and ownership then I think he will.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Brewers vs. Dillon Peters
The Brewers’ bats are very reasonably priced despite being the team with the highest Vegas implied run total on the slate. They will face lefty Dillon Peters who has allowed a lot of long balls to righties so far in his brief career especially on the road (3.48 HR/9). Meanwhile, lefties have still fared well themselves with a .419 wOBA in 48 plate appearances. The Brewers saw Peters once before and went 8-for-14 against him. Watch the lineup closely and feel free to pivot to Jesus Aguilar or Hernan Perez if they are in the lineup instead of one of the players listed.
Lorenzo Cain (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,000) – Cain has at least one hit in six of his last seven games and posted a .349 wOBA and .200 ISO against lefties last season.
Domingo Santana (FD-$2,700 / DK-$3,000) – Santana is ice cold right now but did have a .377 wOBA and .218 ISO against lefties last season and is very cheap.
Travis Shaw (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,300) – Shaw had a respectable .326 wOBA and .214 ISO against lefties last season and is 2-for-3 off Peters in his career.
Ryan Braun (FD-$3,100 / DK-$4,500) – Make sure Braun is in the lineup before including him in your Brewers’ stack. If he is not, then consider Jesus Aguilar or Hernan Perez who would likely start in his place.
Mets vs. Matt Wisler
Matt Wisler will make his first start of the season and only his second start since 2016 when he toes the rubber against the Mets on Thursday. Wisler has been hammered by lefties over his career, allowing a .378 wOBA and 1.57 HR/9. The Mets have the left-handed bats to take advantage.
Michael Conforto (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,800) – Conforto has a career .379 wOBA and .257 ISO against righties.
Asdrubal Cabrera (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,000) – Cabrera has six hits over his last three games including three extra-base knocks.
Yoenis Cespedes (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,200) – Cespedes has four hits over his last two games including a home run and posted a .391 wOBA and .303 ISO on the road versus righties last season.
Jay Bruce (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,900) – Bruce has been cold to start the season but his one homer came on the road against a righty and he had a .373 wOBA and .291 ISO on the road versus righties last season.
Contrarian Stack
Marlins vs. Chase Anderson
I expect Chase Anderson to be highly owned as a big home favorite with very few pitching options to choose from. So, I’m going the other way and stacking up some cheap Marlins’ bats instead. Anderson has been roughed up a little bit in his two home starts this season allowing six runs (4 HRs) in 10 innings.
Justin Bour (FD-$3,500 / DK-$3,000) – Bour is 4-for-8 with a double and home run off Anderson and posted a .384 wOBA and .252 ISO against right-handed pitchers last season.
Derek Dietrich (FD-$2,700 / DK-$2,900) – Dietrich has homered in five career at-bats against Anderson and put up a .344 wOBA on the road against righties last season.
JT Realmuto (FD-$2,700 / DK-$3,500) – Realmuto homered in his first game back, is 2-for-3 off Anderson in his career and had a .403 wOBA and .240 ISO on the road versus righties last season.
Starlin Castro (FD-$3,100 / DK-$3,600) – Castro had a .332 wOBA against righties last season and is batting .316 over his last five games.
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