Welcome into the hump day edition of the Value Index. I hope the big 15-gamer on Tuesday was profitable for you. But we move on quickly today for Wednesday’s main evening slate.
Below are the worst pitchers on the slate based on their xFIPs against lefties and righties. Good luck using that data for roster construction today. There’s also my top stacks for the slate below this information and then today’s recommendations.
xFIP vs. Lefties
Daniel Norris – 5.83
Zach Eflin – 5.52
Miles Mikolas – 5.13
David Hess – 4.83
Merrill Kelly – 4.76
Danny Duffy – 4.63
xFIP vs. Righties
Edwin Jackson – 7.76
David Hess – 6.17
Tommy Milone – 5.85
Mitch Keller – 5.69
Danny Duffy – 5.23
Shaun Anderson – 4.99
Merrill Kelly – 4.67
Top Stacks (in no particular order)
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
6. Philadelphia Phillies
PITCHERS
Joey Lucchesi – at San Francisco Giants – $7,900
Analysis: Welcome to one of the best value plays on the board. Lucchesi draws the San Francisco Giants tonight, a team that is 29th in wOBA versus lefties and strikes out 23% of the time and only has a .130 ISO. The game also favors pitchers due to the venue in San Francisco. The Giants will likely have a few lefties they will have to trot out there, and Lucchesi strikes them out at a 1o.57 K/9. Against righties, Lucchesi owns an 8.65 K/9. Lucchesi’s price is in the perfect spot to get all the upside and allow for some big pop in your lineups.
HITTERS
Marwin Gonzalez – 3B – Minnesota Twins – $2,900
Analysis: The Twins are probably the number one stack on the slate today, for me. They are 3rd in overall wOBA against lefties and have been killed southpaws all season long. Marwin is one of those guys that can pop lefties. The Twins face journeyman Tommy Milone, who owns a paltry 5.85 xFIP with a 41% hard contact rate, a 51% fly ball rate and a 1.54 HR/9. Marwin, a switch-hitter, owns lefties in his career.
