NFL Hot Sheet – Week 4 – 2022

NFL DFS Hot Sheet – Week 4

The theme for this weekend when it is all said and done will be Redemption Week. There are numerous players who haven’t lived up to the preseason hype and expectations that I think will make a statement this weekend that you shouldn’t write them off just yet. Let’s see which players will total redeem themselves this week.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com. Rankings for receivers by position (WR/TE) are based on grades from ProFootballFocus (PFF).

Week 4 Hot Sheet

Top Plays

QB

• Josh Allen (BUF) – Allen may be the most expensive QB on the slate, but he is still a lock in Cash games. He is playing in the game with the highest Vegas total on the slate and gets a very favorable matchup against the Ravens who have allowed 366 passing yards (32nd) and 2.3 TD passes (25th) per game this season.
• Justin Herbert (LAC) – The Chargers offense didn’t look like itself last week with Herbert nursing an injury. With another week to heal and likely lower ownership, Herbert makes for an interesting GPP option as a small road favorite against the Texans in a game with a 45-point Vegas total.
• Russell Wilson (DEN) – It feels like a redemption spot for Wilson who has struggled to find his way in Denver so far. He has a close Vegas line and one of the higher totals on the slate against a Raiders defense that has allowed 273 passing yards (25th) and 1.7 TD passes (16th) per game while ranking 23rd DVOA against the pass.

RB

• Jonathan Taylor (IND) – Taylor is my redemption pick at running back this week. While he hasn’t been bad, he also hasn’t lived up to the first overall pick. Well, this is the week for him to recapture his spot on top in a home game against the Titans. The Titans have allowed 120 rushing yards (28th) per game on 6.1 YPC (32nd) to running backs this season.
• Saquon Barkley (NYG) – Barkley has piled up the production this season and will continue to shine this week at home against the Bears. The Bears’ run defense ranks 22nd DVOA and has allowed 115 rushing yards (26th) and 0.7 TDs (17th) per game on 4.86 YPC (22nd).
• Jamaal Williams (DET) – Williams has been producing while sharing time with D’Andre Swift. Now with Swift out, Williams should get even more work and draws a favorable matchup and game environment as a home favorite against the Seahawks. The Seahawks have allowed 131 rushing yards (31st) per game on 5.12 YPC (25th) and rank 21st DVOA against the run.
• Khalil Herbert (CHI) – Another “fill-in” to roster this week is Herbert who will be taking the place of injured David Montgomery. Herbert just put up 169 total yards and two scores last week and will continue to see the bulk of the touches against the Giants. The Giants rank 28th DVOA against the run and have given up 126 rushing yards (30th) per game on 5.57 YPC (31st) to running backs.
• Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) – Stevenson saw an increased workload last week with a season-high 16 touches while putting up 101 total yards and a score. He’ll face a Packers’ run defense that ranks dead last in DVOA and has allowed 5.44 YPC (29th). Stevenson should also get the targets if the Patriots fall behind as the Vegas line suggests.

WR

• Stefon Diggs (BUF) – Diggs is the primary high-priced option on this slate in a game environment with a high Vegas total and a great matchup against the suspect Ravens secondary. The Ravens have allowed 18.7 receptions (31st) for 281 yards (32nd) and 1.7 TDs (25th) per game to wide receivers this season. Also, consider adding Gabe Davis for a Bills double-stack in GPPs.
• Marquise Brown (ARI) – Brown saw a massive 17 targets last week as the Cardinals start to let Kyler Murray air it out. He’ll face a Panthers defense that has allowed 15.7 receptions (29th) for 182 yards (25th) per game to wide receivers. Brown will continue to absorb double-digit targets.
• Drake London (ATL) – The rookie has scored in two straight and has at least 54 yards in each of his first three games. He gets a solid matchup on the outside against the Browns secondary that has allowed 186 yards (26th) and 1.3 TDs (22nd) per game to wide receivers this season.
• Tyler Lockett (SEA) – Lockett has nine catches on 11 targets in back-to-back games making him a great option in PPR sites. The Seahawks face the Lions in a game with one of the highest Vegas totals on the slate and draws a great individual matchup against the Lions’ secondary.
• DJ Moore (CAR) – Moore is your “Redemption Week” wideout. He has just six targets in each of the first three weeks while posting no more than three catches for 43 yards. Look for the volume and production to spike this week against the Cardinals. Moore has a good individual matchup against the Cardinals secondary.
• Romeo Doubs (GB) – Doubs had his best week of the season last week with eight catches and a score. He will continue to ascend in the pecking order in the Packers receiving corps as Aaron Rodgers to-go guy with Sammy Watkins out and a favorable individual matchup against the Patriots’ secondary.
• Mack Hollins (LV) – I don’t love the matchup against the Broncos’ secondary but the price tag, target volume, and upside makes him worth consideration.

TE

• Mark Andrews (BAL) – Double-digit targets in each of the last two weeks and three touchdowns make Andrews the high upside option at tight on the slate with no Travis Kelce. The individual matchup doesn’t look great on paper for Andrews, but he is playing in the game with the highest Vegas total on the slate as the Ravens could be playing catchup against the Bills.
• Darren Waller (LV) – The best way for the Raiders to attack the Broncos through the air is utilizing Waller. The Broncos have allowed 6.0 receptions (26th) for 55 yards (22nd) and 0.7 TDs (25th) per game to tight ends this season.
• Gerald Everett (LAC) – Everett has 16 targets over the last two weeks with Keenan Allen out. If Allen misses another game, then Everett should be heavily involved against the Texans with a strong individual matchup.

D/ST

• Cowboys (DAL)
• Broncos (DEN)
• Bears (CHI)

Top Bets

• Lions -4
• Jaguars +6.5
• Titans/Colts U43
• Bills/Ravens U51

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