Entries by Brad Richter

Nascar – 2019 South Point 400 – Industry Expert Consensus

The Nascar playoff chase begins in Las Vegas for the South Point 400 on Sunday. See who the Nascar experts recommend to fill out your DFS lineups.

The Weighted Consensus for the Nascar uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that have a Rank Score over 8.0.

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Here is the Nascar Weighted Consensus list for the South Point 400:

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NFL – Handicapper Consensus Picks – Week 2 – 2019

Welcome to the Week 2 NFL Handicapper Consensus! In Week 1, our Consensus best bets finished with a 5-7 record, however, picks with a Net Consensus of 5+ had a 4-1 mark. Let’s see if the handicappers can perform better overall now that the season is underway.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of Handicapper Picks against the spread and totals where we pay for the premium picks and take the time and effort to accumulate them, so you don’t have to. This week we pulled picks from 13 expert sites and 43 different handicappers to get our consensus betting selections.  Picks make the Consensus list if they receive at least three more selection on one side than the other side. We will also be grading handicappers throughout the season.

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Free Play of the Week: Saints/Rams Over 52

Here is the NFL Handicapper Consensus list for Week 2…

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NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 2

Now that we have one week of data in the books, we’ll roll out our full-blown Weighted Consensus Rankings this week which also includes projected ownership percentages for Cash games and GPPs. The NFL DFS analysts sure seem to agree who the top plays are at each position this week which could lead to some very high ownership percentages, especially at RB and WR.

Each position has been broken into “Cash” and “GPP” plays based on natural breaks in the consensus rankings. This doesn’t mean to only consider players in each block for each contest type, but it should give you a good idea of where they might be a more powerful option.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NFL DFS expert’s recommendations that consider each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that have a Rank Score of at least 8.0.

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Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 2…

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NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 2 – 2019

Now that Week 1 is in the books we have a little bit of fresh data to explore when analyzing the matchups heading into Week 2. That doesn’t always make things easier, especially when the first game of this season contradicts how a team performed last season. Finding the new truth from the old reality can be challenging the first few weeks of the year, but I’ll give it a go with the Week 2 game-by-game breakdown including predictions for every touchdown, Top DFS plays, and a few Best Bets.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

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NFL – Week 2 Showdown (Thursday) – TB v CAR

My Showdown experiment has had mixed results through the first weekend with just a 43% win rate in head-to-heads but min-cashing (2x) in two of the three single-entry GPPs. As such, these Showdown articles will continue to be free for your viewing pleasure to use or fad as you wish. Week 2 starts off on […]

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PGA – 2019 Military Tribute at Greenbrier – Expert Consensus

The PGA Tour kicks off the 2019-20 season at Greenbrier with the Military Tribute event. With the new season, we will reset our grading and add a few more DFS analysis into the mix. This article will just show the count of experts that selected each golfer as we wait a week or two before publishing the first Weighted Consensus of the new season. All golfers that were selected by at least three experts have been included along with projected ownership for Cash and GPPs based on last seasons numbers.

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Here is the PGA Consensus list for the Military Tribute at Greenbrier:

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NFL – DFS Expert Grading and Recap – Week 1

It was an exciting first week of the 2019 NFL season with some upsets and surprise superstars. Rotowire navigated the Sunday slate the best, followed by DailyRoto and RotoGrinders – Lineup Builder. While DFSKarma – GPP Breakdown provides some strong value plays. We’ll see if these analysts can duplicate their strong Week 1 efforts all […]

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NFL – Handicapper Results and Recap – Week 1

The NFL regular season kicked off with our second season of tracking NFL Handicappers. Jason Logan (Covers) and Larry Hartstein (Sportsline) led the way in the first week as both registered perfect 3-0 records against the spread. Another pair of Sportsline handicappers, Hank Goldberg (4-1) and Mike Tierney (5-2) also had strong showings. Our Consensus […]

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CFB – Power 5 – Week 3 (Early)

If you have been a follower/subscriber of DailyOverlay.com for some time, and you follow my work, you know I try to dabble in a lot of different sports.

And I started splitting football duties this past week between college football and Week 1 of the NFL. But I feel like that spreads me super thin with the time I have available at home these days with one kid and another on the way shortly.

I want to make sure I am putting out quality and putting that effort into making something really good instead of making two things just OK.

So what I am trying to say is that I will be concentrating solely on college football from here on out for us, and Matt, Brad and Greg, the masters of the universe, will handle all of our NFL content.

That means an early and late slate write up for the Power Five each week but also means I have to put what little money I have, where my mouth is.

So let’s get on with today’s Power Five for the early slate, which features 12 games of college football action. Remember, the free version gets you access to one pick while subscribers or free trial members get access to the rest of the product.

Good luck!

Jerry Jeudy – WR – Alabama – $8,000

Analysis: The Judge cracks the Power 5 for the first time this season. And if I have to explain the Judge Jeudy reference, well, maybe you are a little sheltered. But Jeudy and this Alabama offense get their first taste of real action (loosely speaking) as they travel to South Carolina as 25-point favorites. The Gamecocks also have had a taste of real action, losing to Carolina rival UNC in their opener. They will be without their starting quarterback, to boot. So ‘Bama has faced Bucknell Junior College and Tribal Warrior State University (these are made up schools by the way) and in each of those games, which have been blowouts, Bama’s first-team offense has thrown 31 and 24 passes. That’s a lot for a team that plays about a half of football every time out. So I think that’s the floor here with upside for more should this game be close in the second half for any reason. What does that mean for Jeudy? Far more usage and volume for one of, if not THE, best receiver in the country. In those two blowouts, he has 18 catches for 240 yards and 4 TDs. His price has come down from $8,300 in Week 1 to $8,000. Jeudy is going to be the first person in my early slate lineups today.

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Nascar – Expert Recap and Grading – Big Machine Vodka 400

The last race before the Nascar playoffs saw NumberFire produce a convincing win among DFS analysts which also moved them into 1st place on the Overall Leaderboard. FullTimeFantasy and DraftKings Playbook rounded out the Top 3 for the week. Meanwhile, there is a tight four-way race in the season-to-date standings with DailyFantasySportsRankings, DFSKarma, and DFSArmy […]

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NFL – Week 1 Showdown (Monday) – HOU v NO / DEN v OAK

My first foray into the Showdown slate on Thursday went well as I cashed in all Double-Ups and won 71.4% of my head-to-heads. After skipping Sunday night, I back with a doubleheader of Showdown matchup on Monday night with the Texans and Saints (fun) followed by the Broncos and Raiders (yawn). Remember, the focus of […]

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Nascar – 2019 Big Machine Vodka 400 – Industry Expert Consensus

Nascar drivers and DFS expert battle for position in the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard. There are a couple of value drivers near the top of the Weighted Consensus Rankings, so sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to get this article along with all of our NFL content.

The Weighted Consensus for the Nascar uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that have a Rank Score over 8.0.

Here is the Nascar Weighted Consensus list for the Big Machine Vodka 400:

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