Entries by Brad Richter

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 14

Another full 16-game week as we head into the final four weeks of the season. There are plenty of intriguing matchups this week including a variety of divisional clashes. It looks like the week of the cheap RB from a DFS perspective as there are numerous options that have opened up already this week. I’m also putting out a hopefully lucky 13 bets to help heal my under 50% success rate so far this season.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D Vegas
Jacksonville Jaguars 39 40 72 61 60 24 48 37.5
Tennessee Titans 40 30 29 29 34 58 48 -5

Jaguars

Injuries Notes

  • Leonard Fournette returns from one-game suspension
  • DJ Chark is out

Running Game (22nd): Fournette will resume as the workhorse back for the Jaguars after coming off his one-game suspension. The week off should make him fresh for the Thursday night matchup against the Titans who have allowed 4.86 YPC (23rd) and 0.8 rushing TDs (19th) per game over the last five weeks to RBs. Meanwhile, Fournette has averaged 23 carries for 81 yards while scoring four rushing TDs over his last three games.

Passing Game (20th): Cody Kessler will remain under center for the Jaguars but only threw for 150 yards last week without a TD. He’ll face a Titans pass defense that has good raw numbers on the year allowing just 234 passing yards (4th) and 1.33 TD passes (3rd) per game despite a 23rd DVOA ranking. Some regression may be coming for the Titans pass defense, but it won’t be this week.

Top Targets: Dede Westbrook led the Jaguars WRs in targets last week and the Titans rank 32nd DVOA against #1 WRs this season. Meanwhile, Fournette has 10 targets over his last three games and T.J. Yeldon saw a team-high eight targets last week, so both of them could get some check downs from Kessler.

TD Predictions:

  • Leonard Fournette rushing
  • Cody Kessler to Dede Westbrook

Titans

Injuries Notes

  • None

Running Game (30th): The Jaguars run defense ranks 7th DVOA and has allowed just 3.54 YPC (6th) and no rushing TDs (1st) to RBs over the last five weeks. With a split backfield between Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry, neither is a strong play on the ground.

Passing Game (26th): Marcus Mariota has thrown for over 280 yards with 2 TD passes in each of the last two games but faces a good Jaguars pass defense on Thursday that just shutout Andrew Luck and ranks 6th DVOA. They have also allowed the fewest TD passes this season.

Top Targets: Mariota will need to leverage his TEs to help move the ball this week as the Jaguars have allowed 6.25 receptions (27th) for 66 yards (25th) and 1.0 TDs (30th) to TEs over the last five weeks. Their 11th DVOA ranking to the position is also their worst rank of all the receiving options. So, look for the combo of Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser to both be involved while WR Corey Davis competes with Jalen Ramsey.

TD Predictions:

  • Marcus Mariota rushing

Hot Picks:

  • Leonard Fournette (*)
  • Dede Westbrook (*)
  • Jaguars D/ST (*)
  • Jonnu Smith (*)
  • Anthony Firkser (*)
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NFL – Handicapper Results and Recap – Week 13

Week 13 was a down week overall for the NFL Handicappers who combined for a losing record for the week. Jason Logan (Covers) was the top handicapper of the week with a 3-0 record. Despite the lack of success from the handicappers overall, our Consensus picks managed to squeak out a winning week with a […]

NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – December 5th

Wednesday night’s 10-game NBA slate is setting up nicely for some high DFS scores with seven of the 10 games coming in with a Vegas total over 220 points and a bunch of value options to choose from on tonight’s Weighted Consensus list.

The Weighted Consensus for the NBA uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 10.0.

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Here is the NBA Weighted Consensus list for December 5:

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NBA – Hot Sheet – December 5

Wednesday features a big 10-game NBA slate. While there are a ton of options to choose from, it looks like an extreme “Stars & Scars” night with a bunch of cheap options with expected increase in playing time to pair along with a few high-priced studs.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

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Hot Sheet for December 5th

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NFL – DFS Expert Grading and Recap – Week 13

We are starting to come down the home stretch with just four weeks of the NFL season remaining. The top 5 in the overall standing are starting to separate from the field with FantasyTeamAdvice continuing to lead the way but can they hold onto the top spot? For Week 13, DailyFantasyNerd top home top honors […]

NBA – Hot Sheet – December 4

There is just a small five-game NBA slate on Tuesday night. The slate is also void of high-priced studs and dirt-cheap value options which has me constructing a very balanced lineup. As I often like to do on a short slate, I try to identify my top play on each team to spread out my exposure and maximize my upside. So, there are seven of the 10 teams represented in my Droppin’ Dimes recommendations on Tuesday night.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

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Hot Sheet for December 4th

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NBA – Hot Sheet – December 3

We have a solid seven-game slate of NBA action lined up for Monday night. The Vegas totals run high on the slate with five of the seven games coming in over 220 points including two over 230 points. While I have a few recommendations in the games with the two highest projected totals, there are still plenty of other solid options available on the slate at a variety of price points.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

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Hot Sheet for December 3rd

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NFL – Handicapper Consensus Picks – Week 13

Welcome to the Week 13 NFL Handicapper Consensus!  There is a total of eight plays on this weekend’s list including a nice mix of favorites and underdogs. Our Handicapper Consensus plays are 24-13 (64.9%) ATS over the last seven weeks.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of Handicapper Picks against the spread and totals where we pay for the premium picks and take the time and effort to accumulate them, so you don’t have to. This week we pulled picks from XX expert sites and XX different handicappers to get our consensus betting selections.  Picks make the Consensus list if they receive at least three more selection on one side than the other side. We will also be grading handicappers throughout the season.

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Here is the NFL Handicapper Consensus list for Week 13…

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NFL – DFS Weighted Consensus – Week 13

The Week 13 NFL main slate on Sunday consists of 13-games now that the bye weeks have come and gone. The slate received a jolt on Friday with the Kareem Hunt news which will make Spencer Ware even more of a chalk option than the Weighted Consensus rankings suggest since some expert’s picks were released before the news broke.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NFL DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that have a Rank Score of at least 10.

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Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 13…

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NBA – Hot Sheet – November 30

It feels like a “Stars and Scars” night for NBA DFS lineup construction on the big 11-game Friday night slate. There is a variety of cheap options walking into bigger minutes than their salary precludes due to players being ruled out due to injury or rest or released (aka: “the Scars”). Then, of course, there are plenty of high-priced studs on the big slate that have high floors and plenty of upside to roster (aka: “the Stars”). Let’s get after it!

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

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Hot Sheet for November 30th

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NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 13

Sorry for getting the NFL Hot Sheet out a little later than usual for Week 13. However, with us past all the byes and my attempt to change up the format a little bit it has taken me longer to write than normal this week. The format changes are in an attempt to make it a little more readable by breaking things up into separate chunks for Injuries, Running Game (with weekly rank), Passing Game (with weekly rank), Top Targets and my favorite new feature, TD Predictions. Give it a look and let me know any feedback you have on the new format and predictions on Twitter @Rotopilot.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D Vegas
New Orleans Saints 55 54 36 29 54 55 52 -7
Dallas Cowboys 54 45 74 82 38 27 32 52

Saints

Injuries Notes

  • Tre’Quan Smith will play

Pace/Vegas: Saints have won 10 straight games and have scored at least 30 points in five straight games. Saints as a touchdown favorite on the road suggest they will be more run-heavy than normal.

Running Game (14th): Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram will have their typical split of the backfield carries. The Cowboys rank 8th DVOA against the run and have allowed just 3.64 YPC (5th) to opposing RBs on the season but 4.01 YPC (14th) over the last five weeks. A battle of strengths with a good rush offense against a solid rush defense. Look for Kamara and Ingram to produce slightly below their typical level of production.

Passing Game (9th): Drew Brees will look to continue his sensational season against a Cowboys pass defense that ranks 20th DVOA and has allowed 290 yards (25th) per game over the last five weeks. Brees is typically not as productive on the road as he is at home, however.

Top Targets: Look for the Saints to go back to their big guns after spreading the wealth on Thanksgiving. Michael Thomas should continue to dominate targets with the best individual matchup of the WRs. Kamara should fare well against a Cowboys defense that ranks 24th DVOA against pass-catching backs.

TD Predictions:

  • Drew Brees to Michael Thomas
  • Drew Brees to Dan Arnold
  • Alvin Kamara rushing TD

 

Cowboys

Injuries Notes

  • None

Pace/Vegas: Cowboys have won three straight games. They will look to slow the game down with the running game to keep the Saints offense off the field but if they fall behind as the Vegas line suspects they could need to pass more often than usual.

Running Game (26th): The running game behind Ezekiel Elliott is their strength but the Saints bring in the 3rd DVOA ranked run defense that has allowed just 3.24 YPC (1st) this season. They have been a little more forgiving recently allowing 4.0 YPC (13th) over the last five weeks and give up a rushing score in about half of their games. Yards will be hard to come by for Elliott, but he should find the end zone.

Passing Game (10th): Dak Prescott’s production will likely depend on game flow. If they fall behind they could take advantage of the Saints 21st DVOA ranked pass defense that has surrendered a bunch of yardage this season with 303 per game (31st), including 296 per game (26th) over the last five weeks.

Top Targets: The Cowboys top targets should be fairly condensed. Elliott has been targeted at least five times in five straight weeks and faces the 28th DVOA ranked defense against pass-catching backs. Amari Cooper is coming off a huge game and gets a plus matchup, while Cole Beasley could be the surprise this week with the best individual matchup working out of the slot.

TD Predictions:

  • Ezekiel Elliott rushing
  • Dak Prescott to Cole Beasley

Hot Picks:

  • Alvin Kamara (*)
  • Michael Thomas (*)
  • Ezekiel Elliott (*)
  • Amari Cooper (*)
  • Cole Beasley (**)
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NBA – Hot Sheet – November 28

There aren’t too many injuries to monitor on Wednesday’s big 10-game slate but there are a bunch of games with blowout potential. There are five games with a double-digit favorite which could reduce minutes for key players in those games, so you may want to limit your exposure to them. There is also a game with a massive 240-point Vegas total between the Wizards and Pelicans that just so happens to also have one of the tighter lines of the night.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

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Hot Sheet for November 28th

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