Entries by Brad Richter

NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 2

Now that we have one week of data in the books, we’ll roll out our full-blown Weighted Consensus Rankings this week which also includes projected ownership percentages for Cash games and GPPs. The NFL DFS analysts sure seem to agree who the top plays are at each position this week which could lead to some very high ownership percentages, especially at RB and WR.

Each position has been broken into “Cash” and “GPP” plays based on natural breaks in the consensus rankings. This doesn’t mean to only consider players in each block for each contest type, but it should give you a good idea of where they might be a more powerful option.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NFL DFS expert’s recommendations that consider each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that have a Rank Score of at least 8.0.

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Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 2…

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NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 2 – 2019

Now that Week 1 is in the books we have a little bit of fresh data to explore when analyzing the matchups heading into Week 2. That doesn’t always make things easier, especially when the first game of this season contradicts how a team performed last season. Finding the new truth from the old reality can be challenging the first few weeks of the year, but I’ll give it a go with the Week 2 game-by-game breakdown including predictions for every touchdown, Top DFS plays, and a few Best Bets.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

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NFL – Week 2 Showdown (Thursday) – TB v CAR

My Showdown experiment has had mixed results through the first weekend with just a 43% win rate in head-to-heads but min-cashing (2x) in two of the three single-entry GPPs. As such, these Showdown articles will continue to be free for your viewing pleasure to use or fad as you wish. Week 2 starts off on […]

PGA – 2019 Military Tribute at Greenbrier – Expert Consensus

The PGA Tour kicks off the 2019-20 season at Greenbrier with the Military Tribute event. With the new season, we will reset our grading and add a few more DFS analysis into the mix. This article will just show the count of experts that selected each golfer as we wait a week or two before publishing the first Weighted Consensus of the new season. All golfers that were selected by at least three experts have been included along with projected ownership for Cash and GPPs based on last seasons numbers.

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Here is the PGA Consensus list for the Military Tribute at Greenbrier:

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NFL – DFS Expert Grading and Recap – Week 1

It was an exciting first week of the 2019 NFL season with some upsets and surprise superstars. Rotowire navigated the Sunday slate the best, followed by DailyRoto and RotoGrinders – Lineup Builder. While DFSKarma – GPP Breakdown provides some strong value plays. We’ll see if these analysts can duplicate their strong Week 1 efforts all […]

NFL – Handicapper Results and Recap – Week 1

The NFL regular season kicked off with our second season of tracking NFL Handicappers. Jason Logan (Covers) and Larry Hartstein (Sportsline) led the way in the first week as both registered perfect 3-0 records against the spread. Another pair of Sportsline handicappers, Hank Goldberg (4-1) and Mike Tierney (5-2) also had strong showings. Our Consensus […]

Nascar – Expert Recap and Grading – Big Machine Vodka 400

The last race before the Nascar playoffs saw NumberFire produce a convincing win among DFS analysts which also moved them into 1st place on the Overall Leaderboard. FullTimeFantasy and DraftKings Playbook rounded out the Top 3 for the week. Meanwhile, there is a tight four-way race in the season-to-date standings with DailyFantasySportsRankings, DFSKarma, and DFSArmy […]

NFL – Week 1 Showdown (Monday) – HOU v NO / DEN v OAK

My first foray into the Showdown slate on Thursday went well as I cashed in all Double-Ups and won 71.4% of my head-to-heads. After skipping Sunday night, I back with a doubleheader of Showdown matchup on Monday night with the Texans and Saints (fun) followed by the Broncos and Raiders (yawn). Remember, the focus of […]

Nascar – 2019 Big Machine Vodka 400 – Industry Expert Consensus

Nascar drivers and DFS expert battle for position in the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard. There are a couple of value drivers near the top of the Weighted Consensus Rankings, so sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to get this article along with all of our NFL content.

The Weighted Consensus for the Nascar uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that have a Rank Score over 8.0.

Here is the Nascar Weighted Consensus list for the Big Machine Vodka 400:

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NFL – Handicapper Consensus Picks – Week 1 – 2019

Welcome to the Week 1 NFL Handicapper Consensus!  Last year, in our inaugural season tracking NFL handicappers, our Consensus Picks finished 51-45-4 ATS (53.1%) up 1.5 units. In the opening weekend, the NFL handicappers seem to be in agreement for the most part with 12 teams getting picked at least three times more than their opponent. Let’s see how these handicappers do to start the season.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of Handicapper Picks against the spread and totals where we pay for the premium picks and take the time and effort to accumulate them, so you don’t have to. This week we pulled picks from XX expert sites and XX different handicappers to get our consensus betting selections.  Picks make the Consensus list if they receive at least three more selection on one side than the other side. We will also be grading handicappers throughout the season.

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Here is the NFL Handicapper Consensus list for Week 1…

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NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 1

The first Sunday of the 2019 season is about to kickoff with 12 games on the gridiron. For this first week, we won’t have the “weighted” component since we have may new DFS experts that we are pulling picks from this season. We have pulled in 33 analysts’ recommendations for Week 1. We will include all players that were selected by at least three experts this week. The picks have been somewhat arbitrarily split between Cash and GPP where there is a natural break in the total count. Game on!

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Consensus list for Week 1…

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NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 1 – 2019

With one game in the books, the 2019 NFL season is underway. Which means it is time to take a deep dive into the 12-game Sunday main slate with my NFL Hot Sheet article. The article will take a similar form to how it finished in 2018 with more of a bullet-point format that is easier to read (and write) while still supplying a game-by-game breakdown of the slate, including my “Hot Picks” for each game. I also summarize the slate into my Top Plays at each position for DFS (DraftKings focused but good for any site), and round it out with my Best Bets for the week.

Here is a refresher on my process for creating the Hot Sheet…

I analyze each game and provide a write-up of how I expect each game to play out based on game script using the ratings I have compiled for each position. The charts below show the rating for each position per team based on each team’s own offensive performance and their opponent’s defensive performance for a variety of factors over the season and last five weeks (Note that the first few weeks will still rely on last season’s stats):

  • Vegas line and total
  • Team pace (plays)
  • Overall play distribution
  • Red Zone and Inside 10 play distribution
  • Yards per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
  • TD per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
  • DVOA ratings from FootballOutsiders
  • Sacks, turnovers and defensive touchdowns

All of these stats and rankings are compiled, weighted and averaged to come up with a single “rating” for each team by position for this week. Numbers in red are “hot” indicating a good matchup.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

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