Entries by Brad Richter

NFL – Handicapper Consensus Picks – Week 1 – 2019

Welcome to the Week 1 NFL Handicapper Consensus!  Last year, in our inaugural season tracking NFL handicappers, our Consensus Picks finished 51-45-4 ATS (53.1%) up 1.5 units. In the opening weekend, the NFL handicappers seem to be in agreement for the most part with 12 teams getting picked at least three times more than their opponent. Let’s see how these handicappers do to start the season.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of Handicapper Picks against the spread and totals where we pay for the premium picks and take the time and effort to accumulate them, so you don’t have to. This week we pulled picks from XX expert sites and XX different handicappers to get our consensus betting selections.  Picks make the Consensus list if they receive at least three more selection on one side than the other side. We will also be grading handicappers throughout the season.

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Here is the NFL Handicapper Consensus list for Week 1…

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NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 1

The first Sunday of the 2019 season is about to kickoff with 12 games on the gridiron. For this first week, we won’t have the “weighted” component since we have may new DFS experts that we are pulling picks from this season. We have pulled in 33 analysts’ recommendations for Week 1. We will include all players that were selected by at least three experts this week. The picks have been somewhat arbitrarily split between Cash and GPP where there is a natural break in the total count. Game on!

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Consensus list for Week 1…

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NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 1 – 2019

With one game in the books, the 2019 NFL season is underway. Which means it is time to take a deep dive into the 12-game Sunday main slate with my NFL Hot Sheet article. The article will take a similar form to how it finished in 2018 with more of a bullet-point format that is easier to read (and write) while still supplying a game-by-game breakdown of the slate, including my “Hot Picks” for each game. I also summarize the slate into my Top Plays at each position for DFS (DraftKings focused but good for any site), and round it out with my Best Bets for the week.

Here is a refresher on my process for creating the Hot Sheet…

I analyze each game and provide a write-up of how I expect each game to play out based on game script using the ratings I have compiled for each position. The charts below show the rating for each position per team based on each team’s own offensive performance and their opponent’s defensive performance for a variety of factors over the season and last five weeks (Note that the first few weeks will still rely on last season’s stats):

  • Vegas line and total
  • Team pace (plays)
  • Overall play distribution
  • Red Zone and Inside 10 play distribution
  • Yards per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
  • TD per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
  • DVOA ratings from FootballOutsiders
  • Sacks, turnovers and defensive touchdowns

All of these stats and rankings are compiled, weighted and averaged to come up with a single “rating” for each team by position for this week. Numbers in red are “hot” indicating a good matchup.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

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NFL – Value Index- Week 1

I know what it felt like for teenage girls attending N’Sync and Backstreet Boys concerts in the late 90s.

Because how I feel about Week 1 of the NFL season, I imagine, is about the same. Bright-eyed, bushy tailed and I want to scream and jump up and down with excitement…maybe even cry a little.

Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season is here and we all get to see how all the preseason hub plays out. Honestly, I can’t remember so much action from teams after the cut line leading up to the first week of the season.

After teams has to narrow their rosters to 53, dominoes started to fall, trades were made and plenty of players switched teams.

There’s lots of drama still to unfold as we kickoff on Sunday. How much will Zeke play? Will Melvin Gordon get traded? Is Josh Gordon going to play a full game? Will Duke Johnson get a full workload? Will LeSean McCoy get a full workload?  Will the Cardinals and the new Air Raid attack hang a 50 burger on the Lions? Will the Lions hang a 50-burger on the Cardinals because their defense is so bad? Is Jimmy G the real deal? Will Baker and Odell fly? Will Dalvin Cook be a 3-down back? Will Leonard Fournette be a 3-down back? Will Le’Veon Bell receive a full workload? Will Antonio Brown figure out Helmet Gate?

Well, you get the picture…

There’s probably 6-7 teams on this week’s main slate that I want to target, maybe even more, but we can’t play them all. There’s one game stack I really love that I am unsure how people will treat it, and there’s plenty of other spots where players are in prime positions.

It’s Week 1, folks! Let’s enjoy this ride while it lasts because we all know that it FLIES BY QUICKLY!

Before we know it, Week 8 will be here, then the fantasy playoffs, then Christmas, then the Super Bowl…ENJOY THE SEASON!

Now, let’s break down the MF’er with today’s value plays (which it’s Week 1, so pricing if way down on everyone), and try to ship some dough.

QUARTERBACKS

Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals – $5,600

Analysis: The Cardinals are either going to burn me right out of the gate, or hopefully make me some money and kick off my best balls in the best fashion. The preseason was NOTHING like what this team will roll out Sunday in their actual dress rehearsal. I imagine there will be struggles, and maybe the Lions slow the pace down, but knowing Kingsbury as a former Texas Tech quarterback, managing the Air Raid offense as a head coach at Tech, and understanding Kyler Murray’s strengths and weaknesses, I want to be ahead of this ship. Kingsbury will utilize all of his available receivers, get Murray moving out of the pocket, have 4 and 5-wide sets and create space in the middle of the field. Murray has rushing upside that elevates his floor, and has one of the best running backs in football at his disposal. I am not worried about that garbage everyone saw in the preseason. It was about as plain as a Nilla Wafer.

Jimmy Garoppolo – San Francisco 49ers – $5,800

Analysis: The only other QB I am considering this week is Jimmy G. The 49ers travel to Tampa Bay, so it is one of the West to East coast trips, but the game isn’t at noon and they haven’t played a meaningful game all year. With that, I am not worried about that travel narrative at all. The 49ers and Kyle Shanahan draw the Tampa Bay Bucs, who should have one of the worst defenses, one of the more potent offenses and provide some shootout potential every week. Jimmy G will have two solid pass catching RBs, George Kittle, and a host of receivers to find down the field from speedster Marquise Goodwin to rookie stud Deebo Samuel to Dante Pettis, who has had his coach up his ass all preseason. Everyone loved Jimmy G last year before an injury ended his season. So what’s changed for 2019?

RUNNING BACKS

Dalvin Cook – Minnesota Vikings – $6,000

Analysis: You won’t find a chalkier RB this week than Dalvin Cook. He’s been talked up by just about everyone this summer and this preseason. It’s hard to deny, but he is likely a fade for me in the Milly Maker, but a definite cash game staple. He should have a 3-down role, is up against the Atlanta Falcons, who have been a sieve to pass-catching backs for multiple years in a row, and the Vikings are a fairly large favorite. With Cook’s price and all the talk, look for him to have the most exposure by the masses.

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MLB – Industry Expert Consensus – September 4th

There are only five hitter stacks on the list for Wednesday night’s eight-game MLB DFS slate. Meanwhile, there are six potential pitching options including plenty of value on the mound.

The Weighted Consensus for the MLB is where we publish an in-depth version of rankings every day that considers each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.  To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for hitters and pitchers is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 8.0.

The MLB Weighted Consensus article will be part of the premium content, so sign up now for a FREE 7-day trial so you don’t miss any of the content here at DailyOverlay.

Scroll to the bottom of the article for the “Top Stacks” section that lists out the teams with the most hitters being recommended by the experts today. Also, be sure to check each team’s lineup when it is released and watch the weather before finalizing your lineups.

Let’s play ball!

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NFL – Week 1 Showdown (Thursday) – GB v CHI

When the single-game “Showdown” slates were introduced, I vowed to never put any money toward them since I view them as a crapshoot. A year later, here I am writing an article about them as I’m ready to dip my toe into the single-game pool. I will try to write up a single-game slate article […]

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CFB – Power 5 – Week 2 (Early)

On your mark…

Get set…

Thwomp!

That’s the sound of your face stumbling out of the gates in Week 1 of the 2019 College Football season.

By “you,” I mean me.

I stumbled out of the gates in Week 1 of the 2019 College Football season.

So much for that cheap Alabama running back or that Ole Miss/Memphis stack.

At least I got Patrick Taylor Jr. correct, but so did a lot of people. I did say he was my favorite play overall and I was 100% in on him.

It’s just too bad the rest of my team took a dump on my chest, specifically players from Ole Miss and Memphis.

Week 2 is going to be here quickly, and with the NFL debuting this week, it’s going to be one awesomely, fun football ride!

For everyone reading, the Power 5 will focus on five of my top plays for the upcoming DFS slate. We will mostly focus on the early slates for this write up and that is the case here. So below are my top five plays, in any order and at any position. I might have 2 QBs, 2 RBs and a WR, or 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, or 3 RBs, 2 WRs or in rare events, 4 or 5 RBs or WRs.

As I write this, it looks like UCLA’s Joshua Kelley and Theo Howard practiced in full Monday. Kelley burned a lot of lineups (including mine) by dressing out and not playing. For me, there’s lots riding on Kelley playing and not playing, so I am going to avoid UCLA altogether and will be monitoring their status before kickoff. If Kelley goes, I am in. If he doesn’t then Demetric Felton (tabbed a WR on DK) will get many looks from me at a cheap price and not being in the right position. But overall, just staying away from all of them for this week’s write up. Just know, you might see a UCLA player or two in my lineups on Saturday.

Good luck in Week 2 and will see you (hopefully) near the top of the CFB DFS standings!

1. Mekhi Sargeant – RB – Iowa – $6,200

Analysis: So UMASS….put it to Rutgers a bit. Then Rutgers blew out the Minutemen. UMASS amassed 186 rushing yards against the Scarlet Knights. Now Rutgers actually gets a tough test in the Iowa Hawkeyes, a Big 10 rumbler who championed Mekhi Sargeant in its first tumble versus Miami (OH). Iowa rolled easily, so Sargeant got just 14 carries, but he turned them into 91 yards and a score. But what’s encouraging are the 4 catches for 65 yards on 5 targets. We want those dual-threat running backs in our DFS lineups, and we get one here at a reasonable price. The Hawkeyes have a knack for pulling the rug out from under us in the past with their RB rotations, but Sargeant is the guy as we know it. And yes, we can maybe expect a lighter workload in a blowout, but hopefully Sargeant is part of the reason for the blowout.

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MLB – Industry Expert Consensus – September 3rd

The MLB has a solid 12-game slate on tap Tuesday night. Many MLB DFS analysts are still pumping out content even with the NFL season just about ready to begin. It looks like you might have to spend up on the mound with four of the six options coming in with high salaries. So, who are the value pitchers to consider? Sign up for a free 7-day trial to find out!

The Weighted Consensus for the MLB is where we publish an in-depth version of rankings every day that considers each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.  To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for hitters and pitchers is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 8.0.

The MLB Weighted Consensus article will be part of the premium content, so sign up now for a FREE 7-day trial so you don’t miss any of the content here at DailyOverlay.

Scroll to the bottom of the article for the “Top Stacks” section that lists out the teams with the most hitters being recommended by the experts today. Also, be sure to check each team’s lineup when it is released and watch the weather before finalizing your lineups.

Let’s play ball!

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Nascar – 2019 Bojangles Southern 500 – Industry Expert Consensus

After a week off, Nascar is back at the track for the Bojangles Southern 500 at Darlington on Sunday night. Finding value might be difficult in Nascar DFS this weekend. There is a lot of high-priced drivers near the top of the Weighted Consensus Rankings, so picking the right value options could be the key to success.

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The Weighted Consensus for the Nascar uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that have a Rank Score over 8.0.

Here is the Nascar Weighted Consensus list for the Bojangles Southern 500:

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CFB – Industry Expert Consensus – Saturday (Early), August 31st (Week 1)

The first full weekend of the College Football season rolls on with a 10-game DFS main slate on Saturday (early slate). There is plenty of value mixed in with the high-priced options at every position. Game on!

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Here is the CFB DFS Weighted Consensus list for August 31st (Early)

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MLB – On the Hill – Friday (August 30)

This will be my final MLB DFS “On the Hill” article of the season as the calendar flips to September and football gets into full swing. It has been a fun season of MLB DFS with of course some highs and lows but good overall as my picks have finished in the Top 10 on both the pitching and hitting standings this season.

So, with that here is my recommendation for Friday’s 14-game MLB slate. It seems like you might need to eat the chalk with your hitting stacks and try to get different on the mound. Enjoy, and watch for my NFL Hot Sheet for Week 1.

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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…

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