Entries by Brad Richter

PGA – 2017 Shriners Open – Weighted Consensus

Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.

Be sure to sign up a FREE 7-day trial of our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sit atop the expert’s list.

Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the Shriners Open:

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November 1 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Wednesday (Nov 1)

While we have a nice big 12-games slate on Wednesday night in the Association, I am less excited about the matchups than I was for the mini four-game slate on Tuesday. Six games feature a favorite of at least eight points and there are only three games with a Vegas total over 215. Be sure to watch for injury news leading up to tipoff as some lineup decisions could play heavily into opening up value plays so you can fit in a few of the big stars that are on the slate.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid. To get a full rundown of the numbers behind the rating check out my first NBA Hot Sheet article of the season.

Hot Sheet for November 1st

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November 1 by

NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – October 31st

Just a small four-game slate for Halloween night. A small slate leads to a small, focused list of recommendations from the DFS experts with only 20 players listed on Tuesday. However, we do have a couple interesting games including one fast-paced, high-scoring game between the Suns and Nets, and a marquee matchup between Russell Westbrook […]

October 31 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Tuesday (Oct 31)

Welcome to the Halloween edition of the NBA Hot Sheet. I’m not a big Halloween guy but if you are looking for an easy last-minute costume for your child I do remember dressing up as a “Sports Nut” one year where I wore a sports jersey and a football helmet with a bunch of peanuts taped all over me. Classic!

While we only have four games on the slate Tuesday night, there should be some entertaining games to watch while you stuff your face with Halloween candy. We have the two fastest pace teams (Suns/Nets) squaring off in Brooklyn and a marquee matchup between Russell Westbrook and Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid. To get a full rundown of the numbers behind the rating check out my first NBA Hot Sheet article of the season.

Hot Sheet for October 31st

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October 31 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Monday (Oct 30)

Now that we are a couple weeks into the season and every team has played at least five games the NBA Hot Sheet will not only utilize numbers from this season instead of leveraging some inputs from last season. This should give a clearer picture of the positions and players to target going forward. Monday sets up nicely with a nine-game slate including five games with Vegas totals over 215 points and no game with a favorite of more than seven points. As always, be sure to watch for late-breaking news to find some last-minute value options.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid. To get a full rundown of the numbers behind the rating check out my first NBA Hot Sheet article of the season.

Hot Sheet for October 30th

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October 30 by

NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 8

Crazy Week 8 is upon us with only nine games on the DraftKings main slate due to six teams on bye, yet another Sunday morning game in London and the usual three primetime matchups (Thursday, Sunday and Monday). Despite the shorter slate the industry DFS analysts still came up with a nice list of players to consider for our DFS lineups including some very chalky options at QB, RB and DEF. So, picking the right WRs and TEs might be the key to success this week.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend, only $9.99/month for all sports!  We crowdsource all the experts in DailyFantasy Sports to bring you the top consensus plays.

Here is our article on how to use the consensus plays:  https://dailyoverlay.com/how-to-use-the-consensus-plays/

BIG NEWS this week:  Play the top 3 RB’s and you can get them all in with all the top consensus play at each position on FantasyDraft.   This lineup should be a cash game killer on that site.  First time we have been able to choose EVERY top play into a lineup!

Please use this link to signup for FantasyDraft : FantasyDraft with DailyOverlay

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 8…

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October 28 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Friday (Oct 27)

We have finally reached the end of the work week and top it off with a seven-game NBA slate. The slate tonight looks like a good one for points and fantasy production with every game coming in with a Vegas total over 206, including three games over 219. It looks like a difficult slate to […]

October 27 by

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 8

We roll near the midway point of the season as we enter Week 8 which includes six teams on bye plus another early Sunday game in London in addition to the Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games leaving us with just a nine-game “main” slate on DraftKings. However, despite the short slate there feels like a lot of good spots and matchups that we can exploit in our DFS lineups.

Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to read this full article and to get all the other great content here at DailyOverlay.

Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Miami Dolphins 32 41 22 28 39 50 53 45 37.5
Baltimore Ravens 42 45 60 69 52 42 51 34 -3

The Dolphins have won three straight games in spite of Jay Cutler thanks to good defensive performances. With Cutler getting injured last week, Matt Moore will take over under center for Dolphins after leading a fourth-quarter comeback against the Jets last week. Despite his heroics last week he will have a difficult task against a strong Ravens’ pass defense that has allowed just 198.6 passing yards (6th) and 1.14 TD passes (5th) per game this season. The most vulnerable part of the Ravens’ pass defense is through the TE position so Julius Thomas could put up his best game of the season, which wouldn’t be difficult since last week’s three catches for 58 yards are his season-highs. The Dolphins running game behind Jay Ajayi could be the best way for the Dolphins to move the ball with the Ravens allowing a league-worst 129.6 yards per game and one rushing score per game over the last five weeks. Ajayi is only averaging 3.5 YPC this season but he is getting the volume with 20+ carries in three straight weeks.

The Ravens have lost four of their last five games after a road loss to the Vikings last week. The entire Ravens’ receiving corp is questionable for Thursday’s game against the Dolphins leaving a lot of questions around who Joe Flacco will be able to pass to. Flacco and the Ravens’ passing game has struggled this season averaging just 175 passing yards and 0.86 TD passes per game this season. So, despite a good matchup against the Dolphins’ 27th DVOA ranked pass defense pinpointing who to target in the passing game will be a mystery until we see the inactives. That said if Jeremy Maclin plays he is the only Ravens’ WR option I would even consider. The running game could be leaned on with so many injuries on the outside but they have a tough matchup against the Dolphins’ 4th DVOA ranked run defense. Yardage will be hard to come by for the split backfield leaving all of them out of play.

Hot Picks:

  • Jeremy Maclin (*)
  • Julius Thomas (*)
  • Jay Ajayi (*)
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October 26 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Thursday (Oct 26)

Lineup construction could be a challenge on Thursday’s small five-game slate of NBA action with no Vegas point total higher than 212. The themes of the night seem to be the Bulls, rookies and Holidays. Watch injury statuses extra closely tonight as any value that can be freed up will be very helpful to pay […]

October 26 by

PGA – 2017 HSBC Champions – Weighted Consensus

Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.

Be sure to sign up a FREE 7-day trial of our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sit atop the expert’s list.

Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the HSBC Champions:

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October 25 by

NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – October 25th

We have a 10-game NBA slate for Wednesday night. It could be a high-scoring night with six of the 10 games coming in with a Vegas total over 210 including four games over 220 points. There are also a nice mix of value options available due to injuries on the Expert Consensus List including the top recommended player who is under $6,000 on DraftKings.

The Weighted Consensus for the NBA uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 10.

As a reminder, most of our NBA content will be part of our premium membership. Now is a great time to sign up for our premium content at only $9.99 per month so you are all set for the NBA season, in addition to getting our fantastic NFL and PGA content.

Here is the NBA Weighted Consensus list for October 25:

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October 25 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Wednesday (Oct 25)

Wednesday night sets up with a 10-game slate of NBA action. Finding value is getting a little harder to come by as player pricing is starting to fall in line with fantasy production but there should be a few situations to take advantage of due to injuries and/or favorable matchups. There are also some distinct games to play with five Vegas totals over 217 points and games to avoid with a pair of games under projected under 200 points.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid. To get a full rundown of the numbers behind the ratings, check out my first NBA Hot Sheet article of the season. Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to check out all the content here at DailyOverlay.

Hot Sheet for October 25th

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October 25 by