It’s rivalry week in college football….or at least one of the many. But there are three key rivalries this week on the DFS main slate on DraftKings. There’s OU/Texas, LSU/Florida and Florida State/Miami. These rivalries aren’t what they once were, but I think Texas/OU is the game of the slate. Anything can happen in this […]
We are starting see the trend of the 2018 NFL season. New rules have exploded offensive scoring. Last week was the first time in NFL history 5 or more QBs have thrown for 400 yards in a day.
We are a quarter of the way through the fantasy football season, and not only are offenses exploding, we are also seeing a rising star reaching for the top of the universe in Patrick Mahomes.
Overshadowing everyone else at the QB position so far, Mahomes has the Chiefs riding a 4-0 start and helped orchestrate a comeback in Denver on Monday Night, even having to use his left hand to get the job done.
Mahomes was a stud at Texas Tech and a delight to watch, but I would’ve never guessed this kind of start for a Texas Tech/Big 12 quarterback.
The most fascinating thing is he hasn’t thrown an interception.
Now, some of this is going to come back to earth, and that certainly may be this week (more on that later), but much like Deshaun Watson last year, Mahomes has taken the NFL and fantasy players everywhere, by storm.
Let’s just hope he can stay healthy…
A recap in Week 4. The strongest position was the running back position followed by quarterbacks, wide receivers and then tight ends. GPPs weren’t kind to me this week, but cash games made up for that loss (see Thursday).
Now let’s tackle Week 5 in this week’s GPP Index
QUARTERBACKS
Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers – $6,900
Analysis: Steelers are taking on the Falcons at home in a game with a 57 total. Big Ben at home against a beat-up Falcons defense that has allowed 318, 391 and 308 passing yards the past three games. The Falcons have allowed 104 points in those three games and 284 passing yards per game.
Phillip Rivers – Los Angeles Chargers – $6,700
Analysis: Both teams defenses have been atrocious this season, and I don’t see that changing overnight for Week 5. Both defenses have allowed 30+ yards per game this season. Rivers is the second-highest priced QB in a game with a 52.5 over/under.
Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons – $6,600
Analysis: Let’s see if the Matt Ryan outside narrative works this week. He’s been lights out his past 3 games, all indoors at home.Now his price has caught up to his production. Taking on the Steelers in Pittsburgh is never easy, however Pitt is allowing an absurd 304 yards passing per game.
Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers – $6,300
Analysis: Rodgers is coming off a performance that didn’t require him to do much. Now he gets a road showdown against the Lions indoors on field turf. The downside here is that Rodgers may be without Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison, which would alter the Green Bay game plan a bit. Aaron Jones also is back and he’s dynamic himself. All of these leave Rodgers as a GPP play only despite this game’s 50.5 over/under.
Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs – $6,200
Analysis: The ultimate tournament play this week. Will you play Mahomes at home against that Jacksonville defense? It will be his toughest test to date, but Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt and any slot work from Tyreek Hill and the rest of the cast of characters can beat this defense. The price is reduced thanks to the matchup, but the upside is way up there and the price has come way down.
What a bang to Week 4 Thursday night! Vikings and Rams put on a show, making a case to keep Thursday night football around. I am in the camp that Thursday football should be reserved for Thanksgiving Day, but the NFL is matching up better teams this year so hopefully that makes things more entertaining […]
This week in college football is Big 12 country. The early slate, which will be our focus today, features 8 of the 10 teams in the Big 12 (yes, there are only 10 teams in the Big 12). There’s a huge matchup between West Virginia, who travels to Lubbock for an early date with newly […]
It’s ALREADY Week 4 in the NFL. This sport always goes by so fast, so we better enjoy it while we can.
Week 3 was dominated by controversy with the new roughing the passer penalty that doesn’t allow a player to put his body weight on a quarterback.
Disregarding physics, the NFL felt this would be an easy rule to follow, failing to realize how difficult it is for a person to react and stop momentum in the heat of attempting to keep a quarterback from beating his defense down the field.
I hope the damn rule gets overthrown because it makes the league look bad. I understand wanting to protect quarterbacks, the most important position, but a defense can’t be afraid to prevent a team from scoring for fear of penalty.
Time will tell, but sometimes enough complaints can make change happen, so I hope the fans and the media keep it up as these penalties will continue.
Alright, now to Week 4 DFS instead of lumbering on.
We had a big casualty over the course of Week 3 – Jimmy G’s ACL.
It sucks that San Fran’s franchise QB is out for the season alongside fellow teammate Jerick McKinnon. Now they have to rely on C.J. Beathard, a mediocre college quarterback from Iowa, to shoulder the load. I am not certain he can throw 50 yards down the field without pressure. San Fran is likely going to be bad moving forward, unless they somehow acquire a midseason QB a la their Jimmy G trade a year ago.
This week in DFS is going to be interesting as we don’t have any games that truly jump off the page. There are a couple of games that have some decently high totals, but nothing that looks definitive. I think this will be a week to find that game that no one else is on in tournaments.
Other story lines to consider this week – Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen are both making their first career NFL starts. So with that, let’s segue to this week’s GPP picks.
QUARTERBACKS
Baker Mayfield – Cleveland Browns – $5,300
Analysis: Oh come on, of course he’s going to be here! But this isn’t a Johnny Manziel type of dart throw, this is a legit, cheap option with tons of upside and who is going to be a legit QB for this franchise. Oakland has allowed 258 yards passing per game this season, including 332 to the Dolphins last week. The Raiders don’t put pressure on the QB, and if they do, Mayfield can make something happen with his legs. He’s still a rookie, so there’s lots of potential for error, making him a tournament-only play for me.
Josh Rosen – Arizona Cardinals – $4,500
Analysis: The Cardinals’ offense is atrocious, thus Josh Rosen gets to be a jolt of energy. We don’t get a starting QB worthy of 2-3 TD upside at minimum price, but he is starting at home and gets to raise this offense out of the depths of hell. DJ and Larry Fitzgerald should make for some easy, short-yardage targets, too.
Ryan Tannehill – Miami Dolphins – $5,500
Analysis: I just can’t recommend Tannehill for cash because he’s still Ryan Tannehill. But he’s cheap enough that volume and opportunity are worth the risk. Up against the Pats, who have allowed 406 yards of offense per game plus 25 points per game, Tannehill should be chucking it in a game where the Dolphins are likely to be behind.
Eli Manning – New York Giants – $5,600
Analysis: Excuse me, I just threw up in my mouth a little bit. Typing the words Eli Manning make me nauseous. With that said, Manning and the Giants get the Saints, who have allowed 336 yards passing and 34 points per game through 3 games.
I am still irked about my cash games in Week 2, so writing this intro sucks. Things were going so great and I had Kittle and Pettis to go. They started strong with a few catches and thought they would be good to go, masking my egregious error. But Todd Gurley scored 3 touchdowns, Emmanuel […]
I’ll be honest, I don’t love this week’s slate of games for the early slate. The evening slate on DraftKings has a few more games I feel comfortable targeting and games that should be entertaining.
But DraftKings shit the bed with their evening contests and they are virtually unplayable.
So we are going to do our best to bring you some of the best plays to take down a GPP in Week 4 of college football…yes, we are already to Week 4!
Now let me preface something….Baylor.
I think one of their quarterbacks breaks the slate against Kansas, but I’ll be damned trying to pick which one comes out on top. I guess an interesting strategy would be to pair them together to soak up all the usage?
I am highly interested in them this week, but I am not going to make them official picks because I literally can’t choose. But they will be in all of my lineups, possibly even paired together.
Keep them in mind with your roster construction, but enough about the Bears, let’s get to the meat of this week’s Power 5.
We will do wide receivers as the free preview this week, too. Good luck!
WIDE RECEIVERS
Jerry Jeudy – Alabama – $8,400
Analysis: Has he received the nickname Judge Jeudy yet? He’s been the ‘Bama executioner in three games so far with 2 touchdowns in every blow out. The jury is still out on whether he will be this consistent all year with Alabama likely beating the tar out of most of its competition. They do get ‘Bama this week and the Aggies will be ready to play. The Aggies’ weakness has been against the passing game, allowing 250 yards per game so far this season. Jeudy is the top target in a game that could be close and feature some points, meaning Jeudy will have to be on the field all game.
Jalen Hurd – Baylor – $7,600
Analysis: It’s weird to me that the former Tennessee running back is now a wide receiver for Baylor, but he’s the top wideout in this offense alongside Denzel Mims who should return this week against Kansas. Hurd has 18 catches and two touchdowns through 3 games and while Kansas has two straight wins, they are now playing the big boys as Big 12 conference play begins. Baylor isn’t a big boy, but they shouldn’t struggle to toss Kansas around like a stuffed animal.
David Sills V – West Virginia – $8,000
Analysis: I am going to fall back and chase Sills to return to Sills form. He was the team leader in touchdown receptions last year and Jennings, his stellar counterpart, is coming off a monster 3-touchdown game. West Virginia is the cream of the crop in the Big 12 and lowly Kansas State doesn’t stand a chance. Sills should have a heavy role in the Mountaineers opening Big 12 play with a win.
Greg Dortch – Wake Forest – $7,900
Analysis: I’ll be honest, I am not very familiar with Greg Dortch. His name sounds like he should be a plumber or something. But he’s actually Wake Forest’s top receiver going up a Notre Dame squad that is vastly overrated and has been bombed through the air this season for 251 yards per game against Michigan, Ball State and Vandy…none of whom are prolific passing teams. Wake does have a solid passing attack, averaging 278 yards per game thus far. Dortch himself has logged 28 catches through 3 games for 336 yards and a score.
Rondale Moore – Purdue – $6,900
Analysis: Moore actually was my last man in this week and made the Power 5 at receiver turn into the Power 6. He’s a cheaper No. 1 receiving option on this slate going up against a leaky Boston College defense in a game with an over/under of 63. Purdue has homefield advantage and Moore and quarterback David Blough (if Sindelar is unable to go) make a solid 1-2 punch versus the Eagles whose only opponent of note is Wake Forest. In that game, Wake quarterback Sam Hartman tossed 2 touchdown passes. Purdue has a better QB throwing the pigskin allowed and Moore has been the top option for this team, logging 2 games of 11 catches each for a total of 246 yards and two scores.
Jeff Smith – Boston College – $5,000
Analysis: I have said there will be lots of points scored in the BC/Purdue game, or at least there should be. BC is a run-first team, but they have the QB and receiver to make splash plays in the passing game as well. Jeff Smith is coming off a huge game with 6 catches for 145 yards and 2 scores. He had 3 carries in the game against Wake for 42 yards. Smith should be in another game that could be back and forth and him needing to be on the field. Before Wake, BC had faced off against UMASS and whatever H.C. is.
We are flipping and flopping things this week for the GPP and Cash Game Indexes. From this point and beyond, the GPP Index will release prior to my Cash Game Index. This will allow more time for me to work through my process as news breaks throughout the week. Last week, we saw moves like […]
We are coming down to the wire before the rest of Week 2 in the NFL begins. We have already seen A.J. Green go ham this week, and that was against an allegedly stout defense in the Baltimore Ravens. So let the fun begin Sunday! There are 13 games on the Sunday main slate, and […]
It’s Power 5 time! This is Week number 3 in college football and some top-tier teams are exactly who we thought they would be and others have floundered. Arizona is one of the main teams that comes to mind. The Kevin Sumlin era with the Wildcats is off to a big thud, including fantasy production […]
Week 1 is in the books! It’s fantastic to know we can just absorb and think about NFL and fantasy football through January. I absolutely love it. No other DFS sport is more fun to try and piece together like a puzzle.
If you missed last week, we’ve divided what used to be the Value Index into two separate takes for daily fantasy football.
We have the Cash Game Index, which will be graded by our DO staff, and the GPP Index, where we take a look at contrarian and pivot plays from chalkier players.
Writing that second one is going to tough this week, just saying.
A feature of the Cash Game Index is to review my cash game lineup from DraftKings the previous week, then get to our plays for the current one. I will open up some of the plays for the week, but moving forward, you will need a monthly subscription to access the full slate of picks!
Let’s review Week 1. Below is my cash game lineup, using only plays in last week’s Cash Game Index.
Cash Game Lineup Week 1
Analysis: My biggest qualm this week was playing James Conner. I didn’t and quickly regretted it early on. But when I locked in this lineup, I didn’t feel I needed Conner to do well and I was indeed correct. I was back and forth between DJ/Kamara/Conner with A.J. Green and this lineup. I loved Gordon and CMC for weeks, so I stuck to my guns instead of allowing the Tinker Fairy to get the best of me. I think this is most points I’ve ever scored in a cash game, that I can recall. But it was a sweat to get here and I finished middle of the pack in those contests.
Week 2 still offers some flexible/soft pricing, but the value might be a little more difficult to come by. We also have to keep in mind about Hurricane Florence. Her current path doesn’t seem to affect Florida, but it could in Atlanta. Only when it makes landfall on Friday and check on its status each day will we really know what to expect in that area. The Carolinas and Virginia are going to get hammered, but Carolina will be in Atlanta this week.
Another thing to consider are the Los Angeles Chargers traveling West to East for an 11 a.m. game in Buffalo’s home opener. I hate these scenarios because history shows that teams in this travel pattern typically struggle. However, they are playing Buffalo who the Ravens easily manhandled. The Chargers have a much better offense than Baltimore, but it will take some difficulty for me to consider any offensive weapons. Melvin Gordon might be the only guy I want to use based on volume. I expect them to be chalky, but other than LAC’s defense, I don’t think I can trust them in cash games this week.
So who can I trust for cash this week? Hopefully just enough to get us to the cash line once again!
Now let’s take a look into Week 2!
QUARTERBACKS
DeShaun Watson – Houston Texans – $6,300
Analysis: You can spend down at QB this week in all lineups. This might be the cheapest we see Watson all season. Marcus Mariota’s availability may determine my exposure to Watson in cash. Either way, he’s got rushing upside and one of his weapons is my favorite play of the entire slate. Can you guess who? For what it’s worth, Tennessee gave up 2 TDs through the air to Ryan Tannehill.
Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs – $6,100
Analysis: After one game, Mahomes (my boy) looks like the real deal, lighting up the Chargers for 256-4. Mahomes has rushing upside and raises his floor if needed, but he doesn’t run unless he has to. Love this Chiefs/Steelers game to shoot. There isn’t a player Pittsburgh has to shutdown Tyreek Hill.
Jimmy Garoppolo – San Francisco 49ers – $6,000
Analysis: Yea, he had a rough first game against Minnesota. Jimmy G needed to lose a game as a starter. Now the Niners return home and draw the Lions who were absolutely torched by the Jets for 48 points. Jimmy G may not have his favorite weapon in Marquise Goodwin, which might hurt Jimmy G’s upside, however Dante Pettis looks pretty good if Goodwin is out. Niners run tons of plays and there are plenty of weapons that can shred the Lions.
Tyrod Taylor – Cleveland Browns – $5,900
Analysis: Bad weather conditions abound, Tyrod and the Browns almost pulled off the upset of the Steelers. The Bucs already pulled off the big upset in New Orleans against the Saints. Now the Browns come to town and get a chance to do it again. Recency bias will draw ownership to Tyrod and all of his weapons against the Saints, who were lit up by Ryan FitzMAGIC in Week 1. I think I am talking myself on Tyrod in cash as I type….
Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons – $5,700
Analysis: I hate Matt Ryan. He’s so overrated and doesn’t look for Julio Jones enough, which is hard to believe considering Julio had double-digit catches and over 100 yards in their opener. This play is me price enforcing a situation where the Panthers dominance over the Cowboys will be skewed. Ryan put up two of his best performances against Carolina last season, scoring more than 20 points in each matchup. Ryan has a full force of weapons, including Devonta Freeman, and adds Calvin Ridley to his arsenal.
This has been a very busy week in DailyOverlay land.
We’re finishing up baseball, pumping out NFL content and we have college football to boot.
So due to time constraints, this week only, I am mixing both the morning and evening slates into one.
We will have five quarterbacks, five running backs and five wide receivers mixed in from both slates. After this week, I’ll separate them into each slate.
But, isn’t it nice to have college football DFS in all its glory?
Things didn’t pan out so hot in Week 1, but that’s OK. I feel like this year is a rebuilding year for a lot of teams and we will start to see the usage and stars emerge while quarterback and running back committees will take shape and who is receiving the most target shares in the passing game.
It’s a process, and we will certainly get there.
So on to Saturday’s slate of games!
Quarterbacks
Khalil Tate – Arizona – $10,400 – Early
Analysis: Tate and the Wildcats were in a tough contest last week, but now they get a Houston squad that struggled against Rice of all teams. This game is projected to be the highest scoring game on the early slate and Tate is a legit Heisman candidate. The numbers may not show last week, so the upside is still to come.
Nick Fitzgerald – Mississippi St. – $10,200
Analysis: Fitzgerald enters the show after a one-game suspension. His first crack at stuffing the stat sheet comes early Saturday morning as the Bulldogs draw the skeleton of Kansas State. The Wildcats gave up 257 yards through the air in their first match up against….South Dakota.
Kyle Shurmur – Vanderbilt – $8,400 – Early
Analysis: Kyle Shurmur and his experienced receivers get Nevada in one of the highest-projected games on the board.
Feleipe Franks – Florida – $7,800 – Late
Analysis: The late slate is tricky, but there’s some value here in dual-threat Florida QB Feleipe Franks. Kentucky isn’t a formidable opponent or defense.
Kenny Pickett – Pittsburgh – $6,800 – Late
Analysis; Another value QB is Kenny Pickett who draws a Penn State defense that allowed 292 passing yards to…Appalachian State in a near-miss.