Entries by Stephen Monahan

NBA Value Index – Nov. 1

I’ve been late-swapped a couple of times this year and now I have been bit by the early-foul trouble bug. Looking at you Malcolm Brogdon. Of course I faded Giannias and Westbrook and that actually worked out pretty well considering their ownership, their price and their down night of production. It could’ve been a very […]

NBA Value Index – Oct. 30

Sundays are some of the best days for sports, especially this time of year.

Not only did we have an awesome, one-of-a-kind Houston/Seattle NFL shootout, but we had an awesome Game 5 of the World Series.

Can the NBA give us anything like we saw yesterday?

Probably not, but the NBA has had a lot of competitive games thus far. Hopefully, we see some of the guys in our DFS lineups be part of some stat-stuffing performances.

Today’s picks are as follows:

Austin Rivers – PG/SG – Los Angeles Clippers – $4,900

Analysis: With Teodosic out, Austin Rivers has been putting his foot on the gas with the extra playing time. Rivers has played 33 minutes or more in the past four games and has put up 21 FP or more in his past three. With the extra shots to work with and facing Golden State in a pace-up game locks in RIvers as one of the top value plays on the slate.

JImmy Butler – SG – Miami Heat – $7,000

Analysis: Sometimes it takes a little while for new players and superstars to get acquainted and find a rhythm with a new team. Despite trolling us all last week with a late scratch due to illness, Butler was able to come back a couple of games late and show why the Timberwolves went out to get him. At $7K and an uncanny ability to rack up the box score with every DFS state imaginable, Butler is a high-upside talent at a cheap price. The Miami Heat have been getting torched by SGs and wing players so far this season, allowing 81.5 DK points per game to the position. I know this team has KAT and Andrew Wiggins to take shots, but you don’t need Butler to score 30 points per game to pay off salary.

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NBA Value Index – Oct. 27

Welcome into the Friday edition of the Value Index.

Tonight we have a smaller Friday night slate than usual with just 7 games on tap. For today’s Value Index, I am most certainly going to be focus on PF/C. There are a lot of great plays at these two positions tonight and I hope I can help you decipher why you should pick player A over player B, or something of that nature.

I don’t want to ramble on too much here, so I am going to go directly to today’s picks. Look around for the Weighted Consensus to see where the experts around the industry are looking at for roster construction.

Time to get started!

Nikola Jokic – PF/C – Denver Nuggets – $8,400 – 5x = 42 FP

Analysis: We have yet to see that ceiling game from the Joker this season. Last year it was 50-60 fantasy points nearly every night. He’s got a 47-point effort under his belt this season, but the production on this Nuggets team has been spread out so far. But the Nuggets get the Atlanta Hawks, a team full of role players that have played well so far. Jokic is an athletic big man that can run up and down the floor with anyone. The Hawks are one of the worst teams in allowing fantasy points to centers, 62.4 FPPG to be exact. There’s not a big man on this Atlanta team that can challenge Jokic down low or anywhere really. I can really see some easy boards for him and the team funneling some extra shots his way due to his matchup.

LaMarcus Aldridge – PF/C – San Antonio Spurs – $8,200 – 5x = 41 FP

Analysis: No Kawhi Leonard? Good. LaMarcus Aldridge leads the team in usage rate this season, a product of the absence of Leonard and even Tony Parker. He has a 30 percent usage rate, one of the best in the league. The Spurs are on the road tonight taking on the Orlando Magic, a team that typically struggles with power forwards and other big men. Orlando has allowed 51.8 fantasy points per game to PF this season and that is good for 9th in the NBA in FP allowed to the position.

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NFL Value Index – Week 8

The halfway point is upon us in the NFL with Week 8 kicking into gear.

Week 8 is going to be an interesting one. It’s a small main slate on most sites with all the byes, games on Thursday and Friday and the absences of Sunday and/or Monday night games.

A factor we have to consider for really the first time this season is a slew of rainy and windy football games. The following contests all have forecasted rain, high winds or both:

Chargers at Patriots

Cowboys at Redskins

Falcons at Jets

49ers at Eagles

For this reason, you won’t see many players listed as official picks at the end of this week’s Index; though based on the forecasts closer to lock, I will likely change my mind where the weather feels more favorable.

Keep that in mind this week with roster construction and follow the weather GOAT, Kevin Roth, on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates and a full Week 8 forecast. You’re welcome if you haven’t discovered him yet.

Let’s get to this week’s rankings (we will eliminate price and pretend weather isn’t a factor).

Quarterbacks

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Dak Prescott
  3. Drew Brees
  4. Matt Ryan
  5. Russell Wilson

Running Backs

  1. Melvin Gordon
  2. Ezekiel Elliott
  3. LeSean McCoy
  4. Devonta Freeman
  5. Mark Ingram

Wide Receivers

  1. Julio Jones
  2. A.J. Green
  3. MIchael Thomas
  4. Dez Bryant
  5. Keenan Allen

Tight End

  1. Rob Gronkowski
  2. Zach Ertz
  3. Jordan Reed
  4. Hunter Henry
  5. Jason Witten

Defense/Special Teams

  1. Philadelphia Eagles
  2. New Orleans Saints
  3. Cincinnati Bengals
  4. Seattle Seahawks
  5. Buffalo Bills

Top Stacks

  1. Dak Prescott/Ezekiel Elliott/Dez Bryant/Jason Witten
  2. Tom Brady/James White/Rob Gronkowski
  3. Carson Wentz/Alshon Jeffery/Zach Ertz
  4. Russell Wilson/Doug Baldwin
  5. Matt Ryan/Devonta Freeman/Julio Jones
  6. Andy Dalton/Joe Mixon/A.J. Green
  7. Drew Brees/Mark Ingram/Michael Thomas
  8. Jameis Winston/Mike Evans
  9. Tyrod Taylor/LeSean McCoy
  10. Derek Carr/Michael Crabtree

I am skipping fades and narratives this week as this slate is short, so really fading completely might not be the best idea and the biggest narrative this week is weather, which we already discussed. With that, let’s get down to business.

Russell Wilson – QB – Seattle Seahawks – $6,500

Analysis: Quarterback looks very strong on this slate. I think there are only a few quarterbacks that are just not even fathomable. But one guy that sticks out to me is Russell Wilson, who returns home to face the Houston Texans, whose defense has been inundated with injuries. A few plusses in Wilson’s favor this week; Houston is coming off a bye, they will be rest and ready to play. 2. Houston has been a more potent offense since DeShaun Watson has taken over the starting role. This uptick in production should give Wilson’s opponent a higher floor for points scored and keeping it close until the end. Lastly, the Seahawks can’t run the damn ball and the Texans are still a good team against it. As long as Watson doesn’t have a huge meltdown on the road against this defense, the Seahawks should be scoring points through the air via Wilson’s arm, which torched the New York Giants last week.

Joe Mixon – RB – Cincinnati Bengals – $4,700

Analysis: Joe Mixon is the squeaky wheel this week. After him and the rest of the Bengals running backs getting very little work in the second half of their loss to the Steelers last week, Joe Mixon came out and expressed his disappointment for not getting the ball in the second half. For whatever reason, the Bengals feel Jeremy Hill playing is necessary, but I think this is the week Mixon gets the work in a potential blowout. The Colts are on the road and are offensively trashy against good defenses. They have been gashed through the air and on the ground. I expect the Bengals to build a lead early and then handoff to their running backs, benefitting Mixon and hopefully Mixon only.

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NBA Value Index – Wednesday, Oct. 25

I won’t go on another rant about how I hate no late swap on DraftKings… But I hate no late swap…thanks Jimmy Butler. Also, insert facepalm for Anthony Davis…so it begins. Tonight we have a nice 10-game slate with James Harden, Russell Westbrook, LeBron, Steph and KD all to choose from ithe top-tier of players. […]

NBA Value Index – Monday, Oct. 23

So how are you all liking DraftKings’ no late swap feature for NBA?

Yea, I hate it. Sure, there are people that love it and many who don’t.

Honestly, NBA is the one DFS sport I feel needs to always have a late-swap option.

No late-swap in NFL, no big deal. I think the games are close enough together that you would likely know who is in and out before noon. Not always, but most of the time. So there would only be 4-5 games you would have to worry about because you would know the noon games’ starters before lock.

MLB? No late swap would be perfectly ok. Sure, there are some late scratches, and as long as it wasn’t a pitcher, it’s not going to completely kill your lineup. A zero from your bats in MLB is by no means a lineup killer.

But the NBA is different. Game start times are a lot like baseball, but starting lineups are submitted sometimes just minutes before a game. It’s really not all that official and can change even right before tip. In baseball, lineup cards are submitted way in advance of the start of the game, so you have an idea of at least who is projected to start a game.

Because of the volatility in the NBA, I just think it benefits DraftKings to be a late-swap format. FanDuel and FantasyDraft are the other big guns in this business and neither offers late swap, and that’s fine. Sure, there is a late swap feature on DraftKings, but it’s garbage. The contests are small, the rake is high and they suck.

And if DraftKings isn’t going to offer big contests in the late swap function, then it needs to adapt a way to show projected starters much like in MLB, PGA, NHL and NASCAR. There’s nothing wrong with giving its users a one-stop place for starting lineups. Searching twitter, paying for the starters and relying on other outside sources takes time and isn’t always reliable. The NBA wants to support DFS also, so they also should join in and require coaches to submit lineups at least 30 minutes before tip.

Anyway, that’ s my rant for today, I imagine you have probably just skipped to the picks anyway, right?

Remember, today begins the Index’s premium availability. I will provide some freebies, but you must subscribe to see the full list. By signing up, you will have access to this and all other content available on our site!

Let’s get on with the show!

George Hill – PG – Sacramento Kings – $5,100 – 5x = 25.5 FP

Analysis: In two competitive games this season, George Hill has played 30+ minutes. But the Kings got blown out in Denver and HIll put up a huge dud. But this is a bounce back spot for him and the Kings going up against the hapless suns who are so far allowing the most fantasy points per game to point guards. Lonzo Ball and Damian Lillard have shredded this disaster of a team already, so I expect Hill to be able to pay off his price tag easily. I don’t think the Kings are a world beater either, so hopefully the Suns can keep this close for at least 3 1/2 quarters.

Malcolm Delaney – PG/SG – Atlanta Hawks – $3,000 – 5x = 15 FP

Analysis: Malcolm Delaney is so unknown that there aren’t any gifs for him, so here’s one of Kent Bazemore, one of his teammates. This play is strictly based on the absence of Dennis Schroeder, who is not expected to play tonight against the MIami Heat. Delaney should step right in to this rebuilding roster and log as many minutes as he can handle. He’s the bare minimum price and opens up your lineup construction. He’s strictly a price point play.

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NBA Value Index – Oct. 20

I think I am still tilted over the Marquese Chriss usage and minutes Wednesday night. I am certainly going back to the well, but he isn’t making the Index today. But let’s talk about coach Earl Watson. He made the decision to use a rookie Josh Jackson and TJ Warren in the starting lineup and […]

NFL Value Index – Week 7

Welcome to Week 7 where the one game looked to have a lot of points scored has rain in the forecast and no Aaron Rodgers.

Seriously, I am not a fan of this week’s slate, and maybe that comes at a perfect time because I am a single dad once against this weekend and my volume may be limited to tournaments only.

DraftKings continues to take away the Sunday night game as well, thus making this week’s slate that much more craptastic. There are a lot of low totals, injuries and potential poor quarterbacking on the horizon.

So this intro is going to be short and sweet in that regard and we will now get to this week’s rankings, all based on matchup not pricing.

Oh, and screw you Amari Cooper…

Quarterbacks

  1. Drew Brees
  2. Marcus Mariota
  3. Dak Prescott
  4. Tyrod Taylor
  5. Cam Newton

Running Backs

  1. Le’Veon Bell
  2. LeSean McCoy
  3. Ezekiel Elliott
  4. Leonard Fournette
  5. Mark Ingram

Wide Receivers

  1. Antonio Brown
  2. Mike Evans
  3. Michael Thomas
  4. Dez Bryant
  5. Jordy Nelson

Tight Ends

  1. Delanie Walker
  2. Jimmy Graham
  3. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
  4. Evan Engram
  5. Hunter Henry

D/ST

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars
  2. Minnesota Vikings
  3. Buffalo Bills
  4. New Orleans Saints
  5. San Diego Chargers

Top Stacks

  1. Dak Prescott/Ezekiel Ellott/Dex Bryan
  2. Le’Veon Bell/Antonio Brown
  3. Drew Brees/Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara/Michael Thomas
  4. Marcus Mariota/Delanie Walker
  5. Carlos Hyde/Pierre Garcon/Greg Kittle
  6. Brett Hundley/Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams
  7. Tyrod Taylor/LeSean McCoy

Top Fades

  1. Melvin Gordon
  2. Rishard Matthews
  3. Todd Gurley
  4. A.J. Green
  5. Adrian Peterson (tournament only)

 

Jared Goff – QB – Los Angeles Rams – $5,800

Analysis: It took me awhile to come around on a quarterback that gives me that excited feeling. I could’ve followed the noise out there this week with Brett Hundley and Marcus Mariota, but I am not. DeShone Kizer seems interesting and I was first on Tyrod Taylor earlier in the week. But I’ve found a love for Goff this week against Arizona. I am a little worried this game is in London, but the Rams hung around in Jacksonville after their win so that travel wouldn’t be as difficult or taxing going overseas. I like that. I also like that the Cardinals are having to travel a further distance to get to London. Now why Goff? Patrick Peterson exists and likely shadows Sammy Watkins, leaving Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp plus Todd Gurley to catch a lot of passes. The Cardinals are a tough team against the run and I feel this is a game script where Goff will need to throw to move the chains consistently. And despite the presence of Peterson, the Cardinals have been awful against the pass. The Cardinals are 29th in pass defense against fantasy quarterbacks, giving up yardage and TD totals of 304 and 4 and 351 and 3 the past two weeks against Carson Wentz and the Jameis/Ryan Fitzpatrick combo. Goff is a cheap option you can pivot off of Hundley, who I like, but might be battling rainy conditions, Kizer and Taylor. The weapons are kind of a drag but I like Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to get funneled targets due to Patrick Peterson shadow coverage on Watkins.

LeSean McCoy – RB – Buffalo Bills – $7,400

Analysis: To keep a season-long team afloat after I lost OBJ, I traded for McCoy due to his very favorable schedule starting this week against the Bucs, who were just shredded by a poor offensive line and a skeleton of Adrian Peterson. My affinity for McCoy does come with hesitation as one wrong cut and Shady is out with an injury. But we can’t worry about that because McCoy is my No. 1 overall play this week against Tampa. Tampa may return some key run stoppers, so that’s something to keep an eye on, but with his target share coming out of the backfield, McCoy offers a high floor at a cheap price. This season Tampa has allowed 3 teams to go over 100 yards rushing and they haven’t even played anyone yet. Tampa has faced Chicago, Minnesota (with Dalvin Cook), the Giants, New England and Arizona. So outside of Cook and possibly an Adrian Peterson outlier, this team has allowed yards to be gained against poor rushing attacks. And at 24.2 points allowed per game and positive touchdown regression headed Shady’s way, I am going to be nearly all in this week.

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NBA Value Index – Oct. 18

Five minutes into the start of the NBA season, and we already have a major injury. If you didn’t see Gordon Heyward’s injury last night, you can obviously find a clip anywhere, but if you can’t handle watching something so gruesome, just know that ankles are made to bend that way. Turrible. Oh but hey, […]

NFL Value Index – Week 6

Despite it being a very profitable DFS week for your ol’ pal Hotdog, I couldn’t help but desire to beat my head into a damn watching week 5 from start to finish.

I felt tilted all day.

No, not only because my favorite team, the Dallas Cowboys, took the pedal off the gas, threw a late INT for TD and lost another heartbreaker to the Packers.

But because the Steelers threw 50 times against one of the best secondaries in the NFL and Big Ben, for the first time ever, threw 5 INTs in one game.

The fact that it’s almost common knowledge, whether you look at stats or game film, that the Jags can’t stop the run. Meanwhile, the Steelers have the best uninjured RB in the league and let him catch 10 passes instead of controlling the clock, running the ball and keeping the turnovers at a minimum.

Also tilting? Losing OBJ for the season in multiple season-long leagues.

But what’s worse? The Giants’ lost Sterling Shepard, Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Harris. Marshall and Harris are out of the year.

And Evan Engram didn’t have one GD catch!

Charcandrick West – 2 catches, 2 TDs.

Cole Beasley – 2 Red Zone TDs

DeVante Parker – injured

Jay Cutler – still has a job even though he’s checked out.

Melvin Gordon, who I wrote up last week, but didn’t play enough (my fault), goes ham.

Tavon Austin got 9 rushes, Todd Gurley fails miserably.

I mean, this list is ridiculous and I know I am missing plenty more.

It’s football, I get it, but the past two weeks for injuries has been absolutely brutal. It makes Week 6 look ugly and I can’t say that I haven’t had a thought or two about how these injuries affect the quality of DFS play.

I hope we can avoid major injuries to the league’s superstars for a few weeks, or the rest of the season for that matter, because the product is going to suffer greatly.

And then people not affiliated with the NFL will take credit for a decline in ratings…

But I digress. It’s Week 6, there are plenty of byes, there are plenty of great players to choose from and some solid games to make DFS rosters from.

Before this weeks’ core picks, here’s this week’s rankings:

Quarterbacks

  1. Drew Brees
  2. Aaron Rodgers
  3. DeShaun Watson
  4. Matt Ryan
  5. Kirk Cousins

Running Backs

  1. Kareem Hunt
  2. Le’Veon Bell
  3. Todd Gurley
  4. Devonta Freeman
  5. Mark Ingram

Wide Receivers

  1. Julio Jones
  2. Antonio Brown
  3. DeAndre Hopkins
  4. Keenan Allen
  5. Larry Fitzgerald

Tight Ends

  1. Jordan Reed
  2. Rob Gronkowski
  3. Hunter Henry
  4. Travis Kelce
  5. Ryan Griffin

Defense/Special Teams

  1. Washington Redskins
  2. Baltimore Ravens
  3. Atlanta Falcons
  4. Arizona Cardinals
  5. Houston Texans

Top Stacks

  1. Matt Ryan/Devonta Freeman/Julio Jones
  2. DeShaun Watson/DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller
  3. Ben Roethlisberger/Le’Veon Bell/Antonio Brown
  4. Kareem Hunt/Tyreek Hill
  5. Kirk Cousins/Jordan Reed
  6. Derek Carr/MIchael Crabtree/Amari Cooper
  7. Philip Rivers/Melvin Gordon/Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams

Top Narratives

  1. Tom Brady’s Shoulder
  2. Ben Roethlisberger coming off a 5 INT game
  3. Saints RB situation after trade of Adrian Peterson
  4. Carson Palmer and Cardinals playing at home
  5. Jets RB situation
  6. Drew Brees’ performances coming off a bye
  7. Redskins/Texans/Falcons/Patriots in potential blowout spots
  8. Eric Ebron squeaky wheel

Top Fades

  1. Leonard Fournette
  2. Tom Brady
  3. Le’Veon Bell
  4. Rob Gronkowki
  5. Mike Evans
  6. MIchael Thomas
  7. Jordy Nelson
  8. Stefon Diggs
  9. Case Keenum
  10. Chris Hogan

 

DeShaun Watson – QB – Houston Texans – $6,700

Analysis: Quarterback is tough this week. Watson has been fantastic and his price is starting to creep up there. I want to pay down at quarterback, but there just don’t seem like a ton of options I would be comfortable with. Watson is the perfect cash game play, facing one of the worst pass defenses in the league but one of the better run defenses. It’s hard to say what Cleveland can do with so little weapons, but Texans’ defense lost J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus last week, big blows to this squad. Watson is the perfect cash game play. He’s got the matchup, the rushing floor and a price that allows you to still fit in a lot of the higher-priced players you might like. I hope he is this good and doesn’t come back to Earth for one more week.

Mark Ingram – RB – New Orleans Saints – $4,400

Analysis: No Adrian Peterson, getting work out of the passing game, facing a team that could keep it close, and doesn’t have a rushing touchdown – that’s all things that favor Mark Ingram this week. He’s super cheap and so far has scored 10-11 DK points each week. It makes me nervous, but being a home favorite with a higher floor due to involvement in the passing game, and in a game that could see a lot of points scored, this play makes since (especially a pivot off of McGuire). With shadow coverage from Slay on Thomas, I like the other pass catchers for the Saints, Ingram included. Also, positive rushing touchdown regression should start coming into effect soon, too.

Julio Jones – WR – Atlanta Falcons – $8,300

Analysis: Julio is my No. 1 player on my board. Should Miami figure out how to play football on offense, this would absolutely be a smash spot for Julio. With a layover from the bye, Julio’s had a chance to heal various knicks and bruises, including his hit. Julio at $8,300 is a ridiculous price and feels like the spot last year when he went off for 300 receiving yards. My only issue here is blowout, but hopefully Jones is part of the reason why the Falcons blow out the Dolphins. And I will be standing around smoking a cigarette, too, a la Jay Cutler.

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NFL Value Index – Week 5

Hard to believe we are already in Week 5 of the NFL.

Next thing we know, it will be Thanksgiving, then Christmas then the NFL playoffs and sadness.

I hope your start to NFL DFS has been awesome in 2017. Hopefully, our content at DailyOverlay has been a solid resource for you and we can continue to help you with your lineup builds.

Week 4 was a tough one for injuries: Dalvin Cook, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Ty Montgomery, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Chris Carson…

Injuries are a cruel portion of fantasy sports. They can turn a week sour in a hurry, but they also can help us with renewed opportunity the following week.

So while we stay close to our Twitter feeds and other fantasy notifications this week for injury news, we also have to play with the hand that is dealt to us for byes.

Week 5 also has some weather concerns, the biggest being a tropical system that could buzz by Florida come game time Sunday and cause high winds and rain.

There’s definitely one clear cut game the ownership is going to flock to and paying up for RB looks like the way to make optimal lineups.

Quarterback can provide some value and one of my picks might be considered a way off-the-board play, but we shall see.

With all of that said, we are going to rock and roll with rankings and then official picks.

Quarterbacks

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2. Dak Prescott
  3. Russell Wilson
  4. Carson Palmer
  5. Jacoby Brissett

Running Backs

  1. Le’Veon Bell
  2. Ezekiel Elliott
  3. Todd Gurley
  4. Melvin Gordon
  5. Christian McCaffrey

Wide Receivers

  1. Dez Bryant
  2. Jordy Nelson
  3. DeVante Parker
  4. Keenan Allen
  5. Randall Cobb/T.Y. Hilton

Tight Ends

  1. Zach Ertz
  2. Martellus Bennett
  3. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
  4. Jason Witten
  5. Delanie Walker

Defenses/Special Teams

  1. Pittsburgh
  2. Cincinnati
  3. Eagles
  4. Lions
  5. Cardinals

Top Stacks

  1. Aaron Rodgers/Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb
  2. Dak Prescott/Dez Bryant
  3. Jacoby Brissett/T.Y. HIlton
  4. Le’Veon Bell/Pittsburgh DS
  5. Melvin Gordon/Keenan Allen

Top Narratives

  1. Miami Dolphins first home game of 2017…in Week 5
  2. Pierre Garcon returns to Indianapolis
  3. Devin Funchess returns to Detroit
  4. Josh McCown returns to Cleveland
  5. Big Ben and Steelers at home
  6. Antonio Brown squeaky wheel
  7. Melvin Gordon squeaky wheel
  8. Cardinals traveling West to East
  9. Chargers traveling further West to East
  10. Both Chargers and Giants are 0-4

 

Josh McCown – $4,500 – NY Jets – $4,500

Analysis: McCown is from my neck of the woods in Texas and he’s been around the NFL for a long time. You might remember him getting clobbered in the clip above, but now the roles are reversed. McCown is with the Jets and is taking on his former team this week. The Browns have been the worst pass defense in all of football, surrendering fantasy points left and right. They have allowed at least 21 real life points in every game this season, and against quarterbacks, they have allowed passing TDs of 2, 2, 1 and 4 through the first four games. McCown has a bevy of capable pass catchers and gets to face his old team as well. Like I said, you may see it as off-the-board, but I see it as an easy punt play, even in cash games.

Melvin Gordon – RB – San Diego Chargers – $6,000

Analysis: This is a very interesting spot for Melvin. His price has come way down, he’s seen barely any carries and touches the past few weeks, voiced his concerns for lack of touches and gets to face a run defense that has been weak in stopping the run. I don’t ever like Melvin Gordon because I feel like he’s not that good of an RB and he is capable of doing Melvin Gordon type things (like the past two weeks). The Giants have allowed 142 yards rushing per game and are not the defense we thought they would be this season. I like this game overall and it has sneaky shootout potential.

Christian McCaffrey – RB – Carolina Panthers – $5,700

Analysis: I have a lot of love for McCaffrey this season and some of it might be more than I need to through 4 weeks. I am literally chasing touchdown regression with CMC, but he has the upside to post a really big game even without a score. Le’Veon, Gurley and Zeke are the obvious RB plays to pay up for this week so it’s trying to find value at RB that will be important. I love this matchup for CMC because the Lions’ corners will take away Kelvin Benjamin, there’s no Greg Olsen and the Panthers are on the road. CMC was neutralized by Belichick’s scheming last week, but now he should be good to go against the Lions who have been getting eaten up by pass backs this season. Dalvin Cook was on his way to a hell of a game last week before his injury and before that, the Lions were gashed by the Falcons. Oh and this is a turf game for CMC.

DeVante Parker – WR – Miami Dolphins – $6,600

Analysis: Big Note to this recommendation: IF the winds are going to be a factor, rain as well, then I am way off Parker. He’s one of my favorite plays of the week except if Mother Nature rears her ugly head. Last week, we saw DeAndre Hopkins torch this Titans secondary and Cutler is a guy who likes to throw the ball and chick it down field. Parker is the guy that stretches the field for the Dolphins. Against opposing passing attack this season, the Titans are allowing 274 yards passing per game and the defense, through 4 games, has allowed 31 points per game. Cutler was indifferent about playing football last week and I could see this being a spot that Cutler would light up the world.

Dez Bryant – WR – Dallas Cowboys – $6,500

Analysis: Dez didn’t quite get there for us last week, but that was his easiest matchup of the season. Now he gets an even easier set up in what looks to be the potential highest scoring game of the week and he’s the same exact price. I will be locking in Dez 99.9% of all of my lineups. Against this Packers secondary, Dez should feast as long as he and Dak get on the same page. In three career games against the Packers, which have come within Mike McCarthy’s tenure, he has 33 targets with 21 catches, 248 yards and 2 TDs. Against the Packers in the playoff game last season, he had 9 of those catches on 12 of those targets for 132 yards and 2 TDs. Don’t think he can do it again at home on Sunday?

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NFL Value Index – Week 4

I can’t help but hear Nat King Cole’s “Unforgettable” playing over and over in my head after Week 3…

Brady remained the GOAT, but the Index’s picks were a disaster, and mostly chalky.

Jay Ajayi is dead to me, also. After the knee issue started coming up, I felt less and less comfortable, but I still played him in cash anyway. And he’s anything but a model cash game play – no passing work out of the backfield, inflated price, Jets’ first home game, Miami traveling west to east, Cutler is still their quarterback, and the end result was a mixture of those things.

But we move on to Week 4 and after this week, we can finally start to use more data in our research and selections – yards per game, points scored per game, points allowed per game, how defenses will lineup against receivers, DVOA, etc.

Also after Week 4, teams will have bye weeks so slates will be even smaller after DraftKings eliminated the Sunday Night game this week (a hot-topic among the DFS Twitterverse).

Before we get into picks, we will get to the positional rankings, top fades, top stacks and top narratives and so on.

BUT, I just don’t know how I can include tight end in any part of the Index this week. The position options suck outside of Gronk and we can’t use Kelce or Graham either. I mean looking at this thing, the value plays that stick out are Kyle Rudolph and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (the most overrated DFS TE ever), and I like Evan Engram as a contrarian play. Maybe Eric Ebron, Jason Witten is too expensive, Austin Hooper is unreliable, the Chargers have a Tight End by committee (TEBC for those of you wondering), Cameron Brate is in a great spot, but how many looks will he actually get with Mike Evans as the squeaky wheel?

There’s no Tyler Eifert, I am not chasing Marcedes Lewis’ production or Ben Watson’s. Zach Ertz is a good player, but his price is way too high. Jared Cook? No. Denver doesn’t have tight ends, Delanie Walker could be in play, but his health is an issue. I don’t like hamstring injuries for DFS, plus he’s facing Houston on the road after the Titans had a big win at home against the Seahawks.

I don’t play Charles Clay, Ed Dickson is Ed Dickson, and George Kittle is a GPP dart throw along with Jermaine Gresham, Ryan Griffin, Jesse James (also hurt), David Njoku and O.J. Howard.

Tight end is a mess. I might just go all Gronk because he is the only elite option on this slate, in my opinion.

Anyway, I spent way too much time on the tight end. Time for rankings and picks. Good luck in Week 4!

Quarterbacks

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Matt Ryan
  3. Dak Prescott
  4. Trevor Siemian
  5. Philip Rivers

Running Backs

  1. LeSean McCoy
  2. Ezekiel Elliott
  3. Dalvin Cook
  4. C.J. Anderson
  5. Le’Veon Bell

Wide Receivers

  1. DeAndre Hopkins
  2. A.J. Green
  3. Julio Jones
  4. Odell Beckham, Jr.
  5. Dez Bryant

Defense/Special Teams

  1. Arizona Cardinals
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars
  3. Denver Broncos
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers
  5. Baltimore Ravens

Top Stacks

  1. Dak Prescott/Ezekiel Elliott/Dez Bryant
  2. Tom Brady/Brandin Cooks/Rob Gronkowski
  3. Matt Ryan/Devonta Freeman/Julio Jones
  4. Joe Mixon/A.J. Green
  5. Trevor Siemian/C.J. Anderson/Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders
  6. DeShaun Watson/DeAndre Hopkins
  7. Philip Rivers/Keenan Allen

Top Fades

  1. Antonio Brown
  2. Le’Veon Bell
  3. Todd Gurley
  4. Melvin Gordon
  5. Mike Evans
  6. Stefon Diggs
  7. Amari Cooper
  8. DeMarco Murray
  9. Carson Wentz
  10. Jason Witten

Top Narratives/Storylines

  1. Cam Newton failed against Saints, cheapest price ever, faces even worse defense in New England
  2. Tom Brady at home
  3. DeShaun Watson making first home start of the season
  4. Ben Roethlisberger on the road
  5. Todd Gurley called win over Cowboys after SF win
  6. Cardinals at home vs. San Fran
  7. Baltimore and Jacksonville playing after overseas trip to London
  8. Melvin Gordon questionable
  9. Giants/Chargers/49ers only teams without a win

 

Dak Prescott – QB – Dallas Cowboys – $6,200

Analysis: 22, 17 and 17. Those are Dak’s DraftKings point totals through the first three weeks. Facing the Rams, who have allowed 27 and 39 points in back-to-back weeks, Dak and the Cowboys head home after getting right against the Cardinals on the road Monday night. It is a shorter week, but I am not worried. Dak has been a model of consistency and could be on pace to improve his fantasy performances in his sophomore season. I am a Cowboys’ fan myself and this is the first matchup I have loved for them this season. I think DZD (Dak, Zeke, Dez) is a great 3-man stack here as the Rams gave up 39 points to the 49ers just last week. Dak has some extra floor with his rushing upside, though he isn’t a run-first quarterback.He’s very consistent and can easily reach 3-4 value each week due to his depressed price.

DeAndre Hopkins – WR – Houston Texans – $6,400

Analysis: Now I hate that Will Fuller is back, but I am not going to let that sway me from my initial feelings of excitement earlier in the week. DeShaun Watson peppers Hopkins with targets and Watson is making his first home start. Hopkins has target totals of 16, 13 and 8 in the first three weeks, he’s only found the end zone once. Now the Texans get a chance to redeem an embarrassing loss at home in Week 1. The Titans allowed 364 passing to the Seahawks last week and 250 yards passing in Week 1. At this price and with his target share, Nuk is a cash game lock for me.

Dalvin Cook – RB – Minnesota Vikings – $6,500

Analysis: Workhorse back? Check. Gets passing game work out of the backfield? Check. Value price? Check. Facing a defense that finally faced a good running back and failed? Check. Detroit can’t stop the run and has a difficult time with chasing around backs that get passes out of the backfield. Cook is clearly one of the top rookie RBs this year and he looks to be one of the better cash game options this week.

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