Entries by Stephen Monahan

NFL Value Index – Week 14

Week 13 was a slate chock full of receiver value. Being able to utilize that value allowed you to pay up for the top RBs easily, and if you did that, you likely were profitable.

I started to look at things differently last week, and it was a so-so effort as far as my picks were concerned. I provided some great picks and some duds, and could’ve done a better job at narrowing the field, but there was so much I liked. Truthfully, I think my viewpoint on many of my plays was a cash-game way of thinking, and not as much of a tournament way of thinking as many of my plays were middle of the road as far as output. If you played many of them in cash, you would’ve likely made money (assuming you were smart and didn’t over think Le’Veon and David Johnson).

I can say play Le’Veon, DJ and Elliott each week, but come on, if you NEED me or someone else to tell you that, then maybe you need to freshen up on your NFL DFS strategy. I am not going to cop out just to get an easier grading total. I’ve been that way with baseball and college football in the past. It does me no good in helping you if I tell you to play the obvious guys. I want to help you find guys to build around the more obvious plays. Anyway…

Week14 isn’t really much different than last week – top flight RBs with great matchups, but there’s a few differences on this 14-game slate.

  1. The receiver value isn’t as clear cut in my opinion. But if we get some late injury news, then it could open up some much needed value at the position.
  2. Pricing – I feel many players are priced up or at their current or projected production with the exception of some guys i can’t pull the trigger on and the picks I am providing below.
  3. I wish I could just pick David Johnson and Le”Veon Bell each week, that certainly would help my current ranking in the Expert Standings. Boy are those guys ridiculously good and useful.
  4. Lots of divisional/defensive games. Divisional games, especially the second-time through, typically result in lower game scores. There’s lots of teams with good offenses that look like they are facing tough defenses on paper. And we also have a couple of games to think of differently because of potential weather conditions.

Overall, I think this a tougher slate to break down outside of the top guys. There also aren’t any sure fire quarterback plays this week, but surely Brees can’t go 0-fer in the touchdown department again can he?

Anyway, I won’t ramble on any longer like last week when I eloquently discussed sock laundry basketball….let’s get to the picks!

Remember, this write up is premium content, so if you have been on the fence about becoming a premium member, just click this link and take the dive!

Aaron Rodgers – QB – Packers – vs. Seattle Seahawks – $6,400

Analysis: If there’s a lock at quarterback for cash games (and even a great tournament play), it’s Aaron Rodgers. I understand there may be some weather issues, but even in bad weather last week against a good pass defense, Rodgers nearly got to 20 points. I don’t think the weather is going to be near what we saw this week (but hey, I am not a weatherman either), but from what I have read so far, forecasts don’t appear to have as much snow during game time. Of course that could all change, so watch the weather closer to lock. But this price for Aaron Rodgers at home in a cold-weather game is ridiculous.I know it’s Seattle, but I think this defense’s stats are skewed this season. Here’s the quarterbacks Seattle has faced through 12 games: Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Tyrod Taylor, Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston and Cam Newton. I think we would all agree that half of these contests are against woeful QBs, three of which aren’t even their team’s starters anymore. The rest are against talented/veteran/elite Qbs. I put Tyrod, Jameis, Palmer, Cam, Ryan and Brees in this category. So against the scrubs, Seattle has allowed 186 yards passing per game and a measly 13.8 points per game. In the games against the other group, Seattle is allowing 263 yards passing per game and 17.9 points per game. On the road against the veteran/elite/talented QBs, Seattle’s pass defense has allowed passing totals of 311 (Palmer), 252 (Brees), 304 (Brady) and 182 (Cam). The Packers don’t have a running game and Rodgers is going to throw, throw, throw against a defense that is hobbled and just lost safety Earl Thomas. This game’s total is at 48 points and is going to have a playoff feel. Give me Rodgers over all of the elite-priced QBs this week.

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December 8 by

NFL Expert Consensus Podcast – Week 13

We are back are a week-long hiatus due to the Thanksgiving holiday. We hope you had a great turkey day filled with food, football, family and fantasy (not in that order). It’s Week 13 in the NFL and the season is sadly and quickly coming toward a close. But we still have time to build […]

December 3 by

NFL Value Index – Week 13

Every Sunday is laundry day. I wake up, play around on my phone while my wife feeds our daughter as to gather myself, and then we put together a grocery list. Sunday also is grocery store day. But before I trek to the store in the morning, I throw in my wash, start it up […]

December 1 by

NFL Value Index – Thanksgiving and Week 12

It’s hard to believe my favorite holiday of the year is nearing its arrival. It’s hard to believe because Thanksgiving 2015 was by far the most memorable of my life and it feels like it was yesterday. If you have followed my writing for some time, you know I have a daughter, and this weekend […]

November 23 by

NFL Expert Consensus Podcast – Week 11

Welcome back to the NFL Expert Consensus podcast for Week11 in the NFL. Matt is back this week and we breakdown this week’s 12-game slate where potential chalk includes Kirk Cousins, Le’Veon Bell and Martellus Bennett. Check out the rest of this week’s Industry Consensus. Good luck this week and Happy Thanksgiving! Go get that […]

November 19 by

NFL Value Index – Week 11

Tuesday afternoon brought upon somewhat of a somber feel to Cowboys fans, at least those who have loved Tony Romo since the day he claimed the starting job.

 

If you missed it, Romo delivered one of the classiest sports speeches you may have ever heard.

 

If you don’t feel like watching all of it, here’s the TL:DR (too long:didn’t read) version of his speech:

 

Tony: Today, I am putting an end to this QB controversy by passing the torch to Dak for the rest of the season and quite possibly forever. It hurts for me to admit that, but I want this team to keep playing well without distractions, even if it means I am no longer the starting quarterback ever again.

 

He didn’t say it in those exact words, but most of it was implied and he said it in a more eloquent manner.

 

You can tell in the video that he didn’t want to admit some of the things he said, but he did, and he did it with grace.

 

He is the epitome of sportsmanship.

 

For Cowboys fans who support Tony, it was a sad day. He’s going to go down as one of the greatest Cowboys’ quarterbacks in history. He has elite numbers and a myriad of fourth quarter comebacks.

 

Unfortunately, he doesn’t have that Super Bowl title. Even if he did, it probably wouldn’t be enough for the naysayers to change their tune.

 

I hope he does get that ring, and I hope it’s this year, with or without Dak.

 

It’s Week 11 and there’s lots of injury news to worry about leading up to lock. For that reason, you won’t see some of the following people: Tyreek Hill, Martellus Bennett, C.J. Prosise and Julian Edelman. if Gronk is out, Bennett and Edelman because great plays against the 49ers, but I don’t want to recommend them in hopes that Gronk sits. I really like Tyreek Hill if Maclin is out and Thomas Rawls might return (although maybe limited) this week. And if he does, monitor the word on Rawls’ usage by Pete Carroll and staff. Christine Michael was cut and picked up by the Packers and Rawls practiced in full Wednesday, so . i am just unsure of where to go here right now.

 

But speaking of running back: Le’Veon and DeMarco are obvious plays, but do they meet their price tag? SHOULD, but this is the NFL and they might have their quarterbacks throw 40 times anyway even though their defenses have trouble stopping the run (heres looking at you Bruce Arians).

 

With that said, i think there’s a lot of potential value at running back. So much, that I just don’t know who I will wind up on when I make my lineups this week. Here’s the shortlist of value plays I really like, but I don’t want to use them as official picks just to get one right. Consider these freebies (and I won’t be graded on them either) as I like them all in some way and also dependent upon what I see in practice reports and coach speak.

 

C.J. Prosise, Darren Sproles, Fat Rob Kelley, Carlos Hyde, Theo Riddick, Gio Bernard, Kenneth Dixon, James Starks, Duke Johnson, Todd Gurley, Paul Perkins and Dion Lewis. Tread lightly, but I would guess that at least three of these guys will be very useful as a value play.

 

I have kept a stranglehold on second place in the overall standings for quite some time, but the last couple of weeks have been down for the ol’ Value Index. Hopefully, we can turn things around this week! This is a premium content article, so please sign up to get full access to this and the rest of our paid content.

 

Good luck!

 

Blake Bortles – QB – Jaguars – vs. Detroit Lions – $5,400

 

Analysis: Your free pick of the week is Blake effing Bortles! This sounds like a throwaway, but remember, I am trying to persuade you to be a premium member! I wouldn’t purposefully give you a pick here that I didn’t think would be a solid, viable options. Now, am I saying you should play Bortles in a cash game. Um, no, but he is one of many cheap options I like this week. “Garbage Time” faces the Lions, who have given up at least 1 TD pass in every game this season. After putting up Browns-like numbers against QBs, Detroit has allowed just one TD pass in each of their last three games, but two of those three games were against poor offenses. Now, Jacksonville isn’t the greatest offense, but Bortles has 40 passes in each of his last 4 games and has added to his floor with some scrambling ability. He has multiple TD passes in 3 straight games and has been force feeding Allen Robinson for weeks (and more on that later).The offense might be clicking better with the recent firing of OC Greg Olson (who does not play for the Panthers).

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November 17 /1 Comment/by

NFL Expert Consensus Podcast – Week 10

Welcome back to another edition of the NFL Expert Consensus podcast. This week I tackle Sunday’s 12-game slate all by my lonesome. There are some interesting names on this week’s Expert Consensus, including one value play at QB that is picked over all other QBs. Next week we hope to have Matt or Brad join us […]

November 12 by

NFL Value Index – Week 10

So the controversy begins…

No, not regarding our newest elected president.

I mean, I was updating my phone every few seconds Tuesday night like I was sweating a Sunday Night NFL DFS tournament lineup, but I eventually had to pull away and get back to what’s really important — sports and fantasy sports.

But now the biggest storyline post-election, at least for sports fans, will be….

Dak?

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Or Tony?

ARLINGTON, TX - JANUARY 04: Tony Romo #9 of the Dallas Cowboys gestures against the Detroit Lions during the second half of their NFC Wild Card Playoff game at AT&T Stadium on January 4, 2015 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

Yes, I am not a football coach, and the argument can be made that you stick with the veteran in Romo.

I love Tony. Always have, always will. I will always defend his ability and I will always defend that he has received a ton of unwarranted criticism.

He’s a polarizing player for one of the most polarizing franchises in the NFL.

And he could come back this week against the Steelers and light the world on fire. Or he could sit out one more week. Or he could be active and not play.

Or he could be Dak’s backup.

Again, I am not a coach, but I firmly believe in not breaking anything if it isn’t fixed. I don’t understand why the Cowboys would want to ruin the run they have going.

You only fix things that are broken or are in need of repair, right?

Cabinet drawers.

Shower curtains.

Toilet handles.

Window panes.

Car dents.

iPhone screens.

Relationships.

Those are just a few things that always need to be replaced, repaired, mended, fixed, revamped or any other “repair” vocabulary word you want to insert here.

So why fix what isn’t broken at quarterback?

Dak isn’t 4-4 with a ton of turnovers and an obvious learning curve.

He isn’t 2-6 and perhaps a wasted of a 4th round draft pick.

He’s not a flash in the pan.

He’s also not undefeated, but he’s 2 points away from being 8-0 with the Cowboys.

What is Dak?

He’s 7-1

He’s the Cowboys record holder for passing.

He’s taking care of the ball well.

He’s a game manager.

He’s a leader.

He’s healthy.

When Tony Romo took over and led the Cowboys to a playoff loss to the Seahawks in the 2006 season, Dallas wasn’t doing very well.

They needed a spark, something fresh and something new, at the QB position. Fans back then wanted Romo to play because they knew there was something there. They knew he would be successful and that he would be the quarterback of the future. There was just something about him before he took over for Drew Bledsoe that fans knew he was going to be a natural. And he was, until 2015, when two major injuries sidelined him. And until 2016, two plays into the preseason when he got hit and suffered another major injury.

Four games, three major fractures for Tony the past two seasons, and really it all happened within one calendar year.

This is another situation where fans (even though we aren’t coaches) recognize what we have going for us. We aren’t dumb. We watch and love football because we have understanding of the game. We see what Garrett sees on the field. What Jerry sees on the field. We don’t get all of the behind-the-scenes access or all of the practice access, but what matters are the results on the field.

I told some friends that if Dak and the Cowboys beat Cincy, he should be the QB the rest of the year. But the narrative still feels like this is Tony’s team.

Now Dallas is coming off an easy win (not a letdown loss which happens sometimes with Tony teams) over the Browns and faces its toughest test to date – on the road in Pittsburgh.

I think the Cowboys can do plenty offensively to hang with the Steelers, but Big Ben, hurt or not, is always in play for fantasy at home. Dallas has chewed up time of possession, but hasn’t really had to play from behind much. It’s possible we see what happens to TOP and the number of plays the Cowboys run should they be trailing most of this game.

I have more to say on this game later on with my picks, but if Dak is the starter and goes into Pittsburgh, a tough, volatile environment like Green Bay, and wins, I don’t know how you go back to Tony when he’s healthy, if he’s healthy.

Anyway, I bet you are tired of reading anything that isn’t DFS related, so let’s go to the picks!

BUT before that, please note that this is premium content, so please join up to view the rest!

Cam Newton – QB – Panthers – vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $6,800

Analysis: I guess I could provide a free pick at a different position huh? Maybe in Week 11. So hey, the Chiefs have given up 13 touchdown passes to QBs in its last 5 games with multiple TDs coming in 4 out of those 5. I like plays from where you know the production is coming. It’s Cam in this offense and at $6,800 at home, this just seems too cheap to me for a guy with 40-point upside. Let’s not forget the Panthers are starting to play better and have two wins in a row and Cam is likely getting healthier and more comfortable coming back from his injury. Give me lots Cam.

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November 10 by

NFL Expert Consensus Podcast – Week 9

It’s Week 9 in the NFL and if you were at the mercy of Week 8’s disastrous output, then just know that this is a new week and the ship always gets righted. This is the NFL Expert Consensus podcast for Week 9 and Matt Butler is back after a two-week hiatus. If you haven’t […]

November 5 by

NFL Value Index – Week 9

Here’s how you probably think about Week 8….

 

 

Worst. Week. Of. 2016. For. Me.

Not just the Value Index, but in how my lineups performed. It was like watching JaMarcus Russell try to play quarterback.

Two weeks of futility means that something has to give, right?

Derek Carr did it in Week 8 (after two dud weeks in a row), and set a Raiders passing record along with putting his name in the elite of the elite for total passing yards in a single game.

He also helped a DFS’er from a competitor win $1,000,000. Congrats to him. I’ve heard nothing but compliments about how great of a guy he is, and I am glad that kind of money went to a good person.

So some thoughts once again on the previous week.

  1. T.Y. HIlton, Mike Evans, Brandon Marshall and Julio Jones combined for…well, not a lot of production, and  3 out of the 4 make great bounce back candidates (I don’t think TY’s hammy is healthy).

  2. The Browns broke their streak of futility for finally allowing less than 2 TD passes in a game.

  3. But the Browns let Matt Forte ball out, or go ham, or whatever you want to call it. Yea, lots of fantasy goodness there.

  4. Ezekiel Elliott gets the Browns in Week 9.

  5. Tom Brady and Gronk continue to love playing in Buffalo, Gronk’s hometown, continuing that narrative for next year.

  6. Jimmy Graham did not live up to his narrative storyline against his old team.

  7. Neither did Christine Michael. Well, he didn’t have a storyline, he just didn’t provide much production.

  8. Melvin Gordon had another productive outing, but against another team that gives up gobs of yards to running backs.

  9. Melvin Gordon gets his toughest test to date against the Titans who allow 82.5 yards per game and have given up only 3 rushing TDs.

  10. Mike Gillislee! We all meant to play him in Week 8 instead of Week 7, right?

We can dwell in the past or we can look ahead to our future, and I choose the latter. Week 9 will be here soon and it’s time to regroup, rebuild and reclaim (sorry, i kind of stole part of that saying from Seth Rollins).

Before I get into my picks, there are a few things you need to keep in mind this week. Injury news is going to be important this week, moreso than Weeks 7 and 8 even though injury situations really derailed many lineups.

But this week is a lot different. Because there is so much up in the air, I won’t be recommending the following players: TY Hilton, Matt Asiata, Jerrick McKinnon, Spencer Ware, Ben Roethlisberger, James Starks, Ty Montgomery, Randall Cobb, Steve Smith, Corey Coleman and Sammie Coates.

If any of these plays are playing or ruled out, it will have an immediate impact on the distribution of touches on their team. For example, I love Ty Montgomery this week, but only if he’s healthy, and if James Starks doesn’t return early. I love Randall Cobb, but would love Davante Adams if Cobb is ruled out.

Asiata and McKinnon aren’t really players I like to roster, but if McKinnon is out, that makes Asiata very playable. Spencer Ware had a concussion. I don’t like concussions and will not be recommending him either.

All in all, some of the plays above could be really great plays when Week 9 is over, I am just not going to recommend them here due to the volatility of injuries. I am tired of the Mike Gillislee’s and Shady McCoy’s of the world in 2016.

BUT (yes, there is a but!) I will have a couple of leverage plays below that i like based on injury news that I am willing to take a shot on.

If you haven’t yet, please review our premium content package and mull over joining us! I had a bad week in Week 8, but still hold second place spot overall. Definitely worth you joining to gain access to the rest of this week’s picks.

Dak Prescott – QB – Cowboys – vs. Cleveland Browns – $6,100

Analysis: My Cowboys are rolling! Six straight wins and part of that success can be attributed to this man right here – Dak Prescott. I know Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn’t continue the two-touchdown-or-more streak the Browns’ defense gave up to QBs, but Prescott is far superior to Fitzpatrick and has a better supporting cast. Joe Haden may help ease some of the defensive leakiness, but he’s not the Joe Haden of old. Dak is the starter against the Browns and I am hoping people aren’t on Dak due to the blowout factor and/or because they think Romo comes back, or because he’s now up to $6,100. Whatever the case may be, Dak has Dez back and Zeke continues to thrive behind one of the best OLs in the league. Dak also has rushing TD upside  and is certainly cash game safe with his consistency. The Browns allow 277 yards passing per game through the air as well, so don’t be afraid to fire up Dak with Dez stacks this week.

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November 3 /1 Comment/by

NFL Expert Consensus Podcast – Week 8

We are nearing the halfway point of the 2016 NFL season with Week 8 on the horizon. There are just 10 games this week on the main slate of games with 6 teams on a bye. As always, we breakdown our Expert Consensus in this week’s edition of the Expert Consensus podcast. Let us know what […]

October 29 by

NFL Value Index – Week 8

I for one am glad to see Week 7 of the 2016 NFL season come and pass.

Like Gandalf vs. the Balrog, I wanted to slam my staff into a concrete bridge and plummet to the abyss below.

If you have never seen the Lord of the Rings trilogy…well, one, you are crazy, and two, Gandalf the Grey defeats the demon Balrog, dies, then basically is reincarnated as Gandalf the White, saves the….ok, i”ll stop there.

Just know that I am looking toward Week 8 like I am Gandalf the White, ready to get back on my horse, ride into Helm’s Deep and kick some ass.

OK, you may not have seen (or read) the trilogy still (you should), but it’s awesome….and I am slowly realizing as I type this that it is now 15 years old.

Ok, enough LOTR talk, this is football not an adventure to Mordor (though I guess it could be if you are really failing miserably at DFS football right now and would understand you wanting to toss yourself into the fiery depths of the volcanic mountain).

Seriously now, moving on to football.

Some thoughts about Week 7 and Week 8…

  1. My cash games did not have Jack Doyle on DraftKings, but I scored 169 points.
  2. I did not cash in my cash games with that hefty amount of points…because I did not have Jack Doyle (could’ve).
  3. I did cash in my tournament with the aforementioned lineup (1 entry, large-field, $3 version).
  4. Jay Ajayi rushed for 200 yards in back-to-back games.
  5. Jay Ajayi is on a bye in Week 8.
  6. Kevin Hogan rushed for more than 100 yards.
  7. Who is Kevin Hogan?
  8. Kevin Hogan is a rookie quarterback out of Stanford, the Browns’ poor man’s Andrew Luck
  9. Josh McCown might return for the Browns in Week 8.
  10. Donte Moncrief should return in Week 8.
  11. Arian Foster will not return…ever. He retired after Week 7.
  12. In a keeper league, I kept Arian Foster over DeMarco Murray (WTF was I thinking????….no clue, seriously, not one damn clue).

Now we turn our focus (finally) to Week 8 where we have just 10 games due to 6 teams on a bye as a Thursday night, a Sunday morning (London) and a Monday night game take the other contests away.

I think DraftKings pricing is much tighter this week than in weeks past, though a particular RB injury opened a huge door for his backup (more on that later) and thus will allow some flexibility in lineup construction.

Also, this is premium content (sorry folks, but it’s worth the small fee, I promise), so I encourage you to sign up and take advantage of what we have to offer!

Good luck to you in Week 8. I hope you are able to bring home the dough and take down Sauron-like tournament (dammit, I couldn’t resist one more reference).


Ryan Fitzpatrick – QB – Jets – vs. Cleveland Browns – $6,200

Analysis: Stop laughing. Or snickering. Or rolling your eyes. Whatever your first thoughts are with this pick, hear me out. I know FitzMagic-less has been STRUGGLING and the Jets turned to him after Geno got hurt. But the Jets handed off to Matt Forte 30+ times and got the win. Now they travel to face the winless Browns who might get Josh McCown back this week. While Fitzy has not been good this season, I can’t see the Jets handing off to Forte 30 more times. Last time NY did that was in Week 2. The following week Forte got just 15 the next week and then carry totals of 15 and 12 the ensuing two weeks thereafter. The Browns have allowed a rushing touchdown in all but one game this year (and they gave up 271 yards on the ground to Cincy last week), but outside of that disastrous game, Cleveland had allowed more than 100 yards twice and has held DeMarco Murray and LeGarrette Blount in check. The Browns also have allowed just 159 total rushing yards at home this season. Where have the Browns been most consistent? Consistently bad stopping the passing game. In all games this year, the Browns have allowed 2 or more passing touchdowns and have allowed 300+ passing games in 4 games already. Will the streak of 2 or more TD passes continue this week? I say “hell yes!”

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October 27 by