Every Sunday is laundry day.
I wake up, play around on my phone while my wife feeds our daughter as to gather myself, and then we put together a grocery list.
Sunday also is grocery store day.
But before I trek to the store in the morning, I throw in my wash, start it up and then go shopping.
I love my shopping time. I get iced coffee with a couple of shots of espresso then I mosey on through the store. It’s generally quiet, and it’s dead. By dead, I mean the store is empty. It’s great. Sunday mornings are the time to shop for groceries. I don’t have to rush, I can think about my upcoming roster construction for the NFL slate and I don’t have to feel rushed.
When I am done, I come home, unload the groceries, eat breakfast and then it’s time for the little one to nap. By this time, it’s getting closer to kickoff and I start building my final lineups or make any last changes, or what happens a lot of the time is I tinker…and then I tinker some more and then I’ve busted my lineups.
But it’s still laundry day. After the first wave locks, I remember I need to switch my laundry to dry. And then I don’t get to it until after my daughter goes to sleep for the night.
What should take an hour and a half, takes me 10-12 hours to actually finish. But it’s the routine, and it’s laziness.
What’s the most lazy part of the whole laundry process?
Laundry sock basketball.
Yes, you’ve done this before. You open your sock drawer, fold your socks in pairs, then you shoot from the bed.
You think you can hit every shot each time, and if you are like me, you say some asinine saying in your head “if you make all of these shots, you will win a lot of money in your lineups today.”
It’s illogical to think that by making all of these shots, my lineups will all of a sudden go off, and it’s illogical to think the reverse is true.
So I go through the motions…the first shot? Swish. The second? Swish. The third? hits the “backboard” of the drawer and clunks in. Fourth? Swish. Fifth? Swish. By this time I get cocky and careless, thinking I’ve got the muscle memory down and boom. Right off the top of the drawer and on to the floor. My first miss. I concentrate again and sink the last two.
But that one damn pair of socks kept me from the perfect line.
The one time I had to get careless and lose focus, and now I have to go pick up the pair off the floor and place it in the drawer in disgust. And guess what? My lineups also busted.
There’s no direct cause-and-effect correlation between my sock-tossing accuracy and my lineups tanking.
But there is a common denominator – lack of focus.
Before Thanksgiving’s slate of games, I had about a 4-week tilt in my bankroll due to NFL daily fantasy. It all started with a 170 score in my cash games and missing the cash line. It was deflating. Now Thanksgiving and Week 12 were not very profitable, but I didn’t lose money like I had been.
I knew it was time to change the way I look at things this late in the season because I had lost focus. The same goes with my picks here on the Value Index. If you have been following, you’ve seen my picks slip and my hold on second place disintegrate. The VI is still sitting in third, but that’s not good enough.
This week and for the next coming weeks, my process for picks and roster construction will be different. Typically, I provide you picks of those who I think will meet value for their price, regardless if they are $3,000 on DraftKings or $9,000.
That’s not how this is going to work any longer.
Now my picks will be viewed as those that I feel are vastly underpriced based on recent performance and upcoming matchup. While I am still expecting these picks to make value, I am not just picking players that I like this week.
For example, here are the following players I think will come close or will make value this week: David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, LeSean McCoy, Jordan Howard, Devontae Booker, Spencer Ware, Eric Ebron, Travis Kelce, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan and Melvin Gordon.
While I like all of those players this week, I don’t think they are underpriced. They are exactly where they should be. Make sense?
Another addition to my process this week is providing you last week’s price and this week’s pricing on DraftKings. The price that has the
strikethrough is the Week 12 price and then we have this week’s price. Some prices are lower than last week, some are higher. Remember, this is all about looking at things differently and refocusing on value plays.
Good luck this week and I hope you find this to be useful. Hope you are flawless in your sock-tossing attempts.
As always, this is premium content with a free intro and freebie pick. If you wish to finish, you can become a premium member by visiting this link and signing up!
Good luck in Week 13!
Russell Wilson – QB – Seahawks – vs. Carolina Panthers –
$6,700 – $6,300
Analysis: Bounce back spots that are just oh-so-cheap starts with Russell Wilson. After strong play and up against a weak Bucs secondary, Wilson burst bubbles everywhere last week. But that just means we all get to feast this week as Seattle takes on a reeling Carolina team on Sunday Night Football. Having the late start all but assures that DangerRuss is lower owned than he should be. Luckily the Panthers aren’t out of the playoff hunt yet, which is good for us as they should play competitive on a big stage. Russ also had 80 yards rushing last week, proving even more that he’s healthy. Some home cooking should right the ship this week as the Panthers have allowed 22 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this year and with the Panthers playing a funnel defense by stuffing the run which leads to struggles in the secondary. Seattle is 5-0 at home this season with an implied total of around 26 points. Who do you think is going to account for all the TDs?
Jeremy Hill – RB – Bengals – vs. Philadelphia Eagles –
$3,900 – $4,300
Analysis: Thank goodness Jeremy Hill is OK. He went down awkwardly against the Ravens and left the game briefly. What looked like a potential horrific injury turned out to be much ado about nothing. And thank goodness Hill was playing the Ravens. I couldn’t play Hill at $3,900, but he would’ve been an awesome cash game play, hauling in 6 catches for 61 yards and finishing with 14.2 DK points. Now he gets a leaky run defense at home and it’s clear Hill is going to get all of the work out of the backfield (sorry, Rex Burkhead). Hill might be the chalkiest player on the board. The Eagles have allowed 51 receptions to running backs this season for 359 yards, but have allowed 5 rushing touchdowns and just three 100-yard games. Though this is an instance where Hill’s price rose, he’s still way too cheap for an every-down running back that can get you 2 touchdowns from the 1-yard line.
Julio Jones – WR – Falcons – vs. Kansas City Chiefs –
$8,500 – $8,700
Analysis: There are a lot of big boys that we can choose from this week. DJ, Bell and Brown are all priced above $9K while OBJ and Mike Evans fall in the $8K range. And so does Julio. In every game this year where Julio has had a low number of targets (7 against Arizona in Week 12), he’s had an increased amount of looks from Matt Ryan. Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas all kinds of success against this secondary. Taylor Gabriel has come out of nowhere recently to be a productive member of the Falcons receiving corps. But I don’t think his low number of snaps and production continue forever, and this just feels like a Julio eruption week. He has just 1 TD in his last 5 games and is facing the worst secondary in the league as far as fantasy points allowed to WRs is concerned having allowed 14 TD receptions to wideouts. Two of the Chiefs worse outputs were on the road at Denver and at Pittsburgh, giving up at least 3 TDs to the position in each game. Julio is far to underpriced against this juicy matchup.
Brandin Cooks – WR – Saints – vs. Detroit Lions – $6,400
Analysis: The Saints and Brandin Cooks almost did their best Eric Ebron Thanksgiving Day impression Sunday, except it was even worse. Cooks wasn’t targeted at all. Not once. Not a single pass went his way. Brees’ favorite home receiver was completely goosed. I loved Cooks last week in a home game where he’s thrived and he wiped out a lot of my teams. I understand Michael Thomas is good, but his price has soared and since Cooks wasn’t targeted at all, I am going to say that doesn’t happen again. Cooks is even cheaper this week and Thomas will certainly take all of the ownership. I thought I loved Cooks last week, but I love him ridiculously this week. The Lions’ numbers against wideouts is skewed. Since Week 8, the Lions have faced Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford with Diggs, Sam Bradford without Diggs and Blake Bortles. None of those quarterbacks are Drew Brees and none of those offenses are the Saints at home. Cooks is the squeakiest of wheels this week and he will be so low owned. Bold call – The winning Millionaire Maker lineup has Brandin Cooks.
DeAndre Hopkins – WR – Texans – vs. Green Bay Packers –
$6,300 – $6,000
Analysis: My case for Cooks above should contradict why I like Nuk, right? I mean, it should, but this price is just so low for a guy that has tremendous upside. The Packers defense has been shredded recently, giving up 9 TD passes in their past 5 games. I know it’s Brock Osweiler, but here are Nuk’s target totals the past 6 games from Week 12 to Week 6: 10, 6, 13, 7, 12 and 15. He has no TDs in that span. Osweiler is a bad quarterback, I get it, but something has to give for Nuk eventually. If it doesn’t happen this week, I don’t know if there is another chance the rest of the year.
Jarvis Landry – WR – Dolphins – vs. Baltimore Ravens –
$5,900 – $5,500
Analysis: I can’t believe I back to this point. The once always reliable slot receiver has been a run-of-the-mill receiver this season and that’s due to the emergence of Jay Ajayi. But there’s a myriad of signs for this being a Jarvis Landry week. 1. MIami’s offensive line injuries (and we aren’t sure if they return this week). Dolphins couldn’t get it going against San Fran of all teams, so the injuries certainly matter. 2. The Ravens have the best run defense in the league. I know Ajayi has bested some tough run defenses (or at least on paper) this year, but if the line isn’t healthy, I don’t expect Ajayi to do much of anything on the road. 3. DeVante Parker is hurt and may not play. If he does, he may be contending with Jimmy Smith (if he returns). 4. Miami doesn’t have a good tight end and Ravens are super stingy against the position….so where does Miami’s production come from? Baltimore is by far my favorite defense this week against Ryan Tannehill, but the way to attack Baltimore is in the slot where good receivers have been able to burn the Ravens this season. I can’t trust Kenny Stills and Parker would be hobbled if he plays. Landry is the No. 1 option in this offense this week and his price is super cheap.
Sammy Watkins – WR – Bills – vs. Oakland Raiders – $5,500
Analysis: We have a lot of receivers that can provide so much value this week. Sammy Watkins is another one of those players. Sammy looked explosive in a tough matchup with Jacksonville. This week his health should be improved and so should his snap count (35-40 is what is being reported). Smaller, speedsters are the receivers that have had more success than the bigger, speedy and/or possession receiver. But the Raiders lost David Amerson, so Watkins should have ample opportunity to face his backup. Watkins is at his cheapest price that he will be the rest of the year if healthy. Watkins will still be on a limited snap count, but he should be force fed the ball as the only receiver option for Buffalo.
Tyreek Hill – WR – Chiefs – vs. Atlanta Falcons –
$4,800 – $4,500
Analysis: It’s too early to tell if Jeremy Maclin plays, but I think TyFreak has earned a spot as a main cog in this offense. Desmond Trufant is headed to the IR, so the Falcons’ secondary is open game. Hill also returns kicks and blew up against Denver (although it wasn’t a lot of yards, he did score 3 TDs and had 9 catches thanks to his flexibility on the field). If Maclin is out, Hill might be a must play in cash games. He has ridiculous speed and a ton of targets the past three weeks, including double-digit looks on two occasions. I don’t know if there is anyone who can cover Tyreek, but it seems like the Chiefs should’ve rolled out this weapon long ago. I am surprised his price actually came down, but prices were released before his big game against Denver, so this is a great opportunity to jump on the train before the price skyrockets.
Marvin Jones – WR – Lions – vs. New Orleans Saints –
$4,100 – $4,400
Analysis: Typically we see drastic price increase in plum matchups. David Johnson, LeSean McCoy, Jordan Howard, Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees are a few names who saw increases in price due to matchup (and some because of production). While Jones’ price has increased $300, his price once was $7,600 this season, so the upside is there. For me, this is a miscalculation in price by DraftKings for a game in the SuperDome. Speaking of drastic price increase, Golden Tate is $6,200 this week after being just $5,600 last week and $5,300 the week before. I think this is a get right spot for Jones, who saw 10 targets last week against Minnesota. New Orleans has improved defensively this season, but it has allowed 10 TD catches to receivers this year, including 5 in the past 3 games. Seven of those TD receptions allowed came at home. Marvitron should be unleashed.
Brandon LaFell – WR – Bengals – vs. Philadelphia Eagles –
$4,600 – $4,300
Analysis: Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd switched spots in price this week, well almost. My point is Boyd was cheaper than LaFell last week and outproduced LaFell. This week Boyd is $4,800, but may not have the upside stonehands LaFell has. I can’t think of a time when I have ever wanted to roster LaFell, but the Eagles secondary is a mess and LaFell has the speed to bust one loose. Jordy and Davante Adams ate this secondary alive on the road and now the Eagles are on the road where they have struggled mightily. LaFell has 9 targets in his past two games and A.J. Green is not expected back. Philly has allowed 11 TD receptions to wideouts in the last 8 games, including 7 in the past 4 games, five of which were road games. I can’t say LaFell is a cash game play, but he’s at a reduced price that could blow the top off in tournaments at likely low ownership.
Dorial Green-Beckham – WR – Eagles – vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $3,000 (price didn’t change)
Analysis: Jordan Matthews is hurt and Nelson Agholor was a healthy scratch against Green Bay Monday night. Carson Wentz has not flashed much upside since the first couple of weeks of the season, but it looks like DGB is finally going to be unleashed. Had this game been Sunday afternoon, DGB would easily have seen a jump in price. But he played Monday night and had 10 targets and caught 6 balls for 82 yards. Preseason experts and collegiate experts have raved about DGB’s ability for awhile now, but the work ethic has never been there. Perhaps he’s shown enough to Doug Pederson to warrant freedom from the handcuffs. DGB has 18 targets in his past two games and has caught a TD. The Bengals secondary has allowed 11 TD catches to receivers this year and I expect the Eagles to be playing from behind in this one despite no AJ Green for the Bengals. Even if the Eagles aren’t playing from behind, their RB situation is a mess and I expect Philly to be throwing the ball 35-40 times. DGB is so cheap that he’s easily cash game worthy for me.
Jimmy Graham – TE – Seahawks – vs. Carolina Panthers –
$5,300 – $5,500
Analysis: Lastly, we have my favorite TE on the board. I can’t imagine Gronk playing this week nor do I think Jordan Reed will be that healthy. With a lot of value at receiver this week and a few value TEs, plus playing on Sunday night, Graham will be underowned more than he should. He faces one of the worst defenses against TEs. Three times this team has allowed 8 catches (Lance Kendricks being one of them) to TEs and have allowed 8 touchdowns. Graham is a redzone threat each week and is averaging 6.5 targets per game since Week 2. Russell and Jimmy are perfect Sunday Night hammers.