Entries by Stephen Monahan

MLB – Value Index – Friday, June 21

June is flying by quickly and summer is officially here.

Texas is going to be very hot again today as temps and heat indexes rise once again. It was very tolerable and somewhat comfortable temperatures most of this month, but then boom, prefaces of what’s to come in July, August and September arrived.

That means tonight’s game between the Rangers and White Sox will be one of the better hitting environments on today’s slate. We will get to them in a bit, but before that game and today’s recommendations, here’s the table of xFIPs for pitchers today (Baltimore not included). xFIP is listed first, then ERA is in parenthesis.

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Reynaldo Lopez – 6.56 (5.40)
2. Taylor Clarke – 6.41 (6.60)
3. Jeff Samardzija – 5.77 (4.50)
4. Brad Peacock – 5.62 (4.58)
5. Ariel Jurado – 5.62 (4.30)
6. Eric Lauer – 5.44 (5.40)
7. Sandy Alcantara – 5.40 (3.83)
8. Trevor Bauer – 5.45 (3.74)
9. Michael Wacha – 4.90 (3.75)
10. Tanner Anderson – 4.71 (7.20)

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Mike Leake – 5.51 (5.40)
2. Trent Thornton – 5.29 (3.68)
3. Reynaldo Lopez – 4.94 (7.12)
4. Michael Wacha – 4.91 (7.50)
5. Joe Musgrove – 4.83 (3.95)
6. Jakob Junis – 4.81 (4.60)
7. Chase Anderson – 4.62 (6.41)
8. Martin Perez – 4.59 (3.71)
9. Eric Lauer – 4.56 (4.34)
10. Griffin Canning – 4.49 (5.11)

And away we go!

PITCHERS

Aaron Nola – vs. Miami Marlins – $8,700

Analysis: I feel like I am really targeting the Marlins a lot, but it’s been working! Nola is priced $200 more than Mike Leake today, which is outright ridiculous! But the Marlins are still bad and much worse away from Marlins Park. They are 29th in wOBA in all of MLB and have a hapless .121 ISO and strike out 22.1% of the time to righties. Nola has had some struggles this year, but he’s still making balls miss bats: Against RH bats, he has 9.00 k/9 and versus lefties, it’s 11.53 K/9. He’s struggled and been unlucky to lefties, so it’s a good thing the Marlins don’t have a lot of lefties in this lineup.

HITTERS

Jung Ho Kang – 3B – Pittsburgh Pirates – $2,200

Analysis: The Pirates aren’t a super strong team against lefties, but they have some RH bats that can do some damage. Josh Bell is one of the better plays on the slate, but also one of the most expensive 1B. Kang comes in waaay super cheap against Eric Lauer, who owns a a 4.56 xFIP with a .322 wOBA and a 46% hard hit rate and 1.29 HR/9. Kang has a small sample size against lefties this year, but he’s been unlucky and is making good contact. He owns a .195 ISO with a 41.7 hard hit percentage. However, his wOBA and batting average are very low. His BABIP is very low too, sitting at .227. So when he’s making contact vs. southpaws, it’s hard and going for extra bases at times, but also resulting in outs. Eventually, those wrongs will right themselves.

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June 21 by

MLB – Value Index – Thursday, June 20

Soooo, food poisoning/stomach bugs are no joke.

Tuesday night, something hit me like a Mike Tyson right hook and I was out, thus no Index for Wednesday.

But things are better, and like Little Mac, I am up before the 10 count.

This is the second Thursday in a row MLB has had more than 5 games on a main slate. Tonight we have 10.

And outside of Charlie Morton, there’s no way I even consider paying up for pitching tonight. More on who I like shortly.

So, check the weather and hope the Nats aren’t in some kind of dilemma on whether to play tonight.

But how about Max Scherzer? Broke his nose and pitched the next day, and wrecked shop. What a stud!

Now to the good stuff. Below is the daily worst xFIP pitcher table for handedness. Remember, current ERA is in parenthesis.

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Tanner Roark – Cincinnati Reds – 6.38 (4.91)
2. Glenn Sparkman – Kansas City Royals – 6.18 (5.19)
3. Jose Suarez – Los Angeles Angels – 6.05 (2.57)
4. Dylan Bundy – Baltimore Orioles – 5.37 (2.91)
5. Adam Wainwright – St. Louis Cardinals – 5.14 (7.16)
6. Clayton Richard – Toronto Blue Jays – 4.65 (3.38)

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Jimmy Nelson – Milwaukee Brewers – 7.31 (13.50)
2. Clayton Richard – Toronto Blue Jays – 5.97 (9.00)
3. Wade LeBlanc – Seattle Mariners – 5.69 (7.08)
4. Jose Suarez – Los Angeles Angels – 5.19 (6.00)
5. Tyler Chatwood – Chicago Cubs – 4.76 (2.86)
6. Jake Odorizzi – Minnesota Twins – 4.73 (2.40)
7. Glenn Sparkman – Kansas City Royals – 4.61 (3.20)

Here we go! Good luck!

HITTERS

Mike Trout – OF – Los Angeles Angels – $4,800

Analysis: So Trout and another guy I will get to in a bit are the top 2 hitters on today’s slate, and if I was mass entering lineups, they would both probably be around 90% ownership. Trout vs. a lefty is happening tonight and that lefty is Clayton Richard, who has allowed a .430 wOBA, 47% hard hit rate and a 1.80 HR/9. Trout vs. lefties: .415 wOBA, .289 ISO, 20.6 BB%. I mean, I don’t know why I even need to give any reasons for playing Trout!

Vlad Guerrero, Jr – 3B – Toronto Blue Jays – $2,800

Analysis: It’s only a matter of time before Vlad, Jr.’s numbers come around. Yes, he shows up here a lot, but he’s always cheap, hits in a premiere spot in this lineup and has all the upside in the world. We have all thought he would be the price where Yordan Alvarez is now. I think he still gets there by the end of the year. So tonight the Jays take on a young pitcher in lefty Jose Suarez. In a small sample size, Suarez owns a 5.19 xFIP against righties and a 2.00 HR/9. Vlad’s numbers against lefties are way down, but way BABIP’d: .263 wOBA, .188 BABIP, .171 ISO, 38% hard contact.

Giancarlo Stanton – OF – New York Yankees – $4,000

Analysis: Astros starting lefty Framber Valdez hasn’t been bad, but he also hasn’t faced a very strong righty-friendly power lineup like the Yankees. And much like Trout, Stanton is always in play against lefties, even if Stanton just came off the IL and is trying to get his feet under him still. Valdez has allowed 42% hard contact and a 3.60 xFIP (2.28 ERA). Since Stanton doesn’t really have much data for this year, his numbers against lefties since 2017 are as follows: .446 wOBA, .375 ISO, 49% hard contact. Yea, you play him.

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June 20 by

MLB – Value Index – Tuesday, June 18

Look at those Angels ride!

Look at those Nats die!

Angels chalk hit in a massive way Monday night.

And the Nationals’ ability to discern weather continues to be mind-numbing. Luckily for this guy, I bailed once the great Kevin Roth was worried about pop-up thunderstorms and the game was going to start in a delay.

It appears the Nats could’ve played most of the game and waited out the rain at the end.

Never trust the Nats when the weather is fat.

I don’t know, just made up that saying.

Anyway, we have a full 15-game slate on tap for Tuesday night and many of the pitching options look like something we would see on Opening Day.

But like Opening Day, there’s plenty of scrubs to choose our bats to attack. Thankfully, it’s 15 games and we shouldn’t have to worry about too much chalk for tournaments.

Below is the table for projected starting pitchers and their xFIPs against both sides of the plate. Remember, the number in parenthesis is in the pitchers’ current ERA versus each handedness.

Oh and one more thing. Washington and Philly postponed, so the starters from Monday could be moved to today, meaning that Fedde and Eflin may not pitch and Patrick Corbin and Jake Arrieta might be back on, assuming weather doesn’t get in the way again.

PITCHERS xFIP vs. LH

1. Daniel Norris – 6.00 (7.36)
2. Antonio Senzatela – 5.78 (7.96)
3. Zach Plesac – 5.77 (2.00)
4. Brett Anderson – 5.65 (3.86)
5. Julio Teheran – 5.55 (2.80)
6. Anthony DeSclafani – 5.45 (6.25)
7. Zach Eflin – 5.31 (3.41)
8. Gabriel Ynoa – 5.09 (4.50)
9. Jack Flaherty – 5.05 (4.84)
10. Tyler Skaggs – 4.88 (1.72)
11. Merrill Kelly – 4.80 (2.83)
12. Ivan Nova – 4.69 (5.66)

PITCHERS xFIP vs. RH

1. Jordan Yamamoto – 6.10 (0.00)
2. Mitch Keller – 5.88 (16.88)
3. Erick Fedde – 5.58 (2.42)
4. Adrian Sampson – 5.38 (4.61)
5. J.A. Happ – 5.09 (5.03)
6. Michael Pineda – 5.05 (5.36)
7. Yusei Kikuchi – 5.01 (5.10)
8. Gabriel Ynoa – 4.92 (5.60)
9. Brett Anderson – 4.87 (3.90)
10. Antonio Senzatela – 4.76 (3.79)
11. Homer Bailey – 4.70 (5.85)
12. Merrill Kelly – 4.66 (4.40)
13. Shaun Anderson – 4.60 (2.21)

So my top stacks today are the Astros, maybe the Nationals, depending on who is pitching, and I like the Rangers, Cubs, and the Diamondbacks. And while I like a few cheap pitching options today, paying up seems tempting considering Kershaw is up against the lowly Giants, a team he has destroyed for years. Jacob deGrom is Jacob deGrom, he’s at home, but does face Atlanta. Verlander is Verlander, too, facing a wimpy Reds team himself.

So for the sake of the Value Index, today will be more about finding those cheaper options or guys who are mispriced. But there are tons of high-priced guys from those stacks above that make a lot of sense.

PITCHERS

Jack Flaherty – vs. Miami Marlins – $8,000

Analysis: If Miles Mikolas can rough this team up, Jack Flaherty can certainly do some damage against the Miami Marlins at home. Miami, as I’ve stated over and over here, are a team I hate to pick on, but they are also just downright bad. They are 29th in team wOBA at .296 with a wimpy ISO of .123 and a strikeout percentage of 22.3%. Flaherty is striking out lefties at only a 7.90 K/9, but he’s whiffing righties at an exceptional 11.74 K/9. The Marlins have tons of righties they will throw out at Flaherty, and he should be able to mow them down.

Tyler Skaggs – at Toronto Blue Jays – $7,600

Analysis: The Blue Jays are so bad that they don’t even play Justin Smoak anymore, their best hitter against right-handed pitching. They are even worse against lefties. Outside of Vlad and Lourdes, Jr. and some random big games from lefty Rowdy Tellez, the Blue Jays are a whipping post for pitching. Skaggs has been solid against both sides of the plate in limited action this season with a wOBA of .302 against lefties and a wOBA of .328 versus righties. He’s striking out lefties at an 8.62 K/9 and righties at a 9.32 K/9. The Blue Jays strike out at a rate of 23.4%, are 26th in wOBA and have a lowly ISO of .168 against southpaws. The Angels have been hot offensively, so Skaggs has a great shot at a win here as well.

Mitch Keller – vs. Detroit Tigers – $5,500

Analysis: If the Tigers weren’t the 30th-ranked team in wOBA against right-handed pitching, I might not even be recommending Mitch Keller today. But he’s the lowest-priced pitcher facing the worst-team in baseball against RH pitching. He’s getting his first home start, which should be more comforting to a rookie pitcher than two straight road starts. In two starts this season, Keller is striking out batters at a 16.20 K/9 vs. lefties and a 10.13 K/9 vs. righties. Now, those are probably extreme numbers, but if he’s going to continue to provide strikeout upside, then he’s in play today against a team striking out 25% of the time against righties. The ballpark bump also doesn’t hurt.

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June 18 by

MLB – Value Index – Monday, June 17

Hope everyone had a great Father’s Day weekend, enjoying food, family and some U.S. Open Golf! That’s how I like to spend this weekend every year personally.

Outside of golf’s third major, there also was some big news in the land of baseball over the weekend.

Edwin Encarnacion was traded to the Yankees from the Mariners, ensuring the Mariners, who was MLB’s hottest team to open the season, they are officially in give-up mode. In a corresponding move, the Yankees optioned budding young outfield Clint Frazier, a move that all bud puts the nails in the coffin for him finishing the season a Yankee in my opinion. He’s likely a trade chip to acquire a big-name pitcher before the deadline.

I don’t agree with the move as the Yankees have chumps like Brett Gardner still in the starting 9, but hey, I am not a GM. What do I know?

What I do know is we have a big 12-game slate today filled with a bunch of mid-tier pitching options and a few scrubs we can hopefully use to tee off on in our lineups.

Before we get to today’s selections, here’s a list of the worst pitcher xFIPs for today’s slate. Their current ERAs vs. handedness are in parenthesis.

PITCHER xFIP vs. LH

1. Elieser Hernandez – 7.41 (3.86)
2. Jhoulys Chacin – 6.60 (6.66)
3. Rick Porcello – 5.93 (5.59)
4. Jake Arrieta – 5.76 (5.26)
5. Miles Mikolas – 5.35 (6.25)
6. Felix Pena – 5.13 (3.67)
7. Danny Duffy – 5.12 (9.00)
8. Kenta Maeda – 5.10 (5.40)
9. Mike Fiers – 4.83 (3.52)
10. Andrew Cashner – 4.75 (1.87)
11. Lance Lynn – 4.73 (4.35)
12. Tyler Beede – 4.68 (11.74)

PITCHER xFIP vs. RH

1. Edwin Jackson – 7.36 (15.32)
2. Mike Fiers – 5.77 (5.61)
3. Tyler Beede – 5.31 (6.14)
4. Andrew Cashner – 5.04 (7.36)
5. Jhoulys Chacin – 5.02 (5.01)
6. Tommy Milone – 4.98 (3.86)
7. Danny Duffy – 4.91 (3.86)
8. Wade Miley – 4.63 (2.64)

As you can see, we have tons of pitchers that are really bad against lefties. We also have Edwin Jackson, who doesn’t make the worst list for left-handed bats, but he still gives up a ton of wOBA to lefties, those hits just haven’t turned into runs yet.

Anyway, the Angels, along with the Dodgers, are the top stacks on the board for me. Anyone against Edwin Jackson and Tyler Beede will be any day of the week. The Angels are hitting well and beat up on the likes of Blake Snell and Charlie Morton over the weekend, so of course they will beat up on Edwin tonight, right?

Let’s go!

PITCHERS

Mike Fiers – vs. Baltimore Orioles – $7,600

Analysis: I really can’t believe I am recommending this guy. He’s on my “never” list along with Anibal Sanchez, Homer Bailey (who is now removed temporarily after last week’s great performance), and Andrew Cashner. But it’s 2019. What a world. Fiers is facing off against the Baltimore Orioles, who are about as bad as they come. They are 27th in team wOBA with a paltry .171 ISO and 24.7% K-rate. This is FanDuel though and I am OK with this play since ERs are all pitchers lose points for. I don’t know that I could go this way on DraftKings. Fiers also has some weird splits. You see his xFIP against lefties, which isn’t terrible. Against righties though, he’s much worse, or should be. He’s always been a reverse-splits pitcher. But even with his bad ERA and xFIP, he still has allowed only a .289 wOBA, but has a .171 BABIP with a 2.08 HR/9.

Danny Duffy – at Seattle Mariners – $7,300

Analysis: I usually make one lineup on FanDuel, so I may go to Duffy here instead of Fiers, but it will be between them both for me today. But after I type this analysis, I might be talking myself into Duffy. It’s time to pick on the Mariners now, minus E5 and whoever else they decide to trade hear on out. But right now against lefties, Mariners are 21st in team wOBA against southpaws are striking out at a whopping 27% clip, the highest among any handedness for any team on this slate. Duffy is normally a stud against lefties, but you can see his xFIP shows he’s not been as good against lefties as his history shows. But the sample size is small. Against righties though, Duffy has been solid with a .290 wOBA, 6.69 K/9 and 0.89 HR/9.

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June 17 by

MLB – Value Index – Friday, June 14

Well, the NBA season is officially over the Toronto Raptors, yes, the Raptors, are the 2018-19 NBA Champions.

The underdog always comes back around to bite.

Anyway, Major League Baseball provides us DFS players with a full 15-game slate of action.

We have 7 pitchers in the $9K and above range, including a $12K Gerrit Cole, and Lucas Giolito as the third highest-priced pitcher.

There’s also some just trash gas can pitchers on this slate, too: Ryan Carpenter, Drew Smyly, Drew Pomeranz, Cal Quantrill, Steven Brault, etc.

Andrew Cashner was scheduled to pitch, but will not play due to injury.

Below is the table of ERAs/xFIPs based on the top-10 worst xFIPs. Enjoy!

 

PITCHER ERA/xFIP vs. LH

1. Drew Smyly – 13.50/8.11
2. Trevor Richards – 2.45/6.18
3. Adam Putko – 4.66/6.13
4. Zach Davies – 2.94/6.02
5. Ryan Carpenter – 8.10/5.41
6. Brad Keller – 3.15/5.19
7. Cal Quantrill – 5.28/5.08
8. Marco Gonzales – 6.95/5.07
9. Chris Bassitt – 3.90/4.98
10. Tyler Mahle – 5.86/4.92

PITCHER ERA/xFIP vs. RH

1. Steven Brault – 5.46/6.63
2. Drew Smyly – 7.30/5.93
3. Daniel Ponce de Leon – 2.70/5.74
4. Ryan Carpenter – 7.83/5.70
5. Aaron Sanchez – 4.06/5.63
6. Marco Gonzales – 3.98/5.42
7. C.C. Sabathia – 4.39/5.36
8. Drew Pomeranz – 7.29/4.83
9. Brad Keller – 5.28/4.74
10. Jeff Hoffman – 13.14/4.73

 

HITTERS

Nick Senzel – OF – Cincinnati Reds – $3,600

Analysis: I don’t know why the Rangers continue to let Drew Smyly pitch. But here we are. Smyly is a long way away from the Drew Smyly of old. The new Smyly is one big frown against righties: .410 wOBA, 35% hard hit rate and a 2.43 HR/9. The Reds are probably the perfect matchup for him to “get right” because they don’t have a lot of pop up and down the order. But where they do have pop is with Senzel and Eugenio Suarez, but more on him in a bit. As for Senzel, he’s been dope against lefties so far in his rookie season. Yes, I just used the word dope as an adjective. Anyway, Senzel owns a .399 wOBA, .239 ISO and 51% hard hit rate. The Great American Smallpark is going to be a juicy place for this matchup and the Rangers (more on them later, too).

Eugenio Suarez – 3B – Cincinnati Reds – $3,400

Analysis: Suarez is the other big bat from the Reds I like today against Smyly. Versus southpaws this season, Suarez owns a .375 wOBA, .259 ISO, a 15.2 BB% and a 53% hard contact rate. Yes, you play him.

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June 14 by

MLB – Value Index – Thursday, June 13

A Thursday evening slate with more than 5 games?

Matt Strahm priced at $9,900 (FanDuel) on the road in Coors?

Matt Boyd the highest-priced pitcher on FanDuel?

Will Homer Bailey make the Value Index?

These are rhetorial questions, well maybe, except the last one, but more on that later.

Thursday brings us an actual decent slate worth playing, instead of 4-5 games, we have 9, and lots of stud pitchers to pick from, and of course, Coors.

Before we get to today’s selections, here’s the list of the top pitcher and their xFIPs against both sides of the plate.

PITCHER xFIP vs. LH

1. Tyler Skaggs – 5.05
2. Jack Flaherty – 5.05
3. Matt Strahm – 5.01
4. Gabriel Ynoa – 4.89
5. Ivan Nova – 4.74
6. Clayton Kershaw – 4.69
7. Jon Gray – 4.59

PITCHER xFIP vs. RH

1. Erick Fedde – 5.52
2. Adrian Sampson – 5.22
3. J.A. Happ – 4.86
4. Homer Bailey – 4.65
5. Ivan Nova – 4.51
6. Jon Lester – 4.34
7. Tyler Skaggs – 4.33

Tyler Skaggs making both lists is shocking, perhaps the Rays are very sneaky today after bailing on everyone Wednesday?

Now, let’s get into today’s slate.

PITCHERS

Marcus Stroman – at Baltimore Orioles – $7,200

Analysis: Two pitchers making the list again today. One of them, Stroman, continues to suck me in, the other? Well, hell must be covered in ice. But Stroman draws the hapless Orioles, who are only really worthwhile against lefty pitchers (see Wednesday’s slate). The Orioles are 26th in team wOBA against RH pitching with a lowly ISO of .170, striking out 24.9% of the time. Stroman started the year strong and has been back to his Stroman ways. He’s striking out lefties at a 6.51 K/9 and righties at a 7.71 K/9. These numbers seem low, but he gets a bump against a strikeout heavy team.

Homer Bailey – vs. Detroit Tigers – $6,700

Analysis: Oh boy, this has to go wrong if I am recommending Homer Bailey. The thing is, it’s FanDuel and we only get tagged for ER. Much like the Boston pitcher the other day, Bailey can give up 3-4 runs but strikeout 6-7 and you are still in good shape with all of the bats you can load up on. Bailey hasn’t been as bad this year. He’s been getting popped by RH bats, but he’s also been rather unlucky (6.59 ERA, 4.65 xFIP, .379 BABIP). The Tigers are RH heavy, but Bailey has some decent BvP against current Tigers’ batters in limited samples. Overall, current Tigers who have faced Bailey are 7-for-34 with 1 HR and 1 RBI, and a .206 BA with no other extra-base hits. The Tigers against RH pitching are worse than the Orioles at 29th in team wOBA with a .160 ISO and 25.8% K-rate. Bailey is whiffing lefties at a 8.35 K/9 and righties at a 7.85 K/9. So Bailey has better numbers than Stroman and is facing a worse team. So if you need that $500, you can semi-feel comfortable swapping to Homer.

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June 13 by

MLB – Value Index – Wednesday, June 12 (Main)

Welcome into the hump day edition of the Value Index. I hope the big 15-gamer on Tuesday was profitable for you. But we move on quickly today for Wednesday’s main evening slate.

Below are the worst pitchers on the slate based on their xFIPs against lefties and righties. Good luck using that data for roster construction today. There’s also my top stacks for the slate below this information and then today’s recommendations.

xFIP vs. Lefties

Daniel Norris – 5.83
Zach Eflin – 5.52
Miles Mikolas – 5.13
David Hess – 4.83
Merrill Kelly – 4.76
Danny Duffy – 4.63

xFIP vs. Righties

Edwin Jackson – 7.76
David Hess – 6.17
Tommy Milone – 5.85
Mitch Keller – 5.69
Danny Duffy – 5.23
Shaun Anderson – 4.99
Merrill Kelly – 4.67

Top Stacks (in no particular order)

1. Minnesota Twins
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
6. Philadelphia Phillies

PITCHERS
Joey Lucchesi – at San Francisco Giants – $7,900

Analysis: Welcome to one of the best value plays on the board. Lucchesi draws the San Francisco Giants tonight, a team that is 29th in wOBA versus lefties and strikes out 23% of the time and only has a .130 ISO. The game also favors pitchers due to the venue in San Francisco. The Giants will likely have a few lefties they will have to trot out there, and Lucchesi strikes them out at a 1o.57 K/9. Against righties, Lucchesi owns an 8.65 K/9. Lucchesi’s price is in the perfect spot to get all the upside and allow for some big pop in your lineups.

HITTERS

Marwin Gonzalez – 3B – Minnesota Twins – $2,900

Analysis: The Twins are probably the number one stack on the slate today, for me. They are 3rd in overall wOBA against lefties and have been killed southpaws all season long. Marwin is one of those guys that can pop lefties. The Twins face journeyman Tommy Milone, who owns a paltry 5.85 xFIP with a 41% hard contact rate, a 51% fly ball rate and a 1.54 HR/9. Marwin, a switch-hitter, owns lefties in his career.

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June 12 by

MLB – Value Index – Tuesday, June 11

The Toronto Raptors couldn’t close out the championship Monday night and the series moves to Game 6, and the Warriors could be without Kevin Durant for the rest of the series…

Wait, why the hell am I talking about basketball?

It’s MF’in baseball season!

Tonight we have a completely full slate tonight in MLB, fifteen glorious games!

We have some stud pitching, some underrated offenses for today and then of course Coors.

But before we get to today’s selections, here’s the top pitchers and their xFIPs against lefties and righties for today’s slate….

PITCHER xFIP vs. LH Hitting

Elieser Hernandez 6.84
Jake Arrieta 5.85
Trevor Bauer 5.81
Spencer Turnbull 5.65
Mike Foltynewicz 5.44
Dakota Hudson 5.35
Brad Peacock 5.21
Ariel Jurado 5.09
Chris Archer 4.95
Felix Pena 4.86

PITCHER xFIP vs. RH Hitting

Elieser Hernandez 8.93
Tyler Beede 6.17
Mike Fiers 5.7
Mike Leake 5.53
John Means 5.43
Jason Vargas 5.11
Trent Thornton 4.97
Chris Archer 4.86
Jon Duplantier 4.82

Now, let’s get after it!

PITCHERS

Chris Paddack – at San Francisco Giants – $9,300

Analysis: Paddack may seem expensive, but he is priced well enough that you can still fit in some of the better offenses on the slate and feel safe about your pitcher. He takes on the Giants, a team that is 28th in team wOBA and has a team ISO of .168. They have added some lefties to the mix, and Paddack struggles to strikeout lefties, whiffing them at a 7.63 K/9. Against righties, Paddack owns a 12 K/9 rate. His wOBA and overall numbers still look good and he gets a ballpark boost playing in Giants’ stadium.

Darwinzon Hernandez – vs. Texas Rangers – $5,600

Analysis: For his first name alone, which is a very -EV way to play DFS, Darwinzon is worth playing. But in reality, he’s worth playing if you want to get some cheap strikeouts and load up on bats. The lefty faces a depleted Rangers lineup at home tonight, and Texas is a team that isn’t too scary against lefties without Joey Gallo in the mix. The Rangers are 25th in team wOBA agaisnt southpaws and strike out 23% of the time. Hernandez has struggled with giving up runs at Triple A, but he’s striking out batters at a 31% clip. He’s sub-$6K and is a value play that could rack up strikeouts, give up a few runs and your Coors stack could vault you up the standings.

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June 11 by

MLB – Value Index – Monday, June 10

Happy Michael Wacha chalk day AND happy Carlos Gonzalez Revenge Game Day.

Ok, well the second one above is probably a stretch considering CarGo is CarGone.

But yea, Michael Wacha will be highly sought after today against the Marlins.

And it goes against every rule and being I have in my DFS body.

First rule, don’t play Michael Wacha.

Second rule, don’t play pitchers against the Marlins.

But here we are. It’s a 9-game slate and we are going to be starved for value on all sites today, even on FanDuel.

Below is a table of the top-8 worst xFIPs vs. each hand on the slate today. Hope you continue to find this data helpful.

Now let’s sit back and let the good times roll.

vs. L xFIP
Taylor Clarke 6.89
Daniel Mengden 6.62
Jerad Eickhoff 6.12
Sandy Alcantara 5.52
Michael Wacha 5.18
Jason Vargas 4.72
Anibal Sanchez 4.68
Joe Musgrove 4.48
vs. R
Daniel Mengden 5.23
Jason Vargas 5.1
Anibal Sanchez 5.04
Michael Wacha 4.99
Kevin Gausman 4.89
Joe Musgrove 4.67
Sandy Alcantara 4.54
Griffin Canning 4.53

 

PITCHERS

Michael Wacha – at Miami Marlins – $6,300

Analysis: Here we are, shocking right? The Marlins are bad, but they are scrappy and can ruin your night playing pitchers against them on DraftKings. But this pricing isn’t DraftKings and you can roll the dice a little more when pitchers aren’t tagged for negative points for every little hit, walk and hit batsman. The Marlins are dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, accumulating a 22.3% strike out rate with a very paltry .113 ISO on the year. Wacha has been struggling all season, but he’s still striking out batters from both sides of the plate at at least an 8 K/9.

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June 10 by

MLB – Value Index – Wednesday, June 5 (Main)

The Marlins scored 16 runs.

The Brewers scored none.

Miggy hit a grand slam off Blake Snell.

Kyle Hendricks was the top fantasy pitcher.

Max Fried got rocked by the low-power Pirates.

Stephen Strasburg got rocked by the lowly White Sox.

The Braves, Nationals, Pirates, Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Indians, Giants, Rays, Orioles, Marlins, White Sox and Cubs all scored at least 5 runs.

At the time of this writing, the Reds and Dodgers were well on their way to at least 5 runs.

Let’s just say it was a damn crazy slate on Tuesday!

But now it’s Wednesday and while most pitchers got rocked, it’s a new day.

So we will focus on the main slate for today.

And something we will start doing on the Index every day is posting a list of the worst xFIPs  vs. both hands for all pitchers on the slate each night.

So, without further ado, here’s the pitcher list for today…

Pitchers xFIP vs. Lefty Bats

1. Daniel Mengden – 1.93 ERA – 6.57 xFIP
2. Anthony Desclafani – 7.11 ERA – 5.80 xFIP
3. Sandy Alcantara – 4.66 ERA – 5.79 xFIP
4. Tyler Beede – 12.46 ERA – 5.79 xFIP
5. Spencer Turnbull – 2.73 ERA – 5.47 xFIP
6. Jason Vargas – 6.75 ERA – 5.38 xFIP
7. Dakota Hudson – 5.27 ERA – 5.36 xFIP
8. Brad Peacock – 3.45 ERA – 5.01 xFIP
9. Felix Pena – 2.16 ERA – 4.71 xFIP
10. Jakob Junis – 5.93 ERA – 4.60 xFIP

Pitchers xFIP – vs. Righty Bats

1. Mike Leake – 6.03 ERA, 5.68 xFIP
2. Jason Vargas – 3.67 ERA, 5.52 xFIP
3. John Means – 3.00 ERA, 5.22 xFIP
4. Tyler Beede – 5.40 ERA, 5.12 xFIP
5. Daniel Mengden – 3.97 ERA, 4.89 xFIP
6. Trent Thornton – 3.25 ERA, 4.84 xFIP
7. Joe Musgrove – 3.50 ERA, 4.80 xFIP
8. Kevin Gausman – 6.60 ERA, 4.77 xFIP
9. Sandy Alcatara – 3.20 ERA, 4.56 xFIP
10. Martin Perez – 2.88 ERA, 4.48 xFIP

Hope this information helps going forward. Now time for today’s picks!

PITCHERS

James Paxton – at Toronto Blue Jays – $10,000

Analysis: I think pitching is pretty weak sauce tonight. So for FanDuel’s sake, I am perfectly OK with paying up for Paxton, who I feel is way too cheap based on his upside potential today against the Blue Jays. Paxton’s peripherals are excellent against both sides of the plate this season. He’s super tough on lefties, allowing a measly 0.93 ERA so far. Overall, Toronto is 27th in wOBA and owns a lowly .153 ISO and striking out 24% of the time against southpaws.

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June 5 by

MLB – Value Index – Tuesday, June 4

Well, I took a longer than wanted hiatus from the Value Index this past week, but **** happens, right?

Anyway, I am in the last week before having a couple of months off for summer and won’t be so damn tired at night and hopefully stress free!

So let’s get back at it.

Tuesday brings us a full 15-game slate, a day removed from a blasphemous 3-game late Monday night slate.

June is here and this is the time when we might start seeing more trades moving forward. We’ve seen Jay Bruce move along to Philly. Who will be next?

We also should see some notable prospect call ups and Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel should be finding a team some time soon.

As for this 15-game slate, let me say that the Braves, while not cheap tonight, are one of my favorite stacks to pay up for. You won’t see them on the value portion of this write-up, but I will be looking for cheap bats to fit in the stacks I like.

Now, let’s get it on!

HITTERS

Willy Adames – SS – Tampa Bay Rays – $2,500

Analysis: It’s uncertain if Pham and Garcia will be back in the lineup tonight. If they are, the Rays are really sneaky as a stack today. Adames and the Rays draw Ryan Carpenter, a noodle-armed lefty that the Tigers are almost forced to roll out into the rotation at this point. Here’s Carpenter’s numbers against RH bats this season – .370 wOBA, .217 BABIP, 39% hard contact, 2.93 HR/9 and 39% fly ball rate. Adames has been so unlucky this season against lefties. He has a .189 BABIP but a 40% hard hit rate. He’s cheap and should hit in the middle of the order.

Travis Shaw – 3B – Milwaukee Brewers – $2,200

Analysis: Shaw is supposed to come off the IL today and hopefully some time in the minors (which hasn’t gone super well) and some home cooking will help him get back on track. Tonight the Brewers draw Pablo Lopez, who has been a tough pitcher at home, but continues to lit up on the road. He draws a tough lineup with a tough ballpark for pitchers to pitch in. Shaw has a below average BABIP, a 40% hard hit rate and a 14% BB rate against right-handed pitchers. The power hasn’t arrived yet, but some positive regression is in order. This price is too cheap for a potential home run in a park that lefty friendly.

Hanser Albert0 – 2B – Baltimore Orioles – $2,500

Analysis: The Orioles are my favorite value stack of the night. They draw Rangers’ lefty Drew Smyly, who has been awful this year…to both sides of the plate. So stack them up tonight, all handedness. Alberto is one of the better value plays overall tonight. He’s been hitting in the leadoff spot and he’s facing his former team. Against lefties this season, Alberto owns a whopping .401 wOBA, a .156 ISO, and 35% hard hit rate. Smyly, meanwhile, owns the following numbers against RH bats in 2019: .364 wOBA, 5.81 xFIP, 51% hard hit rate, 6.32 BB/9 and a 2.01 HR/9.

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June 4 by

MLB – Value Index – Tuesday, May 28

If you are playing on FanDuel tonight, make sure you lock in your rosters before 5:35 p.m. central time.

FanDuel has crammed in two of the earlier games into the evening slate giving us a full 15 games to dig through for daily fantasy baseball tonight.

We’ve got a few studs on the mound, some great offenses to light matches against the gas cans, a game at Coors, and probably one of the worst games/series starting up.

Starting from the end of that list, the game/series that might sicken us all to roster just about anyone against is the San Francisco/Miami series, which will take place in Miami. Two very bad offenses in a big time pitchers park will have me wanting to play both pitchers from this game. More on that in a bit.

Anyway, let’s tackle this beast and get it on for Tuesday night. Hope everyone has a solid weekend and we can get back to making that dough tonight.

PITCHERS

Jeff Samardzija – at Miami Marlins – $6,600

Analysis: If you have been keeping up, you know that targeting the Marlins, who are terrible at baseball, is one of my least favorite things to do. You saw how they checked down Max Scherzer (and have all year). This is what they do to me and I fall for it every time. But I still have to consider pitchers against them because they are the “right” play. Shark draws the Marlins on the road and hopefully there’s not West Coast/East Coast jet lag for a guy who is due for some massive regression. The Marlins are 29th in wOBA with a paltry .115 team ISO and strike out nearly 22% of the time. They are bad, flat out bad. Shark has xFIPs against both sides of the plate in the 5s, but he’s been able to strike out batters from the left side at an 8.76 K/9 and at a lowly 5.53 K/9 to right-handed batters. As long as he can stay in control, Samardzija can pay off on FanDuel because of the scoring system in place.

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May 28 by