Today we are back at it for another round of BvP action!
Last week was rather tough, and we have been dethroned by our very own “On the HIll” expert Brad after this week’s rankings came out Monday. Luckily, a decent showing Friday helped BvP stay a close second. It’s nice to see Daily Overlay hang on to the top-2 spots for the third week in a row.
Now we are going into the final stretch of the first month of the season. Tonight we have a full slate of games, though you might as well throw out the Rangers/Yankees game. There’s a rather significant chance for an outbreak of severe weather, including tornadoes in the the central U.S. and North Texas. I live in the East Texas area and we aren’t out of the possibility of severe weather ourselves, but hopefully it stays away everywhere. However, it looks like Oklahoma and Kansas might get the worst of it. Anyone reading this that is in any part of this severe weather outbreak, I hope you and yours stay safe. Same goes to our very own Matt who could be affected himself. Stay safe everyone.
Anyway, I vow to take back the top spot in our Expert Grading, so I hope we can jump start our week with some great BvP selections below. There are lots of aces on the mound tonight, games at Rogers Centre, Coors and Chase (and Ballpark in Arlington if that somehow plays). There are also some Sackos when it comes to pitching options, and we will look to exploit them.
And below is going to be my largest output of BvP for the year, there’s just too many options in great spots that I can’t ignore! I will keep the narratives short. If I bomb today, then I likely won’t post so many again. I’ve said in the past that i want to keep the options short and simple, but honestly, tonight could be a perfect storm, figuratively speaking.
Remember to check out dailybaseballdata.com for all up-to-date BvP and PvB stats. They are responsible for the data provided below. Give them a look!
Josh Donaldson – 3B – Blue Jays – vs. Chris Sale
BvP: 3-for-11, 2 HR, 6 RBI
Analysis: The reigning AL MVP is matchup proof and right now he is on fire. He comes in with a 6-game hitting streak and 12 hits in his last 10 games and that includes 2 home runs. Sale owns a .191 wOBA against RHs thus far and a 1.8 ERA, but his peripherals show us that he hasn’t been perfect, sporting a 3.19 xFIP and a 3.09 SIERA. Donaldson has two dongs off of Sale already and Donaldson is making his case for the best hitter in baseball. Also, he’s likely to have lower ownership than normal due to matchup.
Chase Utley – 2B – Dodgers – vs. Tom Koehler
BvP: 6-for-15, 2 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB
Analysis: Utley comes in red hot with 11 hits in his last 7 games with 3 doubles and a triple to boot. He hits atop the Dodgers’ lineup that can put up runs in bunches. Koehler owns a laughable .453 wOBA against lefties so far and has struggled mightily on the road in his career.
Miguel Cabrera – 1B – Tigers – vs. Rich Hill
BvP: 3-for-3, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SB
Analysis: He’s alive! Miggy has returned. After receiving a day off on Sunday, Miggy was back in the lineup Monday and pelted two home runs off of the zit that is Kendall Graveman. Now he gets a lefty in Rich Hill at home where Miggy has thrived since becoming a Tiger. Hill has revived his career as pitcher, but his .357 wOBA and 40.7% hard contact against RHs is going to make life difficult for the aging lefty.
Kendrys Morales – 1B – Royals – vs. Jered Weaver
BvP: 8-for-14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 4 BB
Analysis: Jered Weaver isn’t even in the stratosphere of his former self. He currently sports less than 4 K/9 while allowing 1.59 HR/9. He has a 3.12 ERA already with an ungodly xFIP of 6.23 with a 5.99 SIERA. He’s a back cyst ready to burst. The only thing going for Weaver is Angel Stadium, one of the best pitcher venues. I’ll take my chances with Kendrys Morales against his former team at a reduced rate and low ownership against an aging pitcher sporting a .453 wOBA versus lefties.
Nelson Cruz – OF – Mariners – vs. Dallas Keuchel
BvP: 7-for-14, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB
Analysis: I am certainly taking a chance with this pick considering Dallas Keuchel keeps the ball in the yard and has a 2.69 GB/FB rate to open the season (he’s had +3 GB/FB rates the past two seasons). However, like Donaldson, I will always play guys like Cruz against handedness of which they destroy. For Cruz, he dominates lefties and has 2 HRs off of Keuchel in 14 PAs. Cruz also is in good form and when he is seeing the ball, he too is matchup proof. Cruz has 4 multi-hit games in his last 10 and HRs in 2 of his last three ball games. Keuchel struggles on the road more than at home, so Cruz is in a solid spot with upside and likely low ownership.
Jon Jay – OF – Padres – vs. Johnny Cueto
BvP: 12-for-29, 1 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: I am laughing as I type this, but I can’t ignore the success Jon Jay has had so far with the Padres and I can’t ignore the BvP vs. Cueto. Jay has 3 dingers against the guy! Jay has like 5 career HRs (exaggerating, but it isn’t many). This is strictly a value play and I am not going to predict a homerun. But if you need to save salary, Jay is only $2400 on DK and $2500 on FD and he’s nearly got a .500 average against Cueto while leading off for San Diego. You could do much, much worse.
Jose Abreu – 1B and Todd Frazier – 3B – White Sox – vs. R.A. Dickey
Abreu BvP: 4-for-9, 3 HR, 5 RBI
Frazier BvP: 4-for-10, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 1 SB
Analysis: The first of 3 recommended stacks for tonight. Frazier and Abreu own RH pitching and 5 times in 19 ABs they have owned the knuckleball. Dickey’s age and velocity doesn’t really matter with the knuckler, but if it’s on, well that’s the risk you take. But if it floats around, then Frazier and Abreu can hit BP all day. I love the venue for this stack and I love that Frazier is hot right now, reaching base in 8 straight games with 3 multi-hit games and 3 home runs. Abreu has been struggling, but looks to be coming around having reached base in 3 straight with a couple of hits and drawing walks. In case you are wondering, Dickey is allowing a .372 wOBA to RH batters so far this season.
Starling Marte – OF and Andrew McCutchen – OF – vs. Jorge de la Rosa
Marte BvP: 4-for-9, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 1 SB
McCutchen BvP: 6-for-19, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 4 BB, 1 SB
Analysis: I am worried about these two coming back to bite me the most, but I expect them to have some of the highest ownership of the evening. McCutchen sat Monday night due to his struggles, so I am hoping for a nice resurgence tonight a la Miggy from Monday. Coors Field certainly helps even though de la Rosa has shown he can hang around at home. Marte is another guy I expect to reach base and be a threat on the base paths while having the ability to take one deep. They will be two of the more expensive hitters of the night, but they also could produce double-digit fantasy points thanks to the venue, lefty pitcher (of which Pirates are 4th against as a team this season) and Vegas has this game as the highest projected O/U on the board.
Max Scherzer – SP – Nationals – vs. Philadelphia Phillies
PvB: 20-for-120, 5 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB, 31 Ks, 1 SB
Analysis: I am expecting one of my three pitching options to fail to pay off his salary. Kershaw has a shot because he’s so overwhelmingly pricey, but Scherzer is up against a team that strikes out just 21% of their at-bats. No matter though, he’s at home and the Phillies have been dreadful against RH pitching with not much power. Depending on who starts, the Phillies have 9 extra-base hits out of just 20 total hits in 120 ABs. They haven’t drawn many walks and Scherzer hopefully gets to make Ryan Howard look silly 3 for 4 times today. Scherzer has struggled some to open the season, but I still expect him to pick up the win and be one of the more highly owned pitchers.
David Price – SP – Red Sox – vs. Atlanta Braves
PvB: 37-for-148, 6 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 4 BB, 30 Ks, 2 BB
Analysis: I saved my favorite pitching option for….second? Anyway, Price got rocked in his last start against the Rays at Fenway, of which I was shocked. He has an inflated ERA above 7, but he’s pitching much, much better than that. Tonight he gets the lowly Braves who are next to last in wOBA vs. southpaws (.237 wOBA). Atlanta has a ridiculously low ISO vs. lefties at 0.037 and this game is in pitcher-friendly Turner Field. The Price is Right y’all! Boomshakalaka!
Clayton Kershaw – SP – Dodgers – vs. Miami Marlins
PvB: 18-for-70, 7 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 20 Ks
Analysis: Kershaw is strictly a tournament play for me tonight. His price tag is very large ($13,800 on DK, $13,000 on FD). You are going to have to be a wiz to get in some solid bats to make Kershaw fit (might I recommend Jon Jay?). Anyway, Kershaw is still Kershaw and he can go off any time he takes the mound. He gets to pitch at home where he is most comfortable. Besides price, the only knock for Kershaw tonight is his opponent. The Marlins may not sound menacing, but they are the top team against LH pitching with a .399 wOBA. I’d argue Giancarlo Stanton is in play against Kershaw, but I will take Kersh over any lineup any day of the week (except in the playoffs, buuuurrrrn). But this is the regular season and Kershaw is a nightmare for even the best offenses in the majors.
That’s 13 picks tonight, hopefully that’s a lucky number!
One last order of business. I started making lineups on my BvP for MVP days using some of my picks and other players I like. We got off to a hot start a little over a week ago, but then slowly started to fade. Anyway, here’s how we are doing so far through 4 lineups:
| Date | Contest Type | Entry Fee | Lineup Score | Winnings | Profit | Total Profit |
| 4/15/2016 | 50/50 | $1 | 186 | $1.80 | $0.80 | -$1.20 |
| 4/15/2016 | GPP | $1 | 186 | $3.00 | $2.00 | |
| 4/19/2016 | 50/50 | $1 | 93 | $0.00 | -$1.00 | |
| 4/19/2016 | GPP | $1 | 93 | $0.00 | -$1.00 | |
| 4/20/2016 | GPP | $1 | 123 | $0.00 | -$1.00 | |
| 4/22/2016 | GPP | $1 | 93 | $0.00 | -$1.00 |
I won’t analyze each lineup, but you can go back and check them out from my previous entries. For tonight, here is my BvP-related lineup.
Narrative: Everyone is a BvP play from above with David Price as my pitcher. I will gladly take Billy Hamilton at $2,200 against Bartolo Colon and Brad Miller is just a punt. I liked Montero with Jason Heyward today against Jimmy Nelson and his history against them. Montero is a cheap option with HR upside.
