Another Wednesday with another split schedule, but not as divided in half as usual, so we again get a lot more choices for BvP plays tonight.
We are in a bit of a rough patch with our bats, and like every great hitter, slumps happen. We have been able to maintain our top spot in the pitcher Expert Rankings, but by the skin of our teeth. Max Scherzer helped our score with a solid outing last night, and tonight I have a pitcher once again.
If you need more BvP data to view, visit dailybaseballdata.com for more info! And now, picks!
Anthony Rizzo – 1B – Cubs – vs. Ricky Nolasco
BvP: 3-for-7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: Jered Weaver was rough up by the Cubs last night and now it’s the Angels’ newest acquisition’s turn to fight through the gauntlet of Cubs. Nolasco is a reverse-splits pitcher, so while I like Rizzo with his small sample size, Kris Bryant is most definitely in play. Rizzo is the top 1B in terms of pricing, but he’s got a modest 5-game hitting streak coming in, including a multi-hit game last night against Weaver. Rizzo could be on tap for a HR and more tonight.
Nolan Arenado – 3B – Rockies – vs. Martin Perez
BvP: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: I am recommending both 3B in the Coors game tonight, and first we have Arenado. Pricing isn’t much different between him and my other 3B pick, Adrian Beltre, so pick your poison. Arenado has been swinging a hot stick lately and certainly pummels lefty pitching, especially at home. Perez is an extreme ground ball pitcher, but when gives up fly ball in Coors, they will have a good chance to leave the yard. Perez has served up 12 HRs to RH bats this season, so Arenado is more than capable of adding to that total.
Matt Kemp – OF – Braves – vs. Chase Anderson
BvP: 6-for-14, 1 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI
Analysis: Matt Kemp making the list for the second straight day?? He almost didn’t, but I can’ pass up those sloppy Chase Anderson reverse splits versus a power bat inside Miller Park. Kemp hasn’t been the former MVP Kemp at this point of his career and has struggled with RH pitching this season, but I am giving the edge to Kemp vs. Anderson’s .421 wOBA and 14 homers allowed to RH bats this season.
Stephen Vogt – C – Athletics – vs. Yovani Gallardo
BvP: 3-for-6, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: I am not recommending a lot of value tonight, but with the stellarless pitching options tonight, pricing may not matter for your lineups as much,. But you can save some salary by rostering Stephen Vogt against Yovani Gallardo. The A’s are never a spectacular team, but they are scrappy and very GPP friendly most night. Vogt is a reliable option at catcher who typically has a high floor, but maybe not the upside you might want in a ceiling. Either way, Gallardo owns a 6.96 ERA and a .365 wOBA to left-handed bats this season.
Ian Desmond – OF and Adrian Beltre – 3B – Rangers – vs. Jorge de la Rosa
Desmond BvP: 6-for-15, 3 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB
Beltre BvP: 1-for-7, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB
Analysis: Back to Coors we go and for our enjoyment we have the Rangers’ top-ranked bat against lefties in Ian Desmond and veteran Adrian Beltre. JDLR has a .367 wOBA vs. RH bats and has allowed 9 home runs. JDLR does pitch better in Coors, but it’s Coors and while the Rangers can be flat offensively when they shouldn’t be, this is Coors and you can load them up in all of your linups.
Andrew McCutchen – OF and Starling Marte – OF – vs. Edwin Jackson
McCutchen BvP: 13-for-30, 3 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 7 BB, 1 SB
Marte BvP: 9-for-22, 2 2B, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 6 SB
Analysis: I am purely hoping Edwin Jackson’s regression continues against the PIrates tonight. McCutchen’s BvP numbers are almost irrelevant right now because he’s been mire in a season-long slump. He might be showing signs of turning things around at the plate, and perhaps E-Jax can be the slump buster he needs and we need. I love Marte tonight as well because if he gets on base against Edwin, he is likely to swipe a bag or two. Marte has 6 swipes in 8 attempts while reaching base 11 times in his career vs. Jackson, so needless to say, there’s something there that Marte recognizes when he’s on that has him comfortable on the basepaths.
Drew Pomeranz – SP – Red Sox – vs. New York Yankees
PvB: 9-for-48, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 7 BB, 11 Ks
Analysis: I figured Pomeranz would come back to earth a bit with the switch to the AL and having to pitch games in RH-bat friendly Fenway Park. With this being his first Red Sox/Yankee rivalry game and the lack of production the Yanks bring against lefties, I like Pomeranz to finally pitch at least a quality start with more than a handful of Ks, and be in line for the win. Pomeranz can make bats miss with the best of them and his price has come way down due to some recent struggles. The form is there and the K potential is there, so I don’t think there’s much to worry about here.