The 2016-17 school year is off and running for this guy, so forgive me now if these seem short and sweet (or praise me if you wish) for awhile as I establish a routine and get things rocking and rolling in my classroom.
But enough of that, it’s still baseball season and we need some picks for tonight’s full slate of games.
Before you make your lineups and are a BvP person, please visit dailybaseballdata.com for more BvP data from all over the league.
Again, my format has changed for the stretch run of the season. Typically, I will provide 5 bats for cash games, a GPP bat and a pitcher (when applicable). Good luck tonight!
Mike Trout – OF – Angels – vs. R.A. Dickey – DraftKings – $5,200
|BB% vs. R||ISO vs. R||Hard% vs. R||BAA vs. R||wOBA vs. R||wRC+ vs. R||Trout BvP|
|16.1 %||0.261||41.2 %||0.321||0.426||176||6-for-11, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 BB|
Analysis: Mike Trout in one of the more hitter-friendly parks in the majors against an aging knuckler? How can I convince you not to take Trout in all of your lineups tonight? He’s not the data darling of the night, but he is certainly my favorite play of all my picks. He has yet to hit a HR against Dickey, but with 3 extra-base hits out of 6 hits, I would say he’s definitely due to add that feat to the list.
Nolan Arenado – 3B – Rockies – vs. Chase Anderson – DraftKings – $4,900
|BB% vs. R||ISO vs. R||Hard% vs. R||BAA vs. R||wOBA vs. R||wRC+ vs. R||Arenado BvP|
|8.3 %||0.272||35.7 %||0.281||0.37||113||6-for-20, 1 2B, 3 HR|
Analysis: It’s always hard to target Rockies away from Coors, which inflates a lot of statistical output. But Miller Park is no slouch to allowing gobs of runs. Arenado is in a perfect spot tonight – depressed price against a reverse-splits pitcher (.409 wOBA vs. RH) who allows more than 2 HRs per 9 innings. Arenado has been solid against RH pitchers and provides a high floor due to his ability to hit any handedness well when the bullpen takes the field. If it wasn’t for Trout, this might be my favorite play.
Kike Hernandez – OF – Dodgers – vs. Madison Bumgarner – DraftKings – $2,900
|BB% vs. L||ISO vs. L||Hard% vs. L||BAA vs. L||wOBA vs. L||wRC+ vs. L||Hernandez BvP|
|17.0 %||0.219||35.1 %||0.205||0.331||109||10-for-16, 4 2B, 3 HR|
Analysis: Will Kike see the field tonight? Let’s hope so because he’s tattooed Maddy B in the past. Bumgarner is away from home tonight, which only boosts my love for Kike. The Dodgers are playing very well right now, so Kike should likely slide into the lineup somewhere in the top-5 spots like he usually does against lefties. Kike doesn’t seem like a great cash game play, but on paper he makes an excellent salary saver due to his outstanding success against the opposing pitcher.
Stephen Piscotty – OF – Cardinals – vs. Jon Niese – DraftKings – $5,300
|BB% vs. L||ISO vs. L||Hard% vs. L||BAA vs. L||wOBA vs. L||wRC+ vs. L||Piscotty BvP|
|12.9 %||0.275||30.9 %||0.308||0.418||165||4-for-8, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB|
Analysis: Piscotty he Biscotti (my official nickname for him) has quietly grown to be a very reliable DFS player. He’s a huge threat against LHs and hits much better at Busch Stadium than away from it. Jon Niese, as you should already know, is cannon fodder. The Cardinals look like a supreme matchup tonight overall (all kinds of BvP plays) and are at home, their favorite venue. I don’t think you could go wrong with stacking Cardinals, including the Biscotti, in all formats.
J.D. Martinez – OF – Tigers – vs. Kyle Gibson – DraftKings – $5,000
|BB% vs. R||ISO vs. R||Hard% vs. R||BAA vs. R||wOBA vs. R||wRC+ vs. R||Martinez BvP|
|10.2 %||0.253||39.1 %||0.309||0.399||152||8-for-19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB|
Analysis: I was having a difficult time deciding if J.D. should be a cash game play or my GPP play of the day. I opted for the cash game side (though GPPs shouldn’t be ruled out) with Martinez’s recent form and sub-par matchup. J.D. is an all-around bat, can hit lefties and righties well. Target Field favors RH bats and J.D. has owned Gibson early on in his pitching career. Gibson has been about as good as chugging motor oil this season, so Martinez and a few other Tigers, like the Cardinals, also have a tasty matchup tonight.
Logan Morrison – 1B – Rays – vs. Clay Buccholz – DraftKings – $3,200
|BB% vs. R||ISO vs. R||Hard% vs. R||BAA vs. R||wOBA vs. R||wRC+ vs. R||Morrison BvP|
|10.7 %||0.216||44.0 %||0.326||0.401||152||5-for-12, 2 2B, 2 HR|
Analysis: I really don’t know if LoMo is a true GPP play. He’s relatively cheap and he should be rostered because Clay Buchholz has become about as volatile as Mentos inside of a Diet Coke bottle. You never know what you are going to get and it’s likely going to not favor Buccholz. LoMo will not have much ownership in GPPs, especially at a premium position such as first base. But it won’t take much for him to payoff, and with 2 HRs already against Buccholz, it’s not too farfetched to wish for another home run from Morrison tonight.
C.C. Sabathia – SP – Yankees – vs. Seattle Mariners
|7.6||1.04||0.299||4.49||4.52||31-for-124, 6 2B, 2 HR, 44 Ks|
Analysis: I feel like I am trying to force this one in. I am not sure how I feel about it. Will he go very long? Or will he strikeout early? Will the other guys take him deep? This was really hard. All of those statements are “That’s What She Saids,” but they also apply to my pitcher pick of the night – C.C. Sabathia. He has pitched much better on the road this season and has avoided the long ball. Against C.C. in their careers, Cano, Seager and Cruz are a combined 10-for-51 with no HRs and only a handful of RBIs. Yes, those three aren’t the whole team, but they are the heart of the order, and they don’t do very well against Sabathia, who has raised his K/9 rate to almost 8 this season. Sabathia is pitching about as well as you would expect if you look at his numbers, but being away from home in a pitcher’s park against a team that can struggle with lefties at times, I think Sabathia makes a solid value play in tournaments.