As I started writing this, I mentioned how Chase Anderson had a no-hitter through 7, and then I guess I jinxed him. Ben Zobrist roped a double to center to lead off the 8th.
Oh well, if you had Chase Anderson last night (the two of you out there), then you likely had a solid evening of DFS baseball.
We finally kicked the Tuesday blues bucket with our picks from yesterday, so things are starting to look up. Here’s to a lengthy heater!
Today is a Wednesday split, so we have just 12 games on today’s slate. We also do not have as many aces as we did yesterday. That was an insane amount of big arms to sift through.
We have a lot of picks to get to. I always say I am not going to do this, but then there are too many picks to ignore!
I started with 10 selections, then remembered how well I do when I have a lot of options. I still believe all 10 could do some damage in their own way because many are facing guys who are truly awful or are due for a hiccup.
For the record, the guys I faded: Robinson Cano (crazy right? Tillman has been pitching very well at home though and Cano’s price is up so I think you can find value at the position elsewhere), Andrew McCutchen and Yoenis Cespedes. Usually the fade means the guy goes nuts, so I will certainly have some exposure to these guys even though they aren’t official picks.
As always, check out dailybaseballdata.com for all the BvP data you could ever want!
Chris Davis – 1B – Orioles – vs. Taijuan Walker
BvP: 1-for-2, 3 BB
Analysis: Taijuan Walker continues to be a boom or bust player. He’s been much better on the road than at home, but those starts are limited and he hasn’t faced an offense like the Orioles. A night after getting trounced by Wade Miley and the Mariners, I look for the Orioles rally behind Chris Tillman and get back to scoring some runs. The Orioles are surprisingly bad against lefties right now, but are still top dogs against RH pitching. The BvP data for this is limited, but Davis already has 3 walks against Walker and has 8 hits in his last 9 games, including a handful of walks. Crush hasn’t been very good at home, but he’s going to come around at some point
Colby Rasmus – OF – Astros – vs. Mat Latos
BvP: 6-for-11, 1 2B
Analysis: I hate Mat Latos. He’s in the Bud Norris, J.A. Happ, Wade Miley category for me. He’s certainly not a good pitcher anymore and isn’t missing a lot of bats with a 4.31 K/9. While the Astros whiff at the highest clip in the league against RHP, they are full of upside. One of those guys is Mr. Rasmus, who has 6 hits in 11 ABs against the CWS starting pitcher. Rasmus is a streaky hitter and has 5 hits in his last 3 games, so let’s hope we catch lightning in a bottle tonight as Latos’ 3.4 ERA should actually be in the 5s, according to his peripherals.
Charlie Blackmon – OF – Rockies – vs. Adam Wainwright
BvP: 4-for-7, 2 2B, 1 RBI, 1 SB
Analysis: This game is away from Coors, but it hasn’t mattered where games have been played for Wainwright, he’s been awful this season. He is definitely not anywhere close to the Wainwright of old and like Roy Halladay, Wainwright just might not have it anymore. Meanwhile though, let’s capitalize on his averageness. Blackmon had some early success against the real Wainwright, so why not the washed-up version? (This is such a Monahan Reverse Jinx statement).
Jacoby Ellsbury – OF – Yankees – vs. Shelby Miller
BvP: 3-for-3, 3 RBI, 2 SB
Analysis: Speaking of awful pitchers, Shelby Miller takes the mound tonight. I once liked Shelby, but he’s really turned into a clunker. The Yankees have been in a tale spin of late, but nothing like a declining pitcher to boost your confidence at the plate. Sometimes I just like to show you how bad a pitcher is, this is one of those times…
| wOBA vs. L | Avg. vs. L | Hard vs. L | wOBA vs. R | Avg. vs. R | Hard vs. R | K/9 | GB/FB | HR/9 | BABIP | ERA | xFIP | SIERA |
| 0.398 | 0.292 | 43.1 % | 0.357 | 0.258 | 31.4 % | 5.66 | 0.98 | 2.06 | 0.278 | 6.94 | 5.92 | 5.94 |
His BABIP is nearing league average and his xFIP and SIERA aren’t much lower than his ERA. Needless to say, he’s bad and is pitching in a very hitter-friendly park. Now we hope Ellsbury punishes him. He’s perfect against Miller to start his career at the plate, but has 3 RBI and 2 SB already. Since returning from injury, Ellsbury has collected a couple of hits and has reasserted himself atop the Yankee lineup. In fact, I wouldn’t blame you for selecting a lot of Yankees tonight.
Buster Posey – C – Giants – vs. Drew Pomeranz
BvP: 5-for-8, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: Buster Posey vs. a lefty? Yes, please. Pomeranz is an improving pitcher and the Giants haven’t as good of a team against lefties. This game also is played at PETCO, which is actually more hitter friendly than AT&T Stadium, so venue here doesn’t matter to me as much because Posey can take anyone deep, in any stadium at any time. Pomeranz has some regression coming though as his 1.49 ERA is unsustainable, especially since Pomeranz is somewhat of a fly-ball pitcher. His HR/9 (0.45) is surely to inflate over the course of a season, and that could start tonight.
Gregory Polanco – OF – Pirates – vs. Julio Teheran
BvP: 3-for-5, 1 BB
Analysis: My boy, Gregory Polanco. Love this guy. He’s a solid cash game and GPP option night in and night out and he goes vastly underowned by many. Teheran has improved his usual home/road split suckage this year, showing prowess more on the road than at home so far. Polanco has back-to-back 3 hit games coming into tonight and he now gets to tee off on Teheran’s .364 wOBA and 44.3% hard contact vs. lefties. Get him into your lineup!
Francisco Liriano – SP – Pirates – vs. Atlanta Braves
PvB: 23-for-112, 3 2B, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 13 BB, 27 Ks
Analysis: I was off the Juan Nicasio bandwagon last night, but I certainly am not off the Francisco Liriano train. ‘Cisco is coming off an 8 ER start against the Cubs, but now he gets to twirl to a team that is the epitome of mediocrity. The Braves are the WORST team against lefties. Danny Duffy and Jonathon Niese are a couple of recent lefty starters that have produced, so now it’s Liriano’s time to get in on the action. The Braves are dead last in wOBA (.245) and ISO (.065) vs. lefties. They also strike out 25% of the time, one of the highest strikeout rates on the slate. If Liriano can keep the walks to a minimum, he should have no trouble pitching deep and picking up the win.
Lastly, we have our second BvP lineup of the week. Last night had to get switched around with Drew Stubbs out of the lineup after Eric Surkamp was sent down for Jesse Hahn. I screwed up the lineup using Jaime Garcia, ugh.
Anyway, we must rebound, so here’s tonight’s lineup. Just once I would like to not have to switch it around due to someone being out of the lineup. That’s the risk I take though making a lineup this early.
Lineup Narrative: Chase Utley, Carlos Correa and Evan Longoria are my off-the-board plays. Longo has had some success against R.A. Dickey, he’s comfortable at the plate and is at the Rogers’ Centre. Correa vs. Mat Latos, that can’t end up good for Mat and Utley is a lefty bat at the top of the order for the Dodgers facing Nick Tropeano (who could be a sneaky GPP play tonight though). I flirted with Jedd Gyroko vs. a lefty in Chris Rusin, but I decided to use all of the salary knowing that Utley should be in the lineup.
