And our final BvP for MVP is tonight. It’s been a fun ride this season with ups and downs.
This was the first year BvP for MVP has been graded by our site. Needless to say, i think you can have lots of success supplementing BvP data to help you with your lineup construction.
As I have said many times this season, the numbers as they are in print don’t translate to instant DFS success, and stacking a lineup with guys who have strong BvP numbers doesn’t translate to cashing consistently. Variance does play a part in the game and even the 40-for-50 guy (no it doesn’t exist) might go 0-for-3 against the same pitcher.
What I try to do is to provide you strong BvP bats that you can insert into your lineups three times per week. Maybe it helps you break a tie or you feel the price plus the numbers make sense. What i’ve come to find is pitchers are the more reliable BvP players. The proof is in the pudding as I am the leader in the clubhouse of Expert pitcher grading going into this week. Even if you don’t need me to tell you Max Scherzer is a great play, his performance against an opponent is a great way to support that thought.
Anyway, I hope you have enjoyed this side of DFS touting. I have enjoyed providing it to you, and like our leader Greg, I hope it helped you cash big time.
I really like the formate I changed to down the stretch, but since this is our last one, I just might pick a few more players than usual, but not too many. Don’t want to water down your choices.
Remember, even beyond tonight, check out dailybaseballdata.com for all daily BvP data.
It’s a 14-game slate, so let’s get to it!
Matt Carpenter – 2B/3B – Cardinals – vs. Anthony deSclafani – DraftKings – $4,500
| BB% vs. R | ISO vs. R | Hard% vs. R | BAA vs. R | wOBA vs. R | wRC+ vs. R | Carpenter BvP |
| 15.3 % | 0.285 | 47.5 % | 0.285 | 0.403 | 154 | 5-for-9, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB |
Analysis: You can see Matt Carpenter has been lights out against RH pitchers this season. Carp dropped the ball for us earlier this week against Wily Peralta at Miller Park. But now he’s at home where he has performed much better all season long. I am not going to let recency bias deter me from having lots of exposure to Carpenter, but likely at 3B because there are an S-ton of 2B I love tonight.
Rougned Odor – 2B – Rangers – vs. Doug Fister – DraftKings – $4,900
| BB% vs. R | ISO vs. R | Hard% vs. R | BAA vs. R | wOBA vs. R | wRC+ vs. R | Odor BvP |
| 2.1 % | 0.24 | 34.0 % | 0.275 | 0.339 | 108 | 3-for-11, 1 2B, 1 HR |
Analysis: Just going to ride the wave here. Back-2-back, 3-hit performances at home for Rougie, including 3 HRs with one a walk-off to deep center. Fister is a groundball pitcher, but has always struggled against lefties in his career. I expect Rougie to be in the 5 spot tonight, but it’s been so humid in Texas this week. It feels hotter than it really is and that only will help balls fly at Rangers Ballpark tonight.
Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros – vs. A.J. Griffin – DraftKings – $5,500
| BB% vs. R | ISO vs. R | Hard% vs. R | BAA vs. R | wOBA vs. R | wRC+ vs. R | Altuve BvP |
| 8.0 % | 0.215 | 33.4 % | 0.351 | 0.404 | 159 | 5-for-13, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB |
Analysis: On to the other side of the dugout where the all-everything Altuve has a premium pitching matchup as well. Normally, Altuve is targeted against lefties, but Altuve is no slough against the RH pitching either. Griffin has struggled with batters on both sides of the plate this season. Factor in the weather and Altuve’s .411 road batting average, and you have a great cash game play despite the hefty price tag.
Brian Dozier – 2B – Twins – vs. Carlos Rodon – DraftKings – $5,500
| BB% vs. L | ISO vs. L | Hard% vs. L | BAA vs. L | wOBA vs. L | wRC+ vs. L | Dozier BvP |
| 10.6 % | 0.37 | 41.6 % | 0.306 | 0.432 | 175 | 4-for-12, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB |
Analysis: I think Dozier is equally as cash game viable tonight at home against lefty Carlos Rodon, but I bet he goes underowned quite a bit because he’s a Twin and the Twins don’t score a lot of runs. Rodon has improved this season, but I think like how Target Field sets up for Dozier, a right-handed hitter.
Danny Valencia – 3B/OF – Athletics – vs. David Price – DraftKings – $3,400 – Darling of the Night
| BB% vs. L | ISO vs. L | Hard% vs. L | BAA vs. L | wOBA vs. L | wRC+ vs. L | Valencia BvP |
| 9.4 % | 0.229 | 36.9 % | 0.343 | 0.418 | 170 | 12-for-20, 3 2B, 4 BB |
Analysis: David Price has struggled this season, and with his lack of playoff cajones, I don’t see how Price can be relied up in the playoffs next month. With that said, he gets an easy matchup in the Oakland A’s, but I will be targeting Danny Valencia a ton tonight. At a relatively cheap price, I think Valencia can be relied upon against Price, who has 22 homeruns allowed. Valencia is solid against lefty pitching and with Thor on the mound, you will need some value in your lineup.
Mike Trout – OF – Angels – vs. Ariel Miranda – DraftKings – $5,300
| BB% vs. L | ISO vs. L | Hard% vs. L | BAA vs. L | wOBA vs. L | wRC+ vs. L | Trout BvP |
| 16.1 % | 0.155 | 40.0 % | 0.282 | 0.362 | 132 | 0-for-0, 2 BB |
Analysis: While Trout is not valuable tonight against Miranda, he is certainly valuable on your fantasy team when he faces a lefty. Trout sat out the last game to rest, so he should be back in there tonight. There are a few guys that I will always play against a certain handedness because of their consistent success. Altuve, Donaldson and Nelly Cruz against lefties are a few, but Mike Trout vs. southpaws also is a must. Miranda has been mediocre this season, so Trout should be very safe to deploy everywhere.
Odubel Herrera – OF – Phillies – vs. Joel de la Cruz – DraftKings – $2,000
| BB% vs. R | ISO vs. R | Hard% vs. R | BAA vs. R | wOBA vs. R | wRC+ vs. R | Herrera BvP |
| 10.1 % | 0.159 | 31.0 % | 0.299 | 0.354 | 121 | 3-for-6, 1 2B, 1 HR |
Analysis: Speaking of value, I might have Herrera in every lineup on DraftKings at the ridiculous price of $2,000. I know he’s a Philly, but de la Cruz doesn’t have much upside and has struggled so far this season. I feel like this was a pricing mistake by DraftKings, but we must take advantage of it. Herrera is a beast when he’s right at the plate, so hopefully he feels comfortable tonight at home.
Charlie Blackmon – OF – Rockies – vs. Robbie Ray – DraftKings – $4,800 – GPP Play of the Night
| BB% vs. L | ISO vs. L | Hard% vs. L | BAA vs. L | wOBA vs. L | wRC+ vs. L | Blackmon BvP |
| 6.0 % | 0.113 | 24.1 % | 0.346 | 0.379 | 119 | 9-for-14, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB |
Analysis: Charlie Blackmon is one of my favorite plays of the evening. He’s killed Robbie Ray in his career and now we get this matchup at Coors. Many will bypass Blackmon because of him being a lefty and facing a lefty. But as you can see, Blackmon handles lefties very well this season and with a price under $5,000 for a leadoff spot at Coors, you can’t go wrong there in my opinion.
Noah Syndergaard – SP – Mets – vs. Washington Nationals – DraftKings – $12,200
| K/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERA | SIERA | Syndergaard BvP |
| 10.68 | 0.58 | 0.333 | 2.55 | 2.9 | 27-for-101, 3 2B, 3 HR, 7 BB, 30 Ks |
Analysis: The King of Syndergaard, Thor, is up against the Nationals tonight at Citi Field. Should this matchup have been at Nationals Park, I might not be that bullish on Thor. But he’s at home, where he has been dominant, and his peripherals suggest that things should stay pat for what’s left of the regular season.
