Glad to see that I am still sitting on top of the leaderboard with my hitter recommendations so far this season. Now, I just need to get more consistent with my pitcher picks. Tuesday features a full 15-game night slate to dissect. Despite the big slate the pitchers that I like the best presented themselves quite easily. The hitting side took a little more digging but there should be some hits in those bats.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Yu Darvish (FD-$10,700 / DK-$10,700)
I am going to give Darvish the edge over Max Scherzer tonight, especially on DraftKings with a price tag over $2,000 cheaper. Scherzer projects for more strikeouts and is a bigger favorite but I expect Darvish to allow fewer hits and runs while still getting around 6 Ks and the potential of a win. Darvish tossed six innings allowing one run with five strikeouts against the A’s in Texas earlier this season and has a 29.8% strikeout rate against A’s hitters over the last two-plus seasons (in 77 PA) so the upside is there.
Value
Michael Fulmer (FD-$9,100 / DK-$8,900)
Fulmer may be my favorite pitcher on the entire slate taking into account salary and opponent. He offers quite a bit of savings from Scherzer and Darvish and has just as much upside with a matchup against the strikeout-prone Rays. After striking out at the third highest rate against righties last season (24.2%), they are at it again this year leading the league with a 28.1% strikeout rate. Fulmer also had great success against the Rays last season with double-digit strikeouts in each of his two starts while allowing just one run over 14 innings. He is worth both Cash and GPP consideration.
Darkhorse
Luis Severino (FD-$7,700 / DK-$6,500)
Severino flashed his upside in his last start with 11 strikeouts over seven innings against the Rays. He might not have quite that high of upside in tonight’s matchup with the White Sox but they have struggled against righties so far this season with a 24.2% strikeout rate and a bottom 10 ISO, wOBA and wRC+. He might not be worth Cash game consideration but is an excellent cheap GPP option to fit in some high-priced bats.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Orioles vs. Bronson Arroyo
The 40-year-old Arroyo is off to a poor start allowing 5+ runs in each of his first two starts including two long balls in each game. He has always allowed a lot of contact and has a 55.6% fly ball rate so far this season so stack up your Orioles.
Chris Davis (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,700) – It might be an upset if Davis does not take Arroyo deep tonight. Too bad Davis and Trey Mancini are listed at the same position so you can’t play both on most sites but Mancini could be a good pivot in some GPP lineups.
Manny Machado (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,900) – Machado is batting just .175 so far this season but has reverse splits when it comes to power with a .252 ISO against righties last season.
Adam Jones (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,500) – Jones also offers reverse splits with a higher ISO (.195) against righties last season.
Seth Smith (FD-$2,600 / DK-$3,700) – Smith bats leadoff against righties with a career .358 wOBA and .202 ISO versus right-handers.
Indians vs. Phil Hughes
The Indians stack didn’t work too well on Monday but I’ll go back to it again tonight against Phil Hughes with the wind blowing out to right field (14 mph). Much like Arroyo, Hughes allows a lot of contact and has had trouble with the long ball allowing 1.68 HR/9 in each of the last two seasons with the Twins.
Edwin Encarnacion (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,500) – Encarnacion is riding a four-game hitting streak and has made hard contact 60% of the time during that stretch, the extra base hits will come soon.
Francisco Lindor (FD-$4,100 / DK-$4,700) – Lindor is off to a good start this season hitting .346 with a .452 wOBA and four homers.
Michael Brantley (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,500) – Brantley may be starting to regain his stroke from a couple years ago with a four-game hitting streak with two long balls including one last night in Minnesota.
Jose Ramirez (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,000) – Ramirez has multiple hits in four of his last five games.
Contrarian Stack
Nationals vs. Mike Foltynewicz
The Nationals might be a little off the radar tonight with just a 4.31 implied run total which is only the 8th highest on the slate. However, they should be in a good spot against Foltynewicz who has allowed a career .369 wOBA and 1.74 HR/9 to lefties.
Bryce Harper (FD-$4,700 / DK-$5,100) – Harper blasted two homers on Sunday and has a .394 wOBA and .242 ISO versus righties in his career.
Daniel Murphy (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,400) – Murphy is picking up right where he left off last season with a .396 average and .449 wOBA so far this season. He had a .277 ISO on the road versus righties last season.
Adam Eaton (FD-$3,700 / DK-$3,700) – Eaton is coming off a three-hit effort on Sunday and has a .434 OBP hitting at the top of the Nationals lineup this season.
Anthony Rendon (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,600) – Rendon is struggling to start the season but has hits in four straight games including a couple doubles. He has also gone deep off Foltynewicz once in three at-bats.
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