Clayton Kershaw or Coors Field, Coors Field or Clayton Kershaw? That will be the question DFS players will need to answer for the 14-game Tuesday night slate. Weather will also be a factor to pay close attention to with rain expected for a few games and wind that seems like it will be blowing in 15-20 mph in almost every stadium. A lot to sort out so let’s get to it.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Clayton Kershaw (FD-$12,700 / DK-$14,300)
Well, I am opting for Kershaw over Coors Field tonight. With the game at Coors expecting cold temperatures, wind blowing in from center field and an umpire calling the game that typically suppresses runs I have a complete fade of Nationals and Rockies hitters. So paying up for Kershaw, even on DraftKings ($14,300, WOW!) is the way I plan to go tonight. Kershaw dominates the Giants (as he does most teams) allowing just a .193 wOBA with a 31.3% strikeout rate against Giants’ hitters over the last two seasons. The wind might be blowing out in San Francisco even more than usual but with Kershaw pitching and a pitcher’s umpire behind the plate, I don’t expect many balls to even have a chance to take advantage of the wind.
Value
Wade Miley (FD-$8,100 / DK-$6,900)
Both of my pitcher recommendation other than Kershaw will be focused on filling out the #2 pitcher on DraftKings. Even when fading high priced bats in Coors Field, we will still need to find value for our second pitcher on DK. Miley offers a nice combination of value and upside in a home start against the Rays. Miley has a 33.3% strikeout rate through his first three starts this season and while the Rays have done some damage against lefties this year they also strike out a lot (28.6%) which should give Miley a solid floor. There is some rain in the forecast in Baltimore so watch the weather reports leading up to game time but if the game plays Miley should be able to take advantage of the cool temps and wind blowing in from right field.
Darkhorse
Patrick Corbin (FD-$7,800 / DK-$5,000)
Corbin is another DraftKings special to offer salary relief when pairing him with Kershaw. Corbin put together a solid outing against the Padres in his last start with eight strikeouts over six innings while allowing three runs. While this game will be in hitter-friendly Arizona instead of pitcher-friendly San Diego, Corbin should still be able to control the Padres’ who have a bottom six wOBA and wRC+ against lefties this season. If you want to get Kershaw you will need to make some sacrifices but Miley and Corbin are a couple solid low priced options that could make it worth your while.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Diamondbacks vs. Clayton Richard
With a complete fade of Coors Field, we will travel to “Coors Field South” in Arizona and pick on the “other” Clayton on the slate tonight, Clayton Richard. Richard has had mixed results so far this season with two solid starts and two poor starts. Richard pitched well against the Diamondbacks in his last start but the Diamondback hit much better at home leading the league with a .386 wOBA at home so far this season. You want to attack Richard with righties which the Diamondbacks have.
AJ Pollock (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,300) – Pollock is picking up where he left off two years ago, hitting for average with some power, speed and scoring runs hitting atop the Diamondbacks lineup. Pollock has a .397 wOBA and .269 ISO against lefties at home in his career.
Paul Goldschmidt (FD-$4,500 / DK-$5,000) – Goldschmidt got a day off yesterday so he should be well rested to tee off against a lefty at home where he has a career .459 wOBA and .297 ISO.
Yasmany Tomas (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,000) – Tomas has a .393 wOBA against lefties in his young career and is 5-for-10 with a homer off Richard in his career.
Chris Owings (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,600) – Owings had a big day at the plate yesterday with a home run and a steal. He should hit near the top of the order again tonight against a lefty.
Twins vs. Andrew Cashner
After pitching most of his career in pitcher-friendly parks, Cashner now must content with pitching in hitter-friendly Texas especially as temperatures rise. Temps should be in the mid-80s on Tuesday with the wind blowing in from right field. The one thing the wind can’t help Cashner with is walks which he has given up at an alarming rate so far this season (5.56 per 9). Look for the Twins to play “small ball” primarily piling up runs on walks, singles and doubles.
Brian Dozier (FD-$3,500 / DK-$5,000) – Dozier has collected hits in four straight games including doubles in each of his last two games. Feels like he is on the cusp of a power binge with a 56.3% hard hit rate in his last five games.
Max Kepler (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,200) – Kepler performs his best on the road against righties with a career .359 wOBA and .262 ISO.
Miguel Sano (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,600) – Sano only has two hits over his last five games but he has taken five walks and always has the capability to hit a long ball or two.
Jason Castro (FD-$2,500 / DK-$3,200) – Castro has walked 17.5% of the time this season and has hit both of his homers off righties this season with a .178 ISO against righties in his career.
Contrarian Stack
Athletics vs. JC Ramirez
I wanted to find a cheap stack option that could allow you to pay up for Kershaw and the A’s fit the profile nicely. Ramirez has allowed 1.46 HR/9 in his career so far and has a 6.97 ERA through his first two starts (although that should regress with a solid 2.87 xFIP). The A’s are not an ideal team to stack but they have enough solid bats to post a solid fantasy output. Watch the starting lineup and look to stack the 1-5 or 2-6 hitters.
Khris Davis (FD-$3,600 / DK-$3,600) – Davis is hitless in his last four games but with the last couple of days off, look for him to produce with a career .353 wOBA and .259 ISO against righties.
Stephen Vogt (FD-$2,700 / DK-$2,900) – Vogt is one of the few catchers that hits in the top half of the lineup and performs much better against righties on the road with a career .356 wOBA and .192 ISO.
Jed Lowrie (FD-$2,300 / DK-$2,600) – Lowrie is heating up batting .400 with a pair of doubles over his last four games.
Matt Joyce (FD-$2,100 / DK-$2,300) – If Joyce is batting seventh or lower then consider swapping to a hitter near the top of the order such as Yonder Alonso or Jaff Decker. Joyce has .346 wOBA against righties in his career.
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