It feels like Opening Day with all of the high-quality pitching options on the 15-game Tuesday night slate. It is difficult to narrow the list down to my favorite three options so feel free to venture off my list if you see a pitcher that you like or fits better with your hitters. Even with all the good pitchers on the mound, there are still some gas cans to pick on plus some games in good hitting environments such as Coors Field, Yankee Stadium, and Globe Life Park.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Max Scherzer (FD-$11,500 / DK-$13,200)
Scherzer or Chris Sale? Sale or Scherzer? It’s a tough call at the top of the pitching list but I’m going to give a slight edge to Scherzer. He is a bigger favorite than Sale according to Vegas even though he is on the road in Miami. Scherzer pitched well in Miami in June allowing two runs on just two hits over eight innings while recording 11 strikeouts. He has registered at least nine strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 starts. I don’t think you can go wrong with either option and both are worth Cash and GPP consideration.
Value
Jose Berrios (FD-$9,200 / DK-$7,700)
Berrios is the perfect value option to pair with Scherzer (or Sale) in Cash games on two-pitcher sites. He has been roughed up a little bit in two of his last three starts but those were games against a couple of the top hitting teams in the majors (Astros/Dodgers). It is a different story tonight when he faces the Padres who have the highest strikeout rate (25.4%) and rank in the bottom six in wOBA and wRC+ versus righties this season. Berrios will be popular on DraftKings so he might be worth fading in GPPs.
Darkhorse
Chris Archer (FD-$9,900 / DK-$9,600)
With so many good mid-priced pitchers on the slate, it is not worth getting too cute and using a cheap option. It also means that none of the middle-priced options will be over owned so you can just pick your favorite and go with it. Archer is my favorite from the mid-tier due to his big strikeout upside and history against the Astros. In 106 plate appearances against Astros’ hitters, he has allowed just a .215 wOBA with a 26.4% strikeout rate. The Astros lineup is also depleted a little bit even though they put up 14 runs last night. He is too risky for Cash games but makes for a great GPP option.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Rockies vs. Steven Matz
Matz gave up seven runs in just one inning to the Rockies earlier this season. What is shocking is that game was not at Coors Field. Matz won’t be so “lucky” tonight as he faces the Rockies at Coors Field in a game with a 12.5 Vegas run total. Matz has allowed a .373 wOBA and 2.19 HR/9 to righties this season.
Nolan Arenado (FD-$4,800 / DK-$5,400) – Arenado is the play of the night tonight, similar to the night we went off for three homers a couple of weeks ago. He has a .553 wOBA and .442 ISO at home versus lefties.
Trevor Story (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,500) – Story has a .428 wOBA and .405 ISO at home versus lefties this year.
Jonathan Lucroy (FD-$3,200 / DK-$2,900) – Lucroy should make his debut for the Rockies with a lefty on the mound and his cheap salary and ballpark will make him a good and highly owned option.
Charlie Blackmon (FD-$4,900 / DK-$5,500) – While Blackmon is not a righty he is 4-for-6 with a pair of doubles off Matz in his career and has a .500 wOBA and .371 ISO versus lefties at home this season.
Yankees vs. Anibal Sanchez
Sanchez has been crushed by righties this season allowing a .394 wOBA, 2.51 HR/9 and a 45.6% hard hit rate this season. The Yankees will be popular but you might be able to differentiate your lineup by ignoring the top of the lineup.
Aaron Judge (FD-$4,900 / DK-$4,900) – Judge has a .498 wOBA and .446 ISO versus right-handed pitchers at home this season and a 46.9% hard hit rate versus righties.
Gary Sanchez (FD-$3,600 / DK-$5,100) – Sanchez has a .345 wOBA and .216 ISO at home versus righties this year with a 36.5% hard hit rate.
Didi Gregorius (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,100) – Gregorius is 3-for-8 with a homer off Sanchez in his career and has a .236 ISO versus righties this season.
Matt Holliday (FD-$2,500 / DK-$3,500) – Holliday has been cold recently but he has gone 8-for-17 with a pair of homers off Sanchez in his career.
Contrarian Stack
Mariners vs. Nick Martinez
While the Mariners will have some ownership they will still be lower owned than many with just the 12th highest Vegas implied run total. Martinez has allowed a .383 wOBA and 2.06 HR/9 to lefties this season. He hasn’t started a game since June 25 so he will likely see limited innings giving way to a Rangers’ bullpen that has the 8th worst ERA (4.53) this year.
Robinson Cano (FD-$3,100 / DK-$3,700) – Cano has a .371 wOBA and .260 ISO on the road versus right-handed pitcher this year and has hit one long ball in nine career at-bats against Martinez.
Kyle Seager (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,000) – Seager has crushed Martinez going 7-for-11 with a pair of doubles and a home run. He also has four doubles over the last three games.
Nelson Cruz (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,000) – Cruz has extra-base hits in each of his last two games and carries a .374 wOBA and .314 ISO on the road versus righties this season.
Ben Gamel (FD-$2,900 / DK-$4,100) – Gamel just lost his 16-game hitting streak last night but still has a .393 wOBA on the road versus righties this season.
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