We have 14 games for Tuesday night’s MLB slate. A slate that includes a lot of high-priced ace pitchers yet a “value ace” will likely be very highly owned on FanDuel and DraftKings. Favorable ballparks and good weather conditions for hitters didn’t seem to help much on Monday’s slate but we’ll see if Tuesday can be a different story and produce more offensive fireworks.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Alex Wood (FD-$9,600 / DK-$9,600)
How are FanDuel and DraftKings pricing algorithms only putting a $9,600 salary on Wood pitching at home as a huge favorite against the White Sox? In any case, I expect him to be extremely chalky, I mean maybe even over 80% owned in Cash games, chalky. Sure, he hasn’t been quite as good recently with five or fewer strikeouts in each of his last five starts and two games allowing four or more runs during that stretch. However, he is a huge favorite who should be a lock for a win and will face a White Sox team that will be without a DH in the NL park and have the eighth highest strikeout rate (23.2%) against lefties over the last 30 days to go along with a bottom 10 wOBA, ISO and wRC+. Eat the chalk in Cash games but feel free to grab one of the pricier pitching options in GPPs to differentiate your lineup.
Value
Dinelson Lamet (FD-$8,300 / DK-$8,500)
Lamet has pitched very well over his last four starts with a 2.31 ERA and 24.7% strikeout rate. Sure, he hasn’t faced the strongest offenses during the last four games (Reds, Giants and Pirates (twice)) but he gets another weak offense on Tuesday with the Phillies coming to town. The Phillies have the sixth highest strikeout rate (23.5%) versus righties and rank in the bottom six in wOBA, ISO and wRC+. Lamet is a solid Cash game option on two-pitcher sites and GPP option on any site.
Darkhorse
Mark Leiter (FD-$6,400 / DK-$6,800)
I am interested in both sides of the Padres/Phillies matchup on Tuesday with two of the worst offenses in the league playing at a pitcher-friendly ballpark in San Diego. Leiter has been building up to rejoin the rotation pitching in long relief. His last two outings were 4+ innings where he allowed just one run over 9 1/3 innings with 16 strikeouts. In three starts earlier this season, he had a solid 3.31 ERA with a 23.5% strikeout rate. He will face a Padres’ team that has the third highest strikeout rate (25.2%) against right-handed pitching this season. Leiter is a solid, cheap GPP option on any site.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Indians vs. Bartolo Colon
Colon has been decent since joining the Twins with a 4.02 ERA but with a low strikeout rate (12.1%) and high hard contact rate (44.3%) he is still a pitcher that can have a blow-up start against a good offense. The Indians are a good offense and got even better with the addition of Jay Bruce. The Indians put up 28 runs in four games during their last visit to Minnesota.
Jay Bruce (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,500) – Bruce has six hits over his last four games and has hit two homers off Colon in eight career at-bats. He has a .372 wOBA and .266 ISO versus righties this season.
Jose Ramirez (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,500) – Ramirez has doubled in four straight games and has a .391 wOBA and .247 ISO versus righties this year.
Jason Kipnis (FD-$2,400 / DK-$3,000) – Kipnis is dirt cheap for a hitter batting near the top of the order in a great matchup. Kipnis is 3-for-9 with a pair of doubles and a homer off Colon in his career.
Edwin Encarnacion (FD-$ / DK-$4,500) – Encarnacion is hot with three homers in his last two games and four in his last four games. He has a .391 wOBA and .326 ISO on the road versus righties this season.
Dodgers vs. Miguel Gonzalez
You never know what you are going to get from Gonzalez. In his last two starts, he was crushed by the Red Sox giving up seven runs in 1.2 innings and shut down the Astros pitching eight innings while allowing just one run. Home and road splits seem to be part of the reason for Gonzalez who has a solid 3.31 ERA at home but a 6.27 mark on the road. He will be pitching on the road in LA on Tuesday so look for “Bad Gonzalez” to show up.
Cody Bellinger (FD-$4,400 / DK-$5,400) – Bellinger has seven hits including a homer over his last three games and has a .413 wOBA and .386 ISO versus righties this season.
Chris Taylor (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,800) – Taylor has homered in two of his last four games and is 6-for-10 off Gonzalez in his career.
Corey Seager (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,800) – While he is not as good against righties, a .374 wOBA and .197 ISO isn’t exactly bad either.
Yasmani Grandal (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,600) – I’ll repeat what I always say “play Grandal at home against a righty”. It is a two-year trend with him posting a .384 wOBA and .270 ISO at home versus righties this year.
Contrarian Stack
Cardinals vs. Rick Porcello
The Cardinals have been swinging some hot bats over the last week and will face Porcello in Boston with the wind blowing out to left. Porcello has allowed eight home runs over his last four starts and has a 1.66 HR/9 rate this season. Both lefties and righties have fared well against Porcello with a 1.78 HR/9 rate to lefties and 1.55 rate to righties.
Paul DeJong (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,300) – DeJong has four straight games with at least two hits and has homered in back-to-back games. He has a .358 wOBA and .257 ISO versus righties this season.
Dexter Fowler (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,300) – Fowler his batting .400 with six extra-base hits since returning from the DL (7 games). He carries a .365 wOBA and .249 ISO against righties into the game.
Matt Carpenter (FD-$4,000 / DK-$4,100) – Carpenter has his best production on the road versus right-handed pitchers with a .391 wOBA and .257 ISO this season.
Tommy Pham (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,400) – Pham is riding a six-game hitting streak and has crushed righties on the road this season with a .442 wOBA and .263 ISO.
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